Good Luck!

Good Luck!

Mallorca are up against it.

Mallorca’s traveling fans look down at the action (@RCD_Mallorca)

Letting go of Jagoba Arrasate was a decision made easier by Mallorca’s nosedive in performances this season. In 2024/25, things were comparatively rosy for Arrasate’s men, as Mallorca’s top 10 defense (in both expected and actual goals against) guided them to a midtable finish despite being one of the lowest scoring teams in La Liga.

This season, they’ve scored more, primarily due to a goalscoring explosion of historic proportions from Kosovan striker Verdat Muriqi. His elite target forward play, reliable finishing and veteran presence has made him a man to be trusted under any circumstances for this Mallorca side. He has scored 22 goals, won 51.9% of his duels, and 55.4% of his aerials, all above the 85th percentile for La Liga forwards (FotMob).

Muriqi’s shot chart. Thanks Opta!

But they’ve also conceded more, with the most 4th most goals conceded — and most expected goals against — in the entire division.

Worse xG against than all the newly promoted sides is not a good sign.

Ultimately, the inability to get the same results with largely the same spine from the 24/25 season — from Valjent, Raillo, Mojica and Maffeo at the back, to connector Sergi Darder and enforcer Samu Costa in midfield , and obviously the cherry on top, Muriqi — was Arrasate’s demise, and it resulted in Mallorca having an uncomfortable proximity to relegation.

To be fair, there were losses to the group worth noting, like Dominik Greif in goal, who this season saved 3/5 penalties faced and kept 11 clean sheets as Lyon claimed 4th place in Ligue 1, Robert Navarro, now a rotational option on the wing for Athletic Club, and defender José Copete, now at Valencia. But there were also incomings, like a pair of attacking midfielders from Barcelona in Jan Virgili and Pablo Torre, a defensive reinforcement in Marash Kumbulla (whose injury problems have limited his productivity despite his promise), and forward Mateo Joseph on loan from Leeds United.

It would also be remiss of me not to mention the 6 game winless start, and the 3 game winless finish (which was part of a 2 win, 6 loss opening to 2026 for the Balearic Islanders) that bookended Arrasate’s 2025/26 season. After the third loss in that 2026 run, a 2–0 defeat to Celta Vigo, he was relieved of his duties.

The man who followed Arrasate as Mallorca head coach was a fairly young man, in his forties, with a pretty famous playing career, which could describe basically any top 5–7 league manager currently employed right now.

He arrived with some trophies in the cabinet, though, from his time coaching a club he represented as a player, River Plate, where he won a league title in 2023.

Martín! (via goal.com)

But Martín Demichelis’ next job, at Monterrey in Mexico from August 2024 to May 2025, didn’t go as well. So he needed Mallorca as much as Mallorca needed him, evidenced by the fact that he accepted a deal until the end of the season with an option for an extra season, a deal certainly more about getting a foot in the door and short term results than longer term security.

This sense of mutual urgency — for one to get his coaching career at the top level going again and for another to avoid relegation — seemed necessary to spur on a Mallorca side that needed a new voice and vision.

After B team manager Gustavo Siviero oversaw a 1–0 loss to Sociedad in the in-between period of leadership changing hands, the Demichelis era got underway with a mixed March that featured a draw, win and loss.

Then Mallorca started April with a win against Real Madrid, with the late winner coming from the only man that could, Verdat Muriqi.

Another win against Rayo and a draw against Valencia followed, which gave them a small but fairly precious 3 game unbeaten run. Sure a Toni Martinez brace did them in at the Mendizorroza to close April with a loss, but the start was so good, Demichelis won manager of the month!

(via laliga.com)

It seemed the pact of mutual urgency was moving both parties in the right direction as planned.

Then May started with a win, draw, and loss, and Demichelis and the club suddenly entered must-win territory. They had 2 more games to secure Mallorca’s place in La Liga, against Levante and Oviedo. Winning both was ideal!

The Levante game was, at least on paper, largely played on Mallorca’s terms: They had 71% possession, and this control of the ball meant there was a lot to look at with regards to Demichelis’ tactical vision for the team in possession. But Levante was organized.

It started with the back 4+midfield diamond/box in buildup for Mallorca that Levante effectively counteracted with their more zonal 4–4–2 mid block and a well choreographed press, with striker Carlos Espí often being the man leading and triggering the press.

As a result, number of possessions looked like this:

Espí (star) steps up, the rest of the team takes their man2man assignments. Ivan Romero (top of second frame) has a choice to make (clear arrow is his other option). This pressure results in Mallorca resetting play back to the goalkeeper, trying again, and losing the ball as Levante stayed well organized.

From there Mallorca continued to try and work their way through with several things in their tactical toolkit, such as Sergi Darder dropping between the center backs, and full-backs Mojica and Maffeo pushing high and wide. The positioning of the full backs put them in position to receive quick diagonals, put in crosses, and hold width for when Mallorca tried to progress through the center.

