106th Rose Bowl: Will the Badgers Wear Red Pants?

No team has ever lost four-straight Rose Bowl games … right?

Source: Tournament of Roses

Disclaimer: This was written from a Wisconsin fan’s perspective.

I love the Rose Bowl. I’ve been to the Granddaddy of Them All twice (2011 and 2012), and I got chills both times. It’s such an unreal, surreal venue. And as I’m watching the 2020 Rose Bowl from the couch, I’ll still get chills as the Badgers face off against the Oregon Ducks in a rematch of the 2012 Rose Bowl, in which the two teams set a record for the most combined points scored in a single half (56). I would not expect that again, but I also didn’t expect the Badgers to make it to the Rose Bowl this year, so who the hell knows. The Ducks are led by QB Justin Herbert, who was a Heisman Trophy candidate coming into the season but he wasn’t even invited to the ceremony in New York. You hate to see that. Regardless, he is expected to be a top-10 selection in the 2020 NFL Draft so he will probably do just fine for himself in the long run, unless he gets drafted by a crappy team and/or flames out after two-ish years in the NFL. (Money-wise, he would still probably will be OK but whatever.)

Regardless, could you imagine if Wisconsin QB Jack Coan, a lax bro extraordinaire, outplays Herbert, who coincidentally also looks like a lax bro extraordinaire, in the 106th Rose Bowl? Maybe some of you can, maybe some of you think I’m completely out of mind for asking such a question, and maybe some of you are wondering what a lax bro extraordinaire is. Here are the facts, though: Coan (4) has less interceptions than Herbert (5) and has a better completion percentage (70 > 66.7%). Did I compare sample sizes, a la attempts, for both quarterbacks? No, because I don’t want to waste your time. Enough about Jacky Heisman, let’s get into a breakdown of the Ducks.

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FYI, in prior years, I’ve gone way too in depth on the Badgers’ opponent, but ain’t no one got time to read a billion words. I also tried to break down plays via gifs, but I realized I have no idea what I’m doing in that regard so I’m going to provide you with some stats, some humor, and predict that the Badgers will win the 2020 Rose Bowl because no team in the history of the Granddaddy of Them All has lost four consecutive Rose Bowls. (Don’t check me on that.)

UPDATE (prior to publication): I think I wrote too many words. Let me know @ Sheild92 on Twitter and Instagram.

Offense

*18th in ESPN’s SP+*

Herbert, the Academic Heisman winner (#nerd), threw 32 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Two of the five interceptions came against Arizona State. He completed roughly 67% of his passes (272/408) to go along with over 3,000 yards. Judging on those stats alone, Herbert — second in school history in passing yards (10,403) and touchdowns (95) — is better than he was last year but I’ll let the professionals voice their opinion about the 6-foot-6 gunslinger. (Herbert needs about 400 passing yards against UW to become the school’s all-time leader in that category.)

***ESPN’s Mel Kiper (after the Arizona State game):* **He can be a maddening evaluation, though overall this season he has shown improved accuracy and better decision-making. As I wrote in May, he just looks like a potential №1 pick — great size, a powerful arm to make every throw, limited interceptions, good athleticism.

***ESPN’s Todd McShay:* **Herbert still has some consistency issues, but he has great, 6-foot-6 size, good mobility and a really live arm.

Anonymous scout (via Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller): I’ve never understood the love with this kid. He might look the part, but he’ll get someone fired. He doesn’t have it.

Compare that to the following evaluation from October 2018.

Anonymous NFL evaluator (via Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller): He’s a bigger Marcus Mariota is what one longtime evaluator said of Herbert this summer. … You watch guys like Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck … that’s the type of player he is in terms of traits and potential.

In sum, he’s tall, athletic, and has a big arm but his play is up and down. All of those attributes also describe a combination of two former UW quarterbacks: Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave. Look how that ended up. Seriously, though, Herbert has been not been particularly sharp in the last three games: 52/92 (56.5%), 671 yards (~224 yards/game), four touchdowns, and two interceptions.

