How Ecosystem Research and Predictive Modeling Enable Circular Cities

This blog is part of an ongoing series documenting the evolution of Penny Pickup, a platform enabling right-sized, low-emissions material movement through micromobility and automation. Through real-world deployments and ecosystem research, we explore how cities can move materials more efficiently, supporting circular economies, reducing emissions, and unlocking new operational models. Along the way, we share insights from the field and highlight the partners and communities helping bring these systems to life.

Circular economy pilots often focus on how materials move, but lasting impact depends on understanding where they come from and how the system is structured. Alongside Penny Pickup’s Downtown Detroit autonomous food waste pilots, we conducted ecosystem research and predictive modeling to inform how circular logistics could scale across the city.

To ground this work in real conditions, we completed an ecosystem scan of downtown food-waste producers, including restaurants, bars, coffee shops, hotels, and other food service operations. Mapping these locations revealed patterns of food waste density and clustering that are often invisible at the individual business level. This system-wide visibility helps identify opportunity areas for circular innovation and highlights where right-sized logistics can have the greatest impact.

Using data from the ecosystem scan, we developed a predictive model outlining four priority regions for future processing hubs. With just four hubs, each serving a radius of less than one mile, micromobility solutions could efficiently access nearly all identified producers, transporting materials back for processing or redistribution.

This approach demonstrates the power of hyper-local collection and processing enabled by micromobility. Shorter routes, smaller vehicles, and localized infrastructure make circular systems more feasible while reducing emissions, congestion, empty miles, and cost.

By pairing on-the-ground pilots with ecosystem-level research, this project shifts the conversation from isolated demonstrations to intentional system design, offering a scalable blueprint for circular cities.

Written by Hannah Ranieri, Innovation Strategist

Originally published at https://www.orangesparkleball.com on February 17, 2026.