Will the Brewers Deal From Their Pitching Depth?

The offense is in need of reinforcements, but will David Stearns and Matt Arnold find the right deal that motivates them to move a pitcher?

Graphic adapted from images via @brewers on Twitter

While an inexcusably poor showing in the NLDS painted an over-exaggerated picture of the Brewers’ offensive shortcomings, the fact is that the team needs to upgrade their lineup in some capacity.

After Willy Adames arrived in Milwaukee in late May, the Brewers posted a 97 wRC+ as a team through the remainder of the season. That’s not a terrible figure, but a team in search of a World Series should be rolling out at least a league-average lineup. On the season as a whole, they finished 23rd out of 30 teams with a 91 wRC+.

Again, the emergence of Adames as a stabilizing force changed the picture for the better. Christian Yelich should bounce back to some extent in 2022 as well. The Brewers also took a step toward addressing their offense by rethinking their coaching structure. They took the unusual step of hiring two hitting coaches — the old-school Ozzie Timmons and the analytically-minded Connor Dawson. David Stearns expressed a desire to bring in yet another coach as an assistant.

However, there remains work to be done. The Brewers must replace their top power bat in Avisail Garcia, who is highly likely to depart in free agency after declining his end of a mutual option for next season. Furthermore, while the new coaching structure may help, the quality of the hitters on the roster will always have the greatest impact on team performance at the plate.

Options exist in free agency. Mark Canha would be a great fit on paper. Left-handed bats Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber would be pricier choices. Nick Castellanos may be one of the most coveted bats on the market.

Another suggestion is to upgrade the lineup through a trade. Matt Olson and Matt Chapman figure to be available as the Oakland Athletics begin their teardown. The Yankees might be willing to part with 2020 home run champion Luke Voit as they search for a more well-known commodity. Rockies infielder Ryan McMahon possesses a unique combination of power and versatility and has breakout potential.

The Brewers do not have a highly-rated farm system to utilize in a trade, but they do boast a deep pitching staff. Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer had solid seasons as back-of-the-rotation starters. Aaron Ashby reached the big leagues in 2021 as part of Milwaukee’s next wave of promising young arms, and Ethan Small is about to join him. Would the Brewers explore dealing from their stable of hurlers?

When asked about the possibility of dealing from an organizational strength to address a weakness, Stearns responded mainly with his typical GM speak.

“When you have the depth we have and people know you have the depth we have, it yields conversations and people call,” he told MLB.com. “And so, it’s natural to have conversations, and I’m certain those conversations will progress throughout the offseason.”

Translated: other organizations unsurprisingly like the Brewers’ pitching, and Stearns and Matt Arnold are always listening to offers. However, listening to offers is not the same as actively pursuing a trade, let alone completing one.

Milwaukee’s President of Baseball Operations did express some hesitancy to part with any arms, saying that “it’s really tough to trade pitching.” This should come as no surprise, as the Stearns brain trust has always prioritized depth.

However, Stearns and Arnold dealt from their collection of hurlers on multiple occasions this year. They flipped Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen to the Tampa Bay Rays for Adames and Trevor Richards. After just 15 appearances, Richards was shipped to the Toronto Blue Jays for Rowdy Tellez.

There are a number of factors to consider in a potential deal. For one thing, the Brewers are not guaranteed to receive a big bat in return even if they are willing to part with some pitching. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta would each net a massive return, but they are highly unlikely to be moved. It’s not often that a team develops three controllable All-Star starting pitchers simultaneously.

Houser and Lauer make up the next tier of starters on the roster. Both posted ERAs in the low-3.00s in 2021, but their peripherals were much closer to those of a back-of-the-rotation starter. Potential trade partners may not think too highly of Houser, who is essentially reliant on one pitch (his elite sinker) and often runs into trouble with walks. 26-year-old Lauer, who is younger and carries more upside, seems more likely to net a useful bat.

If the Brewers have their eyes on an elite player like Olson (career 134 OPS+ and 5.1 bWAR per 162 games), they would have to part with a substantial package that includes one of Ashby or Small. The question then becomes whether or not they would be willing to part with either of those promising southpaws.

You could use the Adames trade to argue that the Brewers are willing to part with their best pitching prospects in the right deal. However, they may not have valued Rasmussen as highly as they do Ashby and Small. Rasmussen has a history of elbow problems, and Milwaukee could have seen him as a reliever long-term.

As Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta bounced between the big leagues and Triple-A in 2017, 2018, and 2019, the contending Brewers fielded plenty of calls on each member of the trio from rebuilding teams. They refused to part with any of them, and now they form a three-headed monster atop their starting rotation. Perhaps Milwaukee has a similar vision for Ashby and Small.

The Brewers will listen. Maybe they’ll move Lauer for a solid controllable hitter. Otherwise, it is difficult to envision the Brewers finding the perfect deal that would move them to part with any member of their starting pitching core. Free agency remains the easiest way for Milwaukee to upgrade their offense.