We Are Heading Towards a Resumption of Hostilities

The first thing that I must say is that the Strait of Hormuz is once again closed. Iran did so this morning after many statements from the president, many of them divorced from reality. Or at least normal reality, he lives in his own reality, where his narcissism is collapsing. So those tweets I used at the top were overnight, and none of them are real. Here is the statement from the Iranian Security Council this morning. When looking at diplomatic negotiations, consider this a more traditional readout.

Statement by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:

– On the tenth day of the war, the Americans began sending messages and requests for a ceasefire and negotiations to end the war that they themselves had started.

– On the fortieth day of the war and with the official announcement of the U.S. President accepting Iran’s 10-point plan as the framework for negotiations to end the war, the Islamic Republic of Iran accepted these negotiations in Islamabad with the mediation of Pakistan.

– These negotiations lasted 21 hours without interruption, and the Iranian delegation raised and pursued the demands of the Iranian people with seriousness and initiative and maximum distrust in the United States.

– Despite agreeing to act within the framework of Iran’s 10-point plan, the enemy raised new and excessive demands during the negotiations, which were met with the Iranian delegation’s firm stance and the decision not to compromise on its positions in any way.

– For this reason, the first round of negotiations ended without a clear result, and its continuation was postponed until another time when the enemy stops being excessive and amends its demands in accordance with the realities on the ground.

– In recent days, with the presence of the Pakistani Field Marshal in Tehran as a mediator in the negotiations, new proposals have been raised by the Americans, which the Islamic Republic of Iran is considering and has not yet responded to.

– We announce that the Iranian negotiating team will not compromise, retreat, or tolerate anything, and will defend with all its might the interests and concerns of the Iranian nation.

– One of the preconditions for Iran’s acceptance of the temporary ceasefire was the cessation of fire on all fronts, including Lebanon, which the Zionist enemy violated from the very beginning.

– At the insistence of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Zionist regime agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon and it was decided that if the enemy observes the ceasefire on all fronts, the Strait of Hormuz would be temporarily and conditionally opened until the end of the ceasefire period, only for the passage of commercial ships but not military vessels or civilian vessels of the U.S. and Israel, with the control and permission of the Iranian armed forces and through the route determined by Iran.

– Considering that the majority of the equipment of the U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf region is provided through the Strait of Hormuz, and this is a threat to the national security of Iran and the Persian Gulf region, Iran is determined to exercise supervision and control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz until the war is permanently ended and a lasting peace is achieved in the entire region.

– This will be implemented by receiving complete information from passing vessels, issuing a certificate of passage in accordance with the announced regulations of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in accordance with war conditions, and paying a passage fee, and on the routes announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

– As long as there is a naval blockade, the Islamic Republic of Iran will consider it a violation of the ceasefire and will prevent the conditional and limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

So what is the status of Hormuz? Well, here you are. From one of the many regional channels I monitor:

At this hour, the Revolutionary Guards have launched drones equipped with audio systems and loudspeakers towards ships in the Oman Gulf area and beyond: “To the attention of all ships, following the failure of the US government to fulfill its commitments in the negotiations, Iran declares the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. No vessel of any kind or nationality is allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.”

And yes, some ships were fired upon to force them to turn back into the Gulf. So when people tell you that the Strait is open, check on places like this one. By the way, they cover every critical waterway across the world, one of those places I keep my eye on at this point.

So what did the president do when asked about this? He kicked the reporter out. Why? It is part of this narcissistic collapse, and one reason we should demand the 25th Amendment.

So what do we know at this point? Here we are:

NEW: President Trump held a closed security briefing today with General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth

An informed U.S. intelligence source tells Axios that ‘preparations are being taken’ to return to war with Iran if there is no diplomatic breakthrough by the end of this weekend.

Hebrew Channel 12 also reports that Israel is preparing for a return to fighting in the coming days.

Now the funny thing is that we took my service dog out to potty, and I told my husband, we are heading there. Then came home and found this. So while it was my wild ass guess, the reality is that patterns are now easy to tell.

Given the two mirror pieces I did on the region over the last two days, the only question is how fast we get from zero to total war? My guess is that the time it takes for systems or platforms to fly onto the target. And given the IRGC is now threatening to widen the conflict, strap in. Because in some ways, so is the United States. And for the record, this is delusional. We do not have enough ships to do this. Hell, Ronald Reagan with 600 ships lacked the capacity to do this either. But it could easily expand this to other powers who feel threatened by either side at this point:

The US is preparing for a global interception of ships linked to Iran, expanding its naval blockade beyond the Middle East.

According to data from The Wall Street Journal, American military forces have received orders to track down and board any ships suspected of transporting Iranian oil or weapons, even if they are in international waters far beyond the Persian Gulf.

The main target will be the shadow fleet — ships that disable transponders and forge documents to evade sanctions.

Thus, the US has already deployed 23 vessels that were trying to leave Iranian ports, and now, with the support of the Indo-Pacific Command, it is preparing to block logistics chains leading mainly to China, the main buyer of Iranian oil.

At the same time, US military activity in the region remains extremely high: according to Flightradar24, regular flights of the Air Force, including the rotation of refueling aircraft, continue.

Text by yigal_levin

And pursuing the Chinese supply chain only threatens to draw China into the war as an active combatant. Though they can keep playing it cool, because so far, they are the winners of this mess, and yes, at this point, they are also sending weapons to Iran:

China is quietly turning the Iran war to its advantage.

While Trump is escalating, Beijing is using the chaos to reshape its global standing.

Diplomatically, it presents itself as stable and predictable while the US appears unstable.

This contrast alone is a significant narrative victory.

Militarily, China closely watches Iran confront the most advanced army in the world, learning every move and response.

Economically, rising oil prices are painful, but China is protected by reserves and thinks long-term.

The real move? China wants US power to weaken, but not collapse too quickly.

Too much chaos slows its rise.

So as the war unfolds, Beijing learns, adapts, and positions itself as an alternative.

Telegraph.

So here is where we are. And I will say that there is a good chance that the fighting resumes this week. Alas, we have been flying a lot of supplies to the theater, because we cannot ship them there. And those supplies include combat troops. You simply don’t do that unless you expect the fighting to resume.

Future historians will have a challenge with these events, mostly because Trump is incredibly unpredictable, as his dementia and narcissistic personality continue to play a role. Hey, Caligula named his horse to the Roman Senate, Nero watched Rome burn, and in an echo of history, the colonies revolted against King Charles III. He was also rather unwell as well. So now we have the insanity of President Trump, instead of King George.