Military Tensions Around Iran: Shifting Alliances, Energy Risks, and the Limits of International Law

The ongoing tensions surrounding Iran remain a central driver of instability in the Middle East. While a full-scale conflict has not materialized, a pattern of military incidents, diplomatic friction, and economic signaling suggests a gradual shift in the balance of power — both regionally and globally.

The Persian Gulf: Allies Seeking Strategic Autonomy

Countries in the Persian Gulf are increasingly signaling a desire to reduce dependence on traditional security partners. The policies of Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan illustrate a broader strategy of diversification: strengthening ties with China, expanding economic engagement with Asia, and maintaining pragmatic — rather than exclusive — relations with the United States.

Analysts, including those at Carnegie Middle East Center, describe this shift as a move toward “multi-vector security,” where regional actors avoid relying on a single external guarantor.

Reports about potential closures of U.S. military bases in the UAE remain unconfirmed by major outlets such as Reuters and BBC News. Still, the fact that such discussions are occurring publicly reflects a changing political atmosphere: alliances are becoming more conditional and transactional.

Oil, the Dollar, and Geoeconomic Pressure

The financial dimension of the confrontation is growing in importance. The U.S. dollar continues to dominate global oil trade — according to the International Energy Agency, it accounts for the vast majority of transactions. However, early signs of diversification are emerging.

Deals conducted in alternative currencies, including the Chinese yuan, remain limited in scale but carry symbolic and political weight. They indicate a desire among exporters to reduce exposure to the U.S.-centric financial system, particularly under sanctions pressure.

As noted by Bloomberg analysts, this is not a rapid shift away from the dollar but rather the gradual emergence of “parallel financial channels” that could expand if tensions escalate further.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint for the Global Economy

Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical arteries of global energy supply, with roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passing through it.

Recent years have seen repeated incidents — ship seizures, tanker attacks, and increased military deployments — underscoring the area’s vulnerability. Despite alarmist rhetoric, however, there has been no complete blockade. Maritime traffic continues, albeit with higher insurance costs and operational risks.

Military experts emphasize that securing the strait is resource-intensive. Even with its naval superiority, the United States faces asymmetric threats, including mines, drones, and missile systems deployed by Iran.

The United States, NATO, and Coalition Constraints

The United States continues to play a central role in safeguarding maritime routes, including through the presence of the Fifth Fleet. Yet efforts to build a broad international coalition face political limitations.

Within NATO, there is no unified stance on Iran. European powers — particularly France and Germany — have traditionally favored diplomatic engagement and the preservation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which constrains their willingness to support military options.

This divergence reflects a broader trend: the declining effectiveness of collective security mechanisms in an increasingly multipolar world.

Israel and Lebanon: A Local Flashpoint with Regional Impact

Southern Lebanon remains a zone of chronic instability due to tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Although Israeli forces withdrew in 2000, periodic escalations continue to occur.

Incidents involving damage to infrastructure and religious sites contribute to rising tensions and information warfare. At the same time, such claims often require independent verification, as they are frequently embedded in competing propaganda narratives.

The UN peacekeeping mission UNIFIL continues to play a stabilizing role, though its mandate and capabilities remain limited.

International Law and Institutional Strain

The crisis around Iran has once again exposed the limitations of global governance institutions. The United Nations Security Council remains effectively paralyzed due to disagreements among its permanent members.

Issues such as freedom of navigation, sanctions enforcement, and the use of force are increasingly addressed outside universal legal frameworks, raising the risk of fragmentation in international law.

As experts at Chatham House observe, the global order is becoming less rule-based and more dependent on relative power.

Conclusion: Managed Instability or Pre-Crisis Phase?

The current situation around Iran cannot be described as either stable or overtly crisis-driven. Rather, it reflects a state of “managed tension,” in which no major actor seeks full-scale war, yet all remain prepared for limited escalation.

For countries across the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe, the key question is whether the region can adapt to a new reality — marked by weaker traditional alliances and intensifying geoeconomic competition — or whether accumulated contradictions will trigger a deeper systemic crisis.