Why Did Israel Act Now?

All sorts of ideas and theories are floating around. Let’s consider the most likely reason. Let’s also look at America’s knowledge of the attack and our role in defending Israel.

The earth shaking news is not that Israel launched a military action against Iran’s nuclear capabilities; everyone expected it sooner or late. The question was when, and now that it has happened, the question is, why now?

We’re starting to hear the early trickle of hypotheses and theories, none of which should carry any more weight than mine, as no one has the inside story on exactly what the Israelis knew and when they knew it.

We’ll hear that Trump was in on it from the beginning, or that Israel intentionally undercut Trump’s negotiations with Iran, or it’s all about the oil, or that any daylight between Trump and Bibi is all an act. As you’ll see, I don’t think any of those are the case.

First, What Facts Can Everyone Agree On?

I don’t think there’s any doubt about the following, phrased as objectively as possible:

1.) Iran has threatened, directly and implicitly, to destroy Israel and has indeed attacked her with missiles twice in the past year;

2.) Iran holds an annual Holocaust denial cartoon contest where they ridicule Anne Frank;

3.) Iran was the principle supporter of terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah;

4.) The UN commission tasked with monitoring Iran’s compliance with international agreements recently issued a report finding Iran was secretly accumulating banned materials capable of making nuclear weapons;

5.) Trump revoked the so-called Iran Nuclear Deal, actually one of Obama’s Executive Order, which was not a law or treaty, and could be and was revoked by any future President;

6.) From what little is known of current negotiations between the US and Iran, it seems to be between no deal and the same deal Trump revoked in 2017;

7.) Trump asked Israel to refrain from attacking Iran while negotiations were ongoing;

8.) Israel attacked Iran while negotiations were ongoing;

9.) Trump has drastically changed the makeup and character of American intelligence agencies for the worse, and within his cabinet, the Secretary of Defense and Director of National Intelligence are at best rank amateurs, at worst, working contrary to America’s interests. In either case, they are untrustworthy in the eyes of Israeli intelligence and military leaders;

10.) Trump’s inexperienced and non-professional Middle East diplomatic team has met face-to-face with Hamas, in violation of America’s own laws;

11.) In the strikes against Iran earlier this year, Israel largely degraded the Islamic Republic’s air defense system, allowing Israel to strike as it just did. (Israel also had agents on the ground, killing top Iranian military leaders, scientists, and even the chief negotiator with the Americans!)

To no one’s surprise, Iran calls the attacks unprovoked aggression, while Israel claims it is legitimate self-defense

Why Don’t You List As a Fact That the US Had No Advance Warning? Isn’t That What Secretary of State Rubio Said?

That was indeed the initial party line, delivered by the hapless Marco Rubio, Boy Secretary of State, until Trump decided it wasn’t. Since then, in the past several hours alone, the President has gone from utterly distancing America from the attacks, to claiming he was in the loop, to using the attacks as a cudgel to force Iran to enter into a face-saving agreement “before it’s too late.” (Face-saving only for Trump; after the attack by Israel, Iran has nothing to gain.)

This government is run like Trump ran his family business. The cabinet officers have the titles, but Trump runs the show. Rubio is Secretary of State and National Intelligence Adviser, and he says he didn’t know anything about this attack. That’s not surprising because Trump gave Little Marco a few high-falutin titles, but he uses his golfing buddies as Special Ambassadors.

I have a reasonable but as of yet unproven notion that with the top echelons of intelligence filled with Trump MAGA apparatchiks, Israeli intelligence shares extremely sensitive intelligence with our agencies, but only with decades-long contacts, meaning only with the many professionals they know well and trust implicitly. Both nations benefit by honorable and seasoned professionals watching out for the best interests of their respective nations.

The suspicion of these contacts has only been heightened by President Trump today strongly implying he was anything but in the dark, and the immediacy of the US stating that our warships were being positioned to defend American forces and Israel itself from retaliation by Iran. Once again, a very strong implication that someone in our government knew, what we might in law call circumstantial evidence.

But Why Now?

The simple answer: Israel’s intelligence and military officer were persuaded that the threat of a nuclear armed Iran was imminent, and this had to be stopped. They didn’t think Trump would do so, but Israel had been planning an attack for years. They determined that right now their planning would enable them to succeed, and that with Trump distracted by his tariff problems, internal protests throughout America, and the Ukraine War, he would probably look favorably on eliminating the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, despite the negotiations. We can also assume Israel does not believe the risk of a successful catastrophic retaliation is likely.

Implicit in all this: Israel may like a lot of things about Trump, but has no faith in his ability to either stop Iran’s nuclear capabilities by either diplomacy or his willingness to use force.

Bibi Netanyahu understands America and Americans and our politics. This great political survivor seemed up against the ropes, but this may have given him a new lease on his political life. (Image courtesy Getty Images.)

