NACL Predictions, Summer 2023

Now that Doublelift is learning what a labor negotiation is, it’s time for the 2nd split under the new NACL format for North American League of Legends.

This time around we have gone from 16 teams to 10, and 10 LCS-backed teams to 3 (4 if you count GGS + AOE). Format has changed to a double round robin, where the top 8 teams make playoffs, and only 2 teams end up in promotion/relegation instead of the previous 4.

This guide will be pretty straightforward; list the teams and their rosters, some good and some bad stuff, and a prediction on where they will end up by end of playoffs. That way this can be screenshotted by players and sent to me when I’m eventually wrong on something (sorry Fear).

Disguised

Fakegod — Tomio — Young — Meech — Zeyzal

The Good: Hard to go wrong getting into the space by picking up most of the roster that just won the previous split. Young may not be better than Diplex currently, but Meech feels like an upgrade over Lost, so the roster strength should be about the same. Everyone individually very talented, one of the best supports in a league where that role is a desert, and Tomio had a breakout split in Spring.

The Bad: DisguisedToast’s bank account. Jokes aside, this roster doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses at first glance. If you had to pick one it’d likely be FakeGod, but given the level of his competition, the current meta (top lane lol), and how good his teammates are, I don’t see a world where that becomes an exploitable weakness for DSG.

FlyQuest Challengers

Faisal — Yuuji — Spirax — Massu — Winsome

The Good: This team managed to figure it mostly out towards the end of Spring after some initial struggles and Massu playing on 120 ping on the most mechanical and important role in the meta. I believe their biggest issues last split came from the top part of the map, and having Faisal come in as one of the best top laners in the league I think will help patch some of those issues. Preexisting core of players, Massu no longer playing in Microsoft PowerPoint; overall it should be a pretty straightforward road to a top performance for this team.

The Bad: I had higher expectations for the Yuuji/Spirax combo entering their second split together, and I wasn’t blown away by their performance in Spring. Ideally with this now being their 3rd split together they can be a bit more cohesive with their game plans, as often Yuuji would make aggressive plays that felt either poorly timed or with no support from his mid laner. If that doesn’t improve some of the teams below may pass them up.

Team Liquid Challengers

Bradley — Mir — APA — Arrow — Kim Down

The Good: Mir is coming off a Most Valuable Prospect award (#JusticeForMassuOrPerry) and TL has two of the best solo laners in the league. There’s real carry potential from all three lanes; especially with Bradley’s ability to gain solo advantages over his opponents in a meta where top has become a bit of an island.

The Bad: I believe there are a LOT of good ADCs this split and the support role is a bit weak. There is a world where Arrow/Kim Down get punished, as I think they get outclassed by quite a few of the bot lanes in the league. Arrow has always stepped up towards the end of the season/playoffs though, so don’t be surprised for them to finish middle of the pack and make a run through playoffs.

After those three teams, I believe there is a bit of a gap in terms of competition. I’d say it’s overwhelmingly likely that the Summer 2023 split winner will be one of the three teams listed above. The next group of teams are ones that I believe will have a shot at making a playoffs run if the meta works in their favor and if their weaknesses don’t get exploited too heavily. I also do not see a world where any of these teams end up in the relegation tournament, let alone actually get relegated.

Cincinnati Fear

Philip — Perry — shochi — Minui — JayJ

The Good: I made the mistake of underestimating this roster last split and I won’t do it again this time around. Perry showed to be one of the best pathing junglers in the league last split and IMO should’ve been in strong consideration for best rookie/most valuable prospect. Minui also pleasantly surprised after being rated very low at the beginning of the split (my bad). Retaining your core that exceeded expectations so well, and adding multiple years of pro experience with Philip and JayJ helps round them out very nicely.

The Bad: I believe Faisal was a massive catalyst for this team’s success this last split, so losing him to FlyQuest weakens them a bit in my mind. JayJ has been focusing more on coaching than playing (including with us over at Native last split), so there may be some adjustment for him to get back up to par. Considering how weak the support role is in NACL this split though, I doubt this will be much of an issue.

AOE Esports

Concept — Will — Darkwings — Links — Breezy

The Good: Will is one of the most hyped players in NA and he gets to make his return to comp after a bit of a break. I think him and Darkwings are a very strong 2v2 that contends or beats most of the other jungle/mid pairings in the league. Links gets to focus on only NACL instead of school + CLOL + NACL, and with Breezy as his support I think they could sneakily be one of the most dominant bot lanes in the league.

