A Proposed Mathematical Model for Wardley Maps — Part 4

Working Out the “Evolution” Value for a Single Component

Following on from Part 3, below is an explanation, how to identify the evolution and visibility for a single component.

1. Model Recap

We use the following formula for Evolution:

Where:

0 means extremely rare or unknown in the market. 1 means widely available, used everywhere.

0 means highly uncertain, no stable best practices, “frontier” territory. 1 means fully standardised, best practices well understood.

Thus, Evolution is the average of two key factors: ubiquity and certainty.

2. Example: “AI-Enhanced Kettle”

Let’s say you have an AI-Enhanced Kettle that uses humidity sensors and AI to adjust the boil temperature. You want to place it on your Wardley Map.

2.1. Ubiquity

It’s only in a few speciality stores, so it’s not widespread.

You might assign

= 0.2.

2.2. Certainty

There are no clear industry standards for AI-based kettle features; it’s new.

You might assign

= 0.3.

2.3. Compute Evolution

Using

we have:

Hence, Evolution = 0.25.

3. Interpretation

A value of 0.25 indicates your kettle is still far left on the “Genesis → Commodity” continuum.

Low ubiquity = not common in stores or homes yet. Low/moderate certainty = no well-established best practices or standards.

Therefore, it resides in a custom / emerging zone, not yet a stable or widely adopted product.

4. Changing Over Time

If market adoption increases (ubiquity ↗) and standardisation (certainty ↗) solidifies, the AI-Kettle’s evolution moves rightward:

Suppose after 2 years, you measure:

Then:

positioning it closer to a product / commodity status.

5. Summary

Determine

Determine

Calculate

The result

defines how far along your component is on the “Genesis → Commodity” scale, providing a clear horizontal coordinate on your Wardley Map.