Twice the Voice: Why School Referendums Belong on the General Ballot

Put a school referendum on an Escambia Primary ballot, and you silence half the parents.

“Put a school referendum on an Escambia Primary ballot, and you silence half the parents who would otherwise show up.”

When Escambia County leaders weigh whether to place the 2026 superintendent referendum on the Primary ballot instead of the General, it sounds like a minor scheduling choice. After all, a ballot is a ballot.

But the reality is far more consequential. Our research shows that ballot placement is not just procedural — it determines who gets counted, whose voices matter, and whose do not.

In Escambia County, the gap between August Primaries and November Generals is not only about turnout size. It’s about who shows up. And when the question is about schools, that difference is decisive.

This case study, Twice the Voice, analyzes Escambia’s 2024 elections, measuring how Primary and General electorates shape school-related referendums. The findings are clear: school issues belong on General ballots, where parents and families turn out at their true strength.

A Brief History of Escambia’s School Referendums

For more than fifty years, Escambia voters have been asked whether their school superintendent should be appointed by the School Board or elected by the people.

• 1967, 1970, 1976, 1988, and 1994: voters rejected making the position appointed, choosing instead to keep it elected.
• 2018: for the first time, voters approved the change. The margin was razor-thin — 50.36% in favor, 49.64% opposed — and the decision was made on the General Election ballot.

With an elected superintendent, Escambia was part of a rare minority. Nationwide, only about 1% of school districts elect their superintendents. But Florida is an outlier: roughly half of its districts still do.

And the 2018 outcome did not settle the question. In 2023, the School Board rejected a resolution to give voters a chance to return to an elected superintendent. Then in 2025, the board voted to place a new referendum on the 2028 Primary Election ballot — a move that raises the question of whether such consequential decisions should be decided by a smaller, older, less representative electorate.

Four Structural Gaps That Change the Outcome

1. Structural Access Gap

Florida’s closed primaries mean independents are conditioned to sit out August elections. Even though they can technically vote on referendums, the habit is built in: “Primary means partisan, not for me.”

In Escambia’s 2024 Primary, just 5% of voters were independents. In the General, that number nearly quadrupled to 19.3%. That’s not a rounding error — it represents tens of thousands of people who do show up in November but not in August.

“Put a school referendum on a Primary ballot, and one in five Escambia voters — independents — are effectively erased.”

2. Age Representation Gap

In the 2024 Primary, voters aged 18–34 and 35–54 — the groups most likely to be raising children in public schools — made up just 23.6% of the electorate. In the General, their share nearly doubled to 47.9%.

Meanwhile, voters 65+ dominated the Primary at 56.3% but made up only one-third of the General.

“Put a school referendum on a Primary ballot, and you silence half the parents who would otherwise show up.”

3. Racial Representation Gap

Primaries are whiter. In Escambia’s 2024 Primary, White/Other voters made up 82.8% of the electorate. In the General, that figure dropped to 76.7%. African American participation grew from 12.9% to 16.8%. Hispanic turnout rose from 3.4% to 5.0%, with Asian participation also increasing.

Escambia is no stranger to Voting Rights Act concerns. In McMillan v. Escambia County, federal courts struck down the county’s at-large commission system after finding it diluted Black voting power. That history underscores the stakes: when key decisions are shifted to an August Primary electorate, minority voices are diminished in ways that echo past patterns of exclusion.

“Put a referendum in a Primary, and Escambia’s minority voters lose thousands of voices at the ballot box.”

4. Policy Legitimacy & Stability

Escambia has faced the superintendent question six times in the last fifty-plus years. Five times, voters chose to keep it elected. Only once — in 2018 — did they approve a change, and then by less than one percent.

That narrow outcome illustrates the risk of instability. Decisions made by smaller, less representative electorates don’t stick; they invite relitigation. The 2025 decision to place the next referendum on the Primary ballot virtually guarantees another cycle of division, because the decision will again be made without the broadest possible participation.

“Put a school referendum on a Primary ballot, and you guarantee the fight won’t be over — because the full county never got to decide.”

Evidence From the 2024 Survey

In Fall 2024, Opal Research fielded a countywide omnibus survey (N=1,118; ±3% MOE). Respondents were asked about several ballot issues. We then modeled results under two turnout scenarios: the 2024 Primary electorate and the 2024 General electorate.

The education sales tax continuation showed the clearest effect:

• Primary electorate: 68.4% support, 31.6% oppose
• General electorate: 72.2% support, 27.8% oppose

That four-point gain moved just outside the margin of error. It was not statistical noise — it reflected the younger, more family-heavy electorate in November.

Other ballot tests confirmed the pattern:

• At-Large Commissioners: Opposed in the Primary, supported in the General.
• Tourism Bond: Struggled regardless of placement.
• Septic Setbacks: Broad support, again, irrespective of placement.

The lesson: School-related measures are uniquely sensitive to ballot timing.

Beyond Escambia: Why This Matters More Broadly

Closed primaries, older August electorates, and more diverse November electorates are not unique to Escambia. They are structural realities across Florida and many other states.

When questions tied directly to schools are placed on Primary ballots, the outcome is shaped by a smaller, older, whiter, more partisan electorate. That’s not neutrality — that’s distortion.

Conclusion: Twice the Voice

Parents and younger voters — those with the most at stake — are nearly twice as likely to participate in General elections as in Primaries.

• Primaries are smaller, older, whiter, more partisan.
• Generals are larger, younger, more diverse, more representative.

For school-related referendums, that difference is decisive.

“Ballot placement is not a detail. It is the decision before the decision.”

School referendums belong on the General ballot. That’s where Escambia’s parents, families, and the full community are present. That’s where legitimacy is earned.

Read the Full Case Study

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