It would be great to see Zack Baun (12.5 sacks) and Chris Orr (11.5 sacks) make Herbert’s last collegiate game an absolute nightmare, and there is certainly a chance that happens. The Ducks’ offensive line allowed 1.9 sacks per game during the 2019 season, which ranked 57th in the country. The unit has also allow at least three sacks in the last four games. Not to mention, Wisconsin ranks third in the country in sacks (59). Despite that, protecting Herbert’s blindside is sophomore Penei Sewell, the 2019 Outland Trophy winner, which is given annually to the nation’s best interior lineman. Sewell did not allow a sack in 466 pass-blocking snaps and allowed only seven QB pressures.

Source: Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Behind Herbert is a trio of running backs. C.J. Verdell (left) rushed for over 1,000 yards this season and averaged over 6 yards/carry. Verdell had 208 yards against Utah’s defense in the conference title game, which included touchdown runs of 70 yards and 31 yards. Prior to that game, the Utes led the nation in rush yards allowed (56.3 yards/game). Travis Dye, who has yet to score a touchdown this season but is second on the team in carries (105), also averaged over 6 yards/carry. Cyrus Habibi-Likio, who is third on the team in carries (85), actually leads the team in rushing touchdowns (10).

The Ducks have two wide receivers that have more than 50 receptions (Johnny Johnson III, 55; Jaylon Redd, 50). However, they only have four players on the team that have at least 20 receptions. Comparatively, the Badgers have seven but only have one wide receiver with more than 50 receptions (Quintez Cephus). Johnson III leads the team in receptions and receiving yards (818), and is tied for the lead in touchdowns (7). Redd, who is roughly my same height (5-foot-8; I’m taller by an inch, not to brag) but 11x faster and weighs significantly less, hasn’t scored a touchdown since the October 19th game against Washington, in which he scored twice. On the other hand, he scored at least one touchdown over a six-game stretch this season, spanning from Game 2 against Nevada to the Washington game. Point being, he’s due.

Third on the team in receiving touchdowns is Juwan Johnson, who played in the 2017 Rose Bowl with Penn State. The Nittany Lions lost that game to USC. Looks like Juwan is going to lose another Rose Bowl. Bummer.

Tight end Jacob Breeland scored six receiving touchdowns, good for second on the team, to go along with 26 catches for 405 yards. He hasn’t played since the October 11th game against Colorado because of a knee injury and won’t play in the Rose Bowl. I’m mentioning all of this because he’ll be playing on Sundays and to thank the good lord above that he isn’t playing. In his absence, Spencer Webb contributed three touchdowns and just over 200 yards.

I’m not overly concerned about Wisconsin’s ability to hold the Ducks’ rushing attack in check as the Badgers rank 8th in rush defense, allowing slightly over 100 rush yards/game. Against non-Ohio State running backs, they allowed 83 rush/yards game, which included 277 yards on the ground against Nebraska. Let me tell you this for free, though: if the Badgers give up over 200 yards on the ground against Oregon, they will lose the game. Regardless, what I am more concerned about is which UW secondary will show up: The one that played very well against Minnesota, or the one that played horribly against Purdue’s ninth-string quarterback?

One area in which the Wisconsin defense has a distinct advantage is on third downs. The Badgers are second in the country in third down defense as their opponents are only converting 27% of their third down attempts. Oregon ranks 39th in third down conversation rate (42%).

I’m confident the Badgers are going to win, but Oregon’s uniforms don’t bode well for that prediction. (Source: Uniswag/Twitter)

Defense

*14th in ESPN’s SP+*

The Ducks are led on defense by senior linebacker Troy Dye (team-leading 75 tackles) and true freshman defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux (team-leading nine sacks). Thibodeaux, who earned the Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, also leads the team in tackles for loss (14) and ranks third in the conference in that category. Dye, who took home second-team all-conference honors, ranks second on the team in tackles for loss with nine. What’s impressive about Dye’s senior campaign is the fact that he’s been wearing a club on his hand since mid October after breaking his hand against Washington. Watch out for that being used as a weapon in order to stop Johnathan Taylor. I’m kidding, sort of. There’s also a chance he won’t be wearing a club against Wisconsin, either. Modern medicine, crazy.

