Investment Thesis — Samsara

Samsara — IOT

As of early February 2026, a wave of fear is indiscriminately cutting down the capex of software stocks. The fear is understandable; the AI craze have investors worried that the moat for scaled software has dried up. One of the first, and most obvious, victim of automation is software programming. So, the sentiment is that services built on the basis of software can be replicated easily by virtually anyone that knows how to how chat with bots. Leaving many software companies without much intrinsic or extrinsic value. Samsara (IOT), a software infrastructure company and the subject of this thesis, was not immune from the massive route. This thesis, however, puts this company within the category of those “babies” that have been thrown out along with the bath water. My conviction in this company has been long standing from before the sell-off and is so great that I’ve considered the sell-off as being a catalyst for discounting the company, leading me to increase my already non-trivial holdings by about 1400 shares. The basis of my conviction is two-fold:

1. The fundamentals describe a well-run company in an emergent field.
2. It operates under a business model that distinguishes it from other software infrastructure companies by embedding itself within its ecosystem with monitoring hardware that generates proprietary data. This is a moat that cannot be easily replicated.

The Fundamentals

Samsara is a relatively new company. Its IPO launched around December 2021. The numbers have painted the picture of a company that has demonstrated consistent growth since its inception in areas of new contracts, revenue and profitability.

Despite the hit to the software sector of the market, I find Samsara to be among my better and most stable long-term investment. The only real speculation that I see behind this investment is whether or not they will be able to continue this kind of growth. The management of this company does quite a bit to relieve my worries. Like Broadcom (AVGO), the CEO does not communicate overly lofty goals, instead they offer a realist’s perspective about what/how they’re business is doing and where they plan to go. I honestly think that the only reason why the valuation of this company wasn’t much higher (before the sell-off) is because they didn’t really ride the AI hype train like a lot of companies did. This kind of humility in their earnings reports offered investors with low volatility relative to the industry at large.

The Business

Samsara is unlike many others in the industry. Yes, they do offer software as-a-service, but they also manufacture and deliver communications and monitoring devices to their customers. They offer customers a path to on board their operations to the new digital landscape. Targeting supply chain logistics and transportation sectors, Samsara is working to embed themselves within the fabric of the market’s infrastructure. Armed with data from the field, operational services, tooling and insights enable companies to create efficiencies and manage their business operations from a central piece of software.

This aggregation of data is where things get interesting. Samsara’s software does more than just deliver dashboards, but it also uses field data for AI-driven insights and automation. Since Samsara owns the means of data-collection this valuable logistical data is proprietary to them, giving Samsara the edge as they develop AI models specialized to the needs of their customers. So, the way that I see it, the value of Samsara as a business increases with the company’s longevity. Like Facebook in the early days, the value of the data they collect will increase with the amount of data they accumulate.

Conclusion

I will take full advantage of the bear’s indiscriminate skepticism of the software infrastructure sector and continue to pick up shares at discounted prices.