If there’s anyone in the world who understands the American voter, it’s Bibi Netanyahu. He’s been dealing with the intricacies of American politics since he became Prime Minister for the first time in 1996. He’s dealt with Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden, now Trump again. He knows what got them elected, what they fear could hurt them politically, and most of all, where the American voters stood on Israel, to the extent they thought about it at all.

Bibi Netanyahu knows that the secret sauce for Israel’s seeming lock on American politicians today is not a Jewish sauce. The far left and far right share the delusion that any and all pro-Israel sentiment is the result of manipulation by Jewish lobbying groups like AIPAC or Jewish civil rights groups like ADL.

That antisemitic trope is untrue, but what is true is that there anywhere from fifty to seventy million religious American Christian voters who may be described as anywhere from staunch supporters of the State of Israel for non-theological reasons to “Christian Zionists,” who see Israel as a necessary step in fulfilling their interpretations of biblical prophecies, some of which don’t end particularly well for Jews or other non-Christians. (A 2022 Pew Institute report placed the number of Christian Zionists in America at up to 30 million. That means a lot of voters among them, probably up to 20 million.)

Bibi Netanyahu’s pubic embrace of Trump confirmed the beliefs these voters already held. It normalized Trump to many people and won him votes from right wing Jews and right wing Christians alike.

All of the above overwhelmingly vote for Trump and stick with him through thick and thin.

In other words, Bibi understands that in any confrontation between Israel and Iran, the core group of Trump voters would be strongly on Israel’s side. That holds great sway with Trump.

Bibi, like most Israelis, is not overly interested in the opinions of Diaspora Jews, unless they support him. Don’t even ask what Bibi and most other Israelis think about world opinion.

Israel doesn’t have to worry about their American fans in the Christian communities that are rock solid, because nothing is going to move them off the dial on that one. Why do you think nearly every other GOP politician is so pro-Israel?

Netanyahu knows Donald Trump won’t be getting pressure from his base or his Congressional caucuses on this raid, but a Democratic President surely would have divisions in their party. We can see that from the early comments and the surprising lineups. With a Republican clamp on the legislative and executive branches, politically speaking, the stars were aligned for Israel.

Before Trump jumped on the Israeli raid bandwagon after a few hours of his typical deep concentration, leading Republican Senators were taking to the airwaves to tell a story different from Marco Rubio’s distancing statement. We heard rousing cheers of support for Israel from Republican Senators Rock Scott (FL), Ted Cruz (TX), Tom Cotton (MO), James Risch (ID), and Lindsey Graham (SC). Speaker Mike Johnson spoke in support on behalf all but one isolationist members of his caucus.

It’s been a bit different on the Democratic side. Senators Jeff Merkley (OR), Chris Murphy (CT), Peter Welch (VT) and Tim Kaine (VA) were quick to accuse and criticize Israel of undermining Trump’s negotiations and risking broader conflict. Senators Jackie Rosen (NV) and John Fetterman, and and Representatives Darren Soto (FL). and Ritchie Torres (NY) were quick to defend the attacks as legitimate self defense.

All of this means that Israel can actually eat their cake and have it too. They could ignore Trump’s pleas to not attack while negotiations were ongoing, knowing that when all is said and done, Trump’s most loyal base is on Israel’s side, and that’s where they expect Donald Trump to be, and he won’t disappoint them.

The simplest and bluntest truth: Israel lacks faith in the Trump Administration.

Official White House photo.

This should never be mistaken as saying Israel does not think Trump believes he is acting in Israel’s best interests or that he won’t be for them in crisis; he will. It is an acknowledgment that neither Trump nor his current team has the experience, objectivity, or apparently the candlepower, to correctly assess and respond to the dangers Iran poses to Israel, America, and the rest of the world. Netanyahu truly believes that on this, America should follow his lead. The Jewish State has always accepted that when it comes to the defense of that Jewish State or the Jewish People, Israel will defend, and will do what it deems necessary. Bibi is pretty certain that no matter what, he can count on America’s support as long as Trump is around.

In years past, Israel has deferred to American requests for restraint, most famously in 1993, when the US persuaded Israel to not respond to Iraqi Scud missile attacks, as it would jeopardize the US coalition with Arab countries. Years earlier in 1956, Israel, along with the UK and France, withdrew from the Suez at America’s request.

We can’t compare the stature afforded Ike, or the respect for Clinton’s intelligence, with the way nations of today see our President. Even Trump-friendly Israel has particular reasons for lacking confidence: the direct talks with Hamas, the cockamamie negotiations with Iran, the low quality of intelligence officials and the cabinet level security related posts, the amateur diplomacy.

Israel believes, with good cause, that Iran was drawing close to possessing nuclear weapons, and that the US was being suckered into negotiations that are letting Iran get away with this. That means an existential threat to Israel. If there’s an existential threat to Israel, and Israel doubts the reliability of their only true ally, Israel is going to act on its own.