Speaking of stopping Taylor, Oregon has a formidable rush defense. It ranks 10th in the country in rush yards allowed per game (108.3 yards/game) and 13th in average rush yards per carry (3.3 yards/carry). In terms of defensive SP+, which Oregons ranks 14th, Taylor has faced four teams that rank in the top 15 of defensive SP+ (Ohio State x2, #1; Iowa, #5; Michigan, #9; and Michigan State, #12). In those five games, Taylor has averaged roughly 147 yards on 24 carries (6.2 yards/carry). But, if you want to look at those games with the glass half empty, you can point to the fact that Taylor didn’t eclipse 100 yards in two of those games — Michigan State (26 carries, 80 yards) and the first matchup against Ohio State (20 carries, 52 yards).

The back end of the defense is equally as formidable. While the team’s pass defense isn’t great, as it allows roughly 223 pass yards/game (59th in the country), the secondary has 19 interceptions on the season, which is tied for the second in the country. The unit is led by cornerback freshman Verone McKinley III (pictured below) and safety Jevon Holland, each of whom lead the team in interceptions with four. Holland is also second on the team in tackles with 58. Sophomore linebacker Isaac Slade-Matautia leads the team in pass breakups with 10.

Source: University of Oregon Athletics website

I’m really looking forward to the matchup between McKinley and Cephus. If Cephus plays like he did in the Big Ten Championship Game, in which he exuded shades of Randy Moss and caught seven passes for 122 yards, the Badgers will own a distinct advantage in that matchup. If not, who in the world is going to step up among the wide receivers? The Rose Bowl would be a great stage for Danny Davis to emerge from the cocoon that he’s been in practically all season. After registering five touchdowns and at least 400 yards in each of his first two seasons, he only has one touchdown and slightly over 200 yards in 2019.

At any rate, Wisconsin’s offense has been humming over the last five games as it has averaged 490 yards of total offense. Will the unit continue that trend against the Ducks? If the Ducks’ defensive performance against Arizona State is any indication, then Paul Chryst and his staff — as well as Jacky Heisman — should be licking their chops. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels was 22 of 32 for 408 yards and three touchdowns, and he completed his first 12 passes of the game.

Special Teams

Who cares about special teams, right? In all seriousness, both units aren’t very good. UW ranks 87th in special teams SP+, and Oregon ranks 111th. Oregon kicker Camden Lewis is 9 of 14 on the season (64.3%) and has a long of 40. If the Ducks are faced with a 4th & 7 from the Wisconsin 30, I would expect them to go for it.

Speaking of which, will Chryst continue to be aggressive on fourth downs? He would be silly not to be. The Badgers rank third in the country in fourth down conversion percentage (.778).

Is Chryst embracing analytics?!? Historically, Chryst has been scared shitless to go for it on 4th down since he’s been at the helm and the data backs it up. The data I linked to dissected how many fourth downs a team faced throughout the season and whether they went for it, punted, or kicked a field goal. If there was data that showed how many times teams punted from the 37-yard-line, the Badgers would probably lead the country in that category.

• 2015: Went for it on 4th down 7.55% of the time (128th), 8 total attempts (128th);
• 2016: 11.65% of the time (122th), 12 total attempts (118th);
• 2017: 6.98% of the time (129th), 6 total attempts (129th); and
• 2018: 14.29% of the time (114th), 12 total attempts (119th).

Data was not available for 2019, but the Badgers did go for it on 4th down 18 times. Maybe it is recency bias on my part, but I feel like they went for it a lot more this year. Hopefully that doesn’t stop.

Prediction

Bucky by 7, 27–20.