Nadiem, Oh Nadiem.

Is it the early investors of Gojek when they were still raising money through private equity before they went public?

Or is it the early investors who got in after Gojek went public? The stock opened at Rp.300+ in April 2022, dipping to Rp.50–80 levels since 2023 until now. Those early institutional and retail investors all got burned, someone with enough strings can pull this revenge off.

The figure they came up with for the fine was Rp. 5.6 trillion on an estimated state loss of Rp. 2.1 trillion through the procurement of Chromebook and Chrome Device Management (CDM) licenses. I figured out that the 5.6 number comes from the valuation of Gojek in 2019, which at its peak reached $10 billion USD. Nadiem held an estimated of 4.8% of Gojek before he became Minister of Education. 4.8% of $10 billion USD in 2019 is Rp. 5.6 trillion today. That means the Justice department thinks Nadiem should have known his company’s all time high AND sold his entire stake at an all time high.

I’ve seen theories online from Indonesians saying that this is a legal takeover by the Indonesian government to claim Nadiem’s assets, especially fueled with rumors that Danantara wants to take over GoTo. I’d be interested to know if Nadiem still has 5% or more in GoTo equity. However, I do not think the sentencing is about money because they should know his net worth can’t cover the tab for the fine. It feels more of a vendetta.

I think the most probable conclusion comes down to two theories. First, someone or a group who invested in Gojek early probably had dreams of Nadiem and Gojek rocketing to new heights bringing Indonesia along with its rise to the international stage. That dream died when Nadiem left to take the minister job. To add salt to the wound, the early inner circle of cofounders and investors of Gojek have left and moved on to other things, probably at an average price of Rp.300. Someone has to pay for that faltered dream.

The second theory is less dramatic and more on brand with Indonesian culture which is he probably messed around with a long standing procurement cash cow for bandits in the government. It probably was a party where everyone was slicing and sharing a piece of the cake, and in comes Nadiem taking that entire cake giving it to bossman Google.

Don’t get me on the wrong side, the Justice department does have some substance. Google invested in Gojek back in 2018 with Gojek raising over $1 billion USD in the fundraising round, joined by Tencent and JD.com. Gojek’s valuation reached $10 billion in 2019 and Nadiem holds 5%. Nadiem becomes Minister of Education in 2019, does NOT divest his stake in Gojek, but relinquished his operational and advisory role. Google gets awarded a government contract from Department of Education for Chromebook laptops and CDM licenses. That is textbook collusion. Nadiem should have never held on to that stake in Gojek, the prosecutors were going to use your all time high valuation as the official fine anyway. GoTo at Rp.300 or Rp.50 does not matter, they see your sin the same.

Originally published at https://danieljeremy.substack.com.