They probably did tell the US, but they acted on their own, in their own interests, because they felt they couldn’t rely on America when Trump was in charge.

How ironic! Bibi helped put him there!

Overall, the Raid Was Good, Wasn’t It?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (Official photo of Iranian government.)

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (Official photo of Iranian government.)

Iran has just retaliated with a barrage of missile attacks at civilian areas in Israel. While there have been no deaths yet, several people have been injured and there has been property damage.

Let’s hope Israel does not respond in kind. Their war is against the Islamic Republic’s leaders and military threats, not its people. This isn’t Gaza: Israel is not hunting rockets hidden in schools or mosques; they know where the nuclear and military facilities are, and they are not generally in civilian areas.

Most Iranian missiles have been shot down by Israel’s defense, or by the US and European assistance, but there is no way to deflect every one, and there have been injuries and property damage. This must have been calculated into the planning of the attack.

Israel’s intelligence and military services must believe that they have the capabilities to keep their property damage and human casualties to a level low enough so that most Israelis will accept it as a reasonable price to pay for preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons and for weakening the regime even further.

The Israeli intelligence and the political analysts would have had to agree that in their potential scenarios, even the worst infliction of damage by Iran would not be severe enough to prevent unity for the strikes against Iran.

What If Israeli and Intelligence Are Wrong, and the Damage and Loss of Life is Far Greater Than Anticipated?

Let’s hope that is not the case.

Highly unlikely it will be.

Unlike with the Gaza War, the West seems to be in lockstep on this, with EU/NATO nations joining the US in defending Israel from missile attacks and sending warships to protect the nation. Aiding with defense frees up Israeli pilots to attack strategic (not civilian) targets in Iran. Israel will use the Iranian response as justification for broader attacks, hopefully not on civilian targets as Iran did. Over the next few days, the Iranian military and intelligence serves are going to suffer devastating and crippling losses and damage. Iran may not be very much of a regional power when this is all over.

The very first fear to come to mind is whether Israel would feel compelled by circumstances to use the nuclear weapons it possesses and can deliver by air or sea. That would truly be catastrophic for this world. There is nothing indicating such danger from Iran that nuclear weapons would even be considered.

Another fear has been that in exchange for not using nuclear weapons, and not duplicating the firebombing of Dresden on Tehran, the US and other Western powers would guarantee Israel’s defense. This could result in Western troops being drawn into the conflict, something we should avoid. Early reports are that US and European militaries were limited to assisting Israel in shooting down incoming Iranian missiles and protecting the sea lanes and coasts. I wouldn’t put it past Iran to attack ships, commercial and military, and that would justify defensive actions in specific instances.

US and European nations are indeed providing defense assistance to Israel, but it is in the form of shooting down Iranian missiles and protecting the sea lanes and coastlines, not using combat troops or engaging in air or naval combat. It should remain that way.

Based on Trump disavowing Rubio, US warships in place to defend Israel, and the assistance in shooting down Iranian missiles at this very moment, I’d say America is in Israel’s corner 100%, Little Marco’s out-of-the-loop comments notwithstanding.

Courtesy Getty Images

How Long Will Israel Keep Up the Attacks?

That’s anyone’s guess, and mine is that Israel will stop when it believes it has degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities to the point they pose no threat of developing nuclear weapons, and they have degraded Iranian air, naval and ground forces and facilities to the extent that the Islamic Republic poses no threat to Israel or any other nation. That could take weeks, maybe even months.

This may or may not entail striking at Iran’s oils fields; that depends on how much resistance Iran puts up. Most of Israel’s European allies would not want to see that oil disappear, and everyone would see a rise in oil prices.A better option if necessary would be to either physically seize the oil fields, meaning joint Israeli-American-European effort, or force a turnover as a condition of ending the fighting. The idea is to keep Iran from having any control or earning any profits from the oil, except for the legitimate needs of the population.

What About Regime Change?

That’s up to the Iranian people. America, Israel and Europe could demand the Islamic Republic declare itself over, but then we’d be buying into responsibility for a new government. That’s up to Iranian people. The coalition united against Iran could demand free and fair elections conducted under international voting rights experts, and if their backs were literally against the wall, the Ayatollah and his cronies might figure losing an election and staying alive is better than being torn apart in the streets by angry mobs. It has to be up to the Iranians to choose their own government. (I have a shrewd suspicion that electorally, they will run as far away as possible from the lunatics who now govern them.)

Remember the Wise Words of Yogi Berra: “It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over.” Stay Tuned!

It’s a fast and ever-changing landscape. You know you will always find the most well-researched and best presented arguments right here!

THE TRUTH WILL WIN IF IT IS TOLD!

Stephen Shaiken is an attorney and author. He has written extensively on Constitutional issues. He has litigated scores of Constitutional questions in federal appellate courts and is a member of the United States Supreme Court Bar.

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Originally published at https://stephenshaiken.substack.com.