Things are Getting Weird In Russia, Even for Russia

The first thing I want to cover today is the idea that a mobilization is already underway. Of course, the regions where this is happening are not precisely filled with the well-connected or wealthy. So it is more meat for the meat grinder, because Russia cannot get enough troops to reconstitute units. Fun fact: units have not left the front line since the beginning of the war. However, most of these units are filled with new people because casualties are so high that they just bring in replacements. This betrays something different about Russia and its way of war. So a marine unit is the same exact unit, just with a different numbering system. At this point, most of her personnel are new or newer. The people who have a better chance of survival are the administrative logistics troops that tend to stay in the rear.

So when you read this, bear that in mind. They need bodies to replace the dead. And they do not care that the life expectancy of new troops is measured in minutes. On paper, that means the unit was reconstituted. I just hope these poor bastards, who may not be willing participants, at least get money for the family:

Compulsory mobilization begins in Omsk, following Penza and Ulyanovsk

In Omsk, men are being detained on the streets for forced deployment to the war in Ukraine. According to relatives of 31-year-old Dmitry S., on August 8th, he was sitting on a bench with a bottle of beer when several people in civilian clothes approached him, restrained him, and took him to an unknown location.

Later, the man reported that he was at the “Sirius 55” military service recruitment center, where he was forced to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense under duress. “He said they made documents and bank cards for him. They forced him to sign the contract. His passport and military ID are at home. He is married and has a regular job,” relatives reported. They contacted the prosecutor’s office, but were told to gather additional documents and return.

A similar incident occurred in Omsk in July. Then, the police detained a city resident near a bus stop: he was walking home from work and was in a state of mild intoxication, according to the son of the detained man. According to him, his father was hit in the ribs and taken to precinct №5 on Moskovka, where for almost two days they tried to persuade him to sign a contract, using physical and psychological pressure. The man refused and was only released after relatives reported his disappearance.

So we are at the point where either the Russians are testing the waters to see what the reaction will be. Or we are already seeing a mobilization in the shadows. And to be brutally honest, it is probably both. Russians are not really protesting this, particularly because fear is a powerful thing. And the Russian government has removed Yabloko, the apple party, from the ballot. The only party running on a peace platform. So read this as you will. I do not think Vladimir Putin wants to give Russians a chance to tell him, “ We are opposed to this war, even in tightly controlled elections, where results are already determined:

Russia’s Supreme Court on Monday canceled the registration of the liberal Yabloko party’s federal slate of candidates for next month’s State Duma elections.

In a high-stakes hearing, the court granted a lawsuit filed by the small nationalist party Rodina, which accused Yabloko of receiving foreign funding, violating copyright law and promoting “extremism.”

The Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko from the parliamentary elections primarily for alleged copyright violations during campaign activity. Election authorities and state prosecutors said they also documented the violations.

In the court’s view, campaign materials linked to Yabloko’s website used protected intellectual property without acquiring the proper rights or permissions. This included song lyrics, film footage, photographs and even images generated by ChatGPT.

The ruling removes Russia’s oldest liberal party — and what was the only registered party campaigning on a pro-peace platform — from the nationwide party-list ballot.

Russia is at this point a kleptocracy, and even in the middle of a war, which may expand to make it even more urgent, the kleptocracy continues to take shape. It is not that it continues to take hold, because it is deeply entrenched at this point. This is just another day ending in Y for who you know and what benefits you. Assuming you support the dear leader and send him his cut. In Mexico, we used to call this mordida, and every one of these came with a cut going up the chain:

Nationalized Tambov Distillery Sold to a Putin Friend for Half Price

“Rossspiritprom” purchased 72.87% of the shares of the nationalized Tambov distillery “Amber Talvis” for 1.94 billion rubles. This is the minimum price, twice less than the initial price of 3.89 billion rubles set by Rosimushchestvo, according to “Vedomosti,” citing the auction protocol. “Rossspiritprom” was the only participant in the auction. After the deal, the company’s stake in the enterprise will increase from approximately 25.5% to about 98.4%.

“Rossspiritprom” is the largest producer of ethyl alcohol in Russia. It owns eight factories with a capacity of 22.5 million deciliters per year, as well as two service companies. According to The Insider, the beneficiary of the company is billionaire Arkady Rotenberg, a friend of President Vladimir Putin. Previously, “Amber Talvis” belonged to businessman Yuri Shefler. In July 2024, the billionaire’s assets were transferred to the state treasury at the request of the Prosecutor General’s Office, which accused him of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Shefler himself and the companies controlled by him were recognized as an “extremist organization.”

