We Bought This 200 Year Old American Banking Icon When Nobody Else Wanted To Own It

How extreme pessimism on Wall Street created a huge opportunity.

Citibank is one of the oldest and most recognisable names in global finance. It was among the first American banks to expand internationally, helped popularise modern consumer banking and credit card services and sits alongside JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo as a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system. Regulators consider it “too big to fail.” And yet, for years, almost nobody wanted to own its stock.

Why Citigroup Was Unloved

Investors felt the bank was not generating profits as efficiently as its rivals. Regulatory scrutiny, rising compliance costs, and the challenge of upgrading ageing internal systems weighed heavily. Its sprawling global operations were seen as complex and hard to manage. Repeated restructuring efforts created uncertainty about when meaningful improvements would actually arrive. Although the stock appeared cheap on traditional valuation measures, markets remained sceptical and kept the price under pressure for years.

The result? Citibank’s stock fell from $591 in Nov 2020 to nearly $38 in Oct 2023. One of the most dramatic falls of any large cap bank on Wall Street.

Where We Saw the Opportunity ?

That extreme pessimism created something rare: a situation where the margin of safety was heavily tilted in our favour.

Using Virgin price action analysis, we identified a fair valuation zone of $37–$38 in mid Oct 2023. The chart and the valuation identified are below.

The white band is what we thought would be a right place to accumuate

time stamp of valuations identified for CITI

On 27th October 2023, Citibank made a low of $35.17.

The Outcome

From our entry near $38, Citibank has surged to around $145 , delivering a remarkable return in under 3years. Updated chart below.

the journey from 38 to 145 USD

What was once one of Wall Street’s most ignored banking stocks has quietly turned into a big winner, proving how powerful investing can be when quality meets right purchase price. Buying right matters. Buying low matters.

Valuation Mantra is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst firm (INH000022215) focused on long-term value investing with emphasis on downside risk protection. NISM Certified | 18+ years of industry experience.

If you want low-valuation ideas for Indian & US stocks, reach out:

WhatsApp: https://wa.me/917259282826

Website: www.valuationmantra.com

X: https://x.com/nareshbahrain

SEBI Regn: INH000022215 | NISM Certified. 18+ yrs industry experience.

Disclosures: https://www.valuationmantra.com/Disclosures.pdf