Port Macquarie by-election

Club manager Robert Dwyer was elected the next member for Port Macquarie, following a tightly contested by-election between feuding partners in the NSW Coalition.

[embed]Liberal leader Mark Speakman claims victory on by-election night

Despite a 6.28% swing towards the Nationals after preferences, the Liberal Party will hold the seat, with Dwyer securing just 53.46% of the formal vote after preferences to Nationals candidate Sean Gleeson’s 46.54%.

The by-election, where nearly a fifth of votes were exhausted under optional preferential voting — a figure consistent with the ’23 election — highlighted the complexities of an election between the Liberals and the Nationals, especially in the absence of a Labor candidate. Disendorsed Nationals-turned-independent candidate Warwick Yonge, a local GP who campaigned on infrastructure and healthcare, garnered 11.87% of the vote. His presence possibly siphoned support from traditional Labor voters, at the expense of increases to the Greens and Legalise Cannabis which each saw modest swings of about 3%.

The newly rebranded Libertarians underperformed expectations, capturing just 3.19% of first preferences — just under the percentage of informal votes. This was despite the early announcement of their candidate and notable media coverage, including a feature on NBN News and a piece outlining her views on electoral terms in News of the Area. While the party improved its vote share by 2.05% compared to its previous outing as the Liberal Democrats, the absence of the Informed Medical Options Party, which had secured 2.24% at the last election, suggests a campaign filled with Trumpian rhetoric fails to resonate here — particularly at a state political level.

Full results

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Background

Electoral district of Port Macquarie | © State of New South Wales through the NSW Electoral Commission

The by-election in the state seat of Port Macquarie was held on Saturday, 15 March. Early voting commenced on Monday, 10 March, a postponed date due to impacts from Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Outgoing Liberal MP for Port Macquarie Leslie Williams, who was first elected in ’11 as a Nationals candidate, had only very recently announced her retirement on 22 January.

The seat is set to be contest between the Liberal Party and the National Party, as explained in this Crikey piece by Anton Nilsson. Club general manager Robert Dwyer was preselected as the Liberal candidate and beef cattle farmer Sean Gleeson as the Nationals candidate.

Despite the short timeframe of the campaign and the looming federal election, three other parties have also nominated candidates for the seat, including the Greens’ Stuart Watson, Legalise Cannabis’ Megan Mathew and Libertarian Breelin Coetzer. Disendorsed Nationals candidate Warwick Yonge is running as an independent. Having never won the seat, the Labor Party said to NBN News that it will not be running a candidate.

Port Macquarie also lies in the federal electorate of Cowper, which is being contested by prominent independent candidate Caz Heise. Political fundraisers for independents, Climate 200 and Regional Voices Fund, said to nswpol that they are not supporting any independent candidates for Port Macquarie.

‘If a stellar candidate with demonstrated community backing emerged in the area, that is certainly something Climate 200 would look into,’ a spokesperson for the political fundraising organisation wrote on 7 February, weeks before Yonge, a local GP running on an infrastructure-focused campaign, announced his candidacy as an independent.

The candidates in ballot paper order are:

GLEESON Sean THE NATIONALS

DWYER Robert LIBERAL

COETZER Breelin LIBERTARIAN PARTY (FORMERLY LIBERAL DEMOCRATS)

MATHEW Megan LEGALISE CANNABIS PARTY

WATSON Stuart THE GREENS

YONGE Warwick Independent

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[embed]nswpol Covering developments in the NSW political economybuymeacoffee.com