The bad: The meta fits Concept’s pool, but there’s very few top laners in the league that won’t just skill check him on carries. R5 is going to be this team’s kryptonite against the teams I have ranked above them. I believe the jungle meta doesn’t fit Will’s pool very well, and I wonder how willing/able he will be to adapt to different champions and styles for his teammates.

Wildcard Gaming

Zamudo — Keel — Soligo — Lens —Duoking1

The Good: Everyone’s favorite offmeta monsters take the 6 spot for me, assuming that Isles does indeed end up coming back and playing. I believe Zamudo is a straight upgrade from Moosehater, and still stylistically gives them a lot of options to niche/off-meta top laners that were their bread and butter last split. With less LCS affiliated orgs, it’ll be interesting to see if teams continue to opt into any off meta strategies that Wildcard tend to lean into, or if teams continue to ego.

The Bad: Zamudo took quite some time off to grind solo queue in Korea, so he may end up being a bit rusty on his return to comp. If Isles is unable to play long term/not at all this split due to visa issues or otherwise, Wildcard drops a bit to me. I also think that there’s a world where the niche picks are not as effective this time around or that teams are better able to adapt to them in Wildcard’s second split in the league.

Maryville University

Niles — OddOrange — Getback — ScaryJerry — Zyko

The Good: This core of players has been playing throughout the entire collegiate year, all of Spring, and even before that a bit, so they don’t have any real need to adjust to each other the same way some of these other rosters will. Niles and OddOrange are one of the few top/jungle pairings I believe can punish some of the other top laners in the league effectively, and that will net them some wins alone. Zyko is sleeper strong compared to a lot of other players in his role.

The Bad: Team just lost in CLOL Nationals against UST again, so hopefully there will be no hangover from that performance headed into the split. Ironically last year after the same thing happened they actually started stomping through OQs, so maybe lighting strikes twice. I think this will be the first time that Getback has played better competition in quite a while, and for ScaryJerry it’s arguably the first time he’s been in a position where a majority of other ADs will be better than him (on paper). I think this team likely gets off to a hot start and maybe slows down as the season goes on.

Last but not least, these are the 3 teams in my mind that will be happy if they’re able to avoid being in relegation, and luckily for them at least one of them won’t. Might end up being the “hot takes” of the bunch but we’ll see.

Evil Geniuses Challengers

Soul — Sheiden — Ryoma — King — Smoothie

The Good: While Mobility played admirably in King’s absence, I believe having him on the roster gives a massive boost to this team. Sheiden is still an insane talent in the jungle, although he definitely has not lived up to the insane hype that everyone has given him for years up until this point; then again, meta and situation has not been set up for him to shine through.

The Bad: Smoothie struggled quite a bit last split, and it’ll be interesting to see how much of that was solo vs. the bot lane dynamic as a whole. With a more experienced ADC at this level, his performance may look upwards. Soul also needs to be much more consistent against the other top laners, which is the most stacked role in the league in my opinion.

Think this team is the one most likely that I would be dead wrong about, if any.

Team Fish Taco

Lunacia — Rosethorn — Onat — Spawn — nxi

The Good: Lunacia had a very strong showing on a really weak FlyFam roster last split; he was their biggest threat on a roster that very much needed it. Spawn coming from the 2nd best NACL team last split and falling in TFT’s lap is a massive win for them. I believe he will outclass most of the other bot laners individually in the league, however.

The Bad: Prismal, Skytec, Rovex, Sword, Joey all are not on NACL+ rosters headed into Summer. This doesn’t include other supports that are in NACLQ that are also very good. I have no idea what nxi is doing down here.

Supernova

Qwacker — Music — Robbybob — Sketchdreams — Trevor

The Good: Sketch back on ADC is a good sight to see, and I believe him and Trevor will be a main reason for this team’s wins. Robbybob performed admirably when filling in for EG Challengers last split. Music has a lot of potential upside.

The Bad: Don’t want to be super evil, but I think majority of this team is 8–10th in their roles individually and was put together VERY last minute. I am concerned for how Qwacker and Music will deal with being thrown into such stiff competition.

Most likely to overperform: Evil Geniuses Challengers

Most likely to underperform: AOE Esports

Best Top Laners: Bradley/FakeGod/Faisal

Best Junglers: Tomio/Mir/Perry

Best Mid Laners: APA/Young/Spirax

Best ADCs: Spawn/Meech/Massu

Best Supports: Winsome/Zeyzal/Isles

Most Valuable Prospect: Massu