Mojica’s ability as a width holder and crosser at left back, as well as Samu Costa’s ability as a box crasher (he is Mallorca’s second top scorer with 7 goals) created their first good chance of the game, as a Costa header assisted by Mojica was saved by Ryan in the 25th minute.

Also, they had big man Muriqi as a long ball target, and striker signed on loan from Cagliari, Zito Luvumbo, who is the “little man” to Muriqi’s “big man,” running in behind, tracking down second balls, and playing off of Muriqi. That is what their next best chance in the 35th minute came from, as Muriqi collected a long ball and sent a cross into Luvumbo whose header was, yet again, saved by Ryan.

But between those two chances, Mallorca conceded. Carlos Espí was the scorer, and he won the ball and rolled it into the net after sprinting out to press a backwards pass from Mojica. It was much like a goal he scored earlier in the campaign against Oviedo.

Espí goes to press, nabs the ball, rolls it in!

This goal was a lifeline for Levante in many ways, primarily because they had found playing through Mallorca difficult in the first half.

Mallorca’s 4–4–2 diamond shape defensively limited Levante’s ability to access their midfield and progress that way:

At it’s base, Mallorca’s diamond 4–4–2 could cover both center backs, and Levante’s deep pivot+both eights in the midfield 3.

When the ball was on Levante’s right (Mallorca’s left), Muriqi stayed between the center backs to prevent backwards play, Luvumbo steps to the full back (currently on the ball) , and everyone else settles into tracking their nearest man player for player.

When the ball was on Levante’s left (Mallorca’s right), Costa (near the ad boards) stepped up from right center midfield in the diamond onto the full back (currently on the ball), and Mallorca could defend basically player for player on that side of the pitch as well.

This meant Levante used wide channels, turnovers, long balls to Espí where they could create from second balls and knockdowns, and set pieces to get into the game and get chances.

After Mallorca went down a goal, and especially in the second half, this approach led to even better results. Mallorca’s desperation to get back into the game left even more gaps defensively for Levante to attack, and Mallorca’s problems progressing into dangerous areas meant there were turnovers to exploit.

By the 79th minute, Luvumbo had been subbed off for Asano, and midfielders Pablo Torre and Manu Morlanes had been replaced by Virgili and veteran striker Abdón Prats and it formed a sort of 4–2–4 as Demichelis rolled the dice a final time.

There was also just a sprinkle of chaos as Roger Brugué had one of his shots in transition blocked by Johan Mojica late in the game in the penalty area, and he went down to the turf, rolling and waving his arms.

While Brugué laid there, Mojica felt it was an exaggeration, and pulled his hair out of disdain, resulting in Brugué slapping him with the same arm that was waving in the air asking for a foul. Parts of this exchange were initially missed by the referee, but VAR saw it all, and after review both men received red cards. The game was now 10 on 10!

Levante quickly gave themselves some cushion by scoring from a corner kick minutes after the incident; Kervin Arriaga jumped with two Mallorca defenders and managed to beat both to the ball at the back post to flick it into the bottom left corner.

He got UP!

Mallorca now knew their chances of survival were as slim as could be, and as they attacked, and Levante counterattacked, it very nearly got worse. A handball by Virgili on a Kareem Tunde shot gave Levante a penalty in the 6th of 8 minutes of added time. Adrián De La Fuente, like in one of Levante’s previous games against Getafe, missed the penalty.

Everyone watching the ball hit the crossbar at the same time

When the dust finally settled on the key relegation skirmish, Mallorca were officially on the losing side. Despite their possession and numbers thrown forward, they had no shots on target in the second half.

Mallorca and Girona, who lost away from home to Atleti during one of the games being played at the same time, now occupy 2 of the 3 relegation spots ahead of the last game of the season.

Mallorca’s requirements to stay in the top division are… Not simple. They play last place Oviedo, and likely will win, but due to their points total and tiebreakers, they are very reliant on other results: Girona’s clash with Elche, Levante’s game against Betis, and Osasuna’s matchup with Getafe.

Osasuna-Getafe is an especially tricky fixture since it has implications at the other end of the table as well; Getafe are currently clinging to 7th, which would bring them Conference League football should they win against Osasuna.

parity!

There is a relegation scenarios flow chart, thanks to the smart people at the Double Pivot podcast, and I had to give it a pretty close read to understand all the possible scenarios, as will you.

Fortunately, they explain it pretty well in their own words if you remain confused (or are unwilling to read and re-read the flow chart).

So this is the challenge Mallorca are presented with on the final day of La Liga: They need to win, they need Girona to win, they need Levante to avoid defeat and for Osasuna to lose to Getafe.

The odds are, as one could guess, not with Mallorca at all: Opta Analyst has them as the most likely team to get relegated (that isn’t already relegated).

Good luck!