And I see Arkady Rotenberg, a good friend of Putin, going back to St Petersburg and the Ozero Dacha Cooperative, is coming on top again. It is good to know the boss, I guess. And they are very good friends, you scratch my back, I scratch yours. It is as it’s always been.

This is precisely how Oligarchs become very wealthy and, in some cases, above the law. Yes, I am betting that if Rotenberg were stopped by a cop, name-dropping would be enough to avoid a ticket. I included this to show you how these relationships are built. There are other recent examples.

So what else is new? Or just part of a pattern? Well, here is the economy, because it is not healthy. And Russians are watching what they spend. At least most Russians. I am sure the Rotenberg clan is fine, and can afford the finest things in life, including gas:

“Companies are closing down.” A sharp decline in footwear production has begun in Russia.

Footwear production in Russia has decreased following a shift in consumer behavior towards austerity. In January-June, domestic enterprises produced 97.6 million pairs of shoes, which is 12.4% less than in the same period last year. The production of shoes, in particular, fell the most sharply — by 36.5% year-on-year, to 4 million pairs. The production of boots decreased by 13.6% to 10.1 million pairs, and slippers by 9.9% to 46.5 million. This information comes from the “Honest Mark” product labeling system, as reported by “Kommersant.”

At the same time, in the first half of 2026, Russia imported 200.9 million pairs of shoes, which is 3.5% more than in the same period last year. Kari, a retail chain, attributed this to the fact that Chinese manufacturers and suppliers now have the opportunity to enter Russian online marketplaces and offer their products at lower prices. Consumers are increasingly buying shoes during promotions and special offers, according to a representative of the footwear retailer. “As a result, some companies are already reducing production or closing down, and the resulting gap is being filled by imported shoes, mainly from China,” stated Alexander Andrunakievich, CEO of the Russian Association of Leather and Footwear Manufacturers.

When people start shopping for cheaper shoes, you know money is not going as far as it once did. And this matters in the long run. Because Russians know that their standard of living is going down. However, it is not like they can vote their way out of this. It’s near impossible to get rid of an oligarch through elections. We also have a slightly contradictory story, and whether this is a temporary thing, or bad numbers, or will be revised later is a good question. Because most of the economy is indeed having trouble:

The production rates of steel and finished rolled products in July were the highest since the beginning of the year, increasing by 3.1% and 0.8% respectively.

The growth was driven by a revival in domestic demand, rising prices, and a reduction in supply in certain regions.

However, analysts believe that the potential for further increases in metal production is limited due to difficulties with exports from Black Sea ports and still-high interest rates on loans.

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So I will need to keep an eye on that, and given this is the main business paper, why it matters. This may indicate a dead cat bounce. Or perhaps somebody massaged the numbers, or we really do not know how this happened. But I have my doubts that this indicates the Russian economy is getting better, but it bears watching.

As an aside, Latvia seems to have found how to counter Gerbera II drones. Granted, I did smile when I read this, because this is exactly one of the solutions I have been advocating for some time. We need prop jobs for drone hunting, and as Russia continues to test the waters, these will be useful regardless:

In Latvia, they have found a way to counter “Shahed” drones — drawing on Ukrainian experience, the country is considering the possibility of purchasing Brazilian A-29 Super Tucano attack aircraft from the company Embraer, according to the local publication SARGS.

The Latvian Air Force Command discussed this at the Global Air & Space Chiefs conference in London.

These aircraft have a special guidance system called Gunslinger for combating “Shahed” drones.

Latvia is not the only country interested in the Super Tucano.

Along with Latvia, other NATO countries are evaluating the A-29 as one of the options for countering drone threats.

It is nice to see that one thing I have been discussing for at least a year is now in the near-operational range. Partially because I expect Russia to continue testing the waters with NATO and Europe’s East Flank.

So keep your eyes peeled for the inevitable stories that will grow as Russian testing of the waters continues. And if (when) they carry out a mobilization after the elections, things may become more interesting. For the first time since 2012, we are seeing signs of protests in Russia. These are over the ban on the Liberal Party, and they are small. However, they are starting to show some willingness to protest. And they will probably grow, so Russia will inevitably close the country even more.