Is the Iran War Over?

The Iran War could be over. US and Iranian officials are close to a one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) that could end the war, Axios claims.

Under the memo, combat will end, and negotiations on other issues will begin. The other issues include Iran’s nuclear program, billions in frozen Iranian funds, and transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The memorandum could be contingent on a final agreement. They will hold talks in Geneva, or Islamabad, Pakistan’s capitol to write the agreement.

Nazi Flak tower in Vienna

Hence, combat could end, but legally the war could continue. Such negotiations can last forever. For example, there is no peace treaty ending the Korean War. However, Korean War combat ended with an armistice agreement on 27 July 1953. Combat ended because leaders on both sides realized they could gain nothing from further fighting.

Combat ends, but the war continues

Thus, we could have an end to combat but no agreement. Cynics will say that the Trump administration has concluded they cannot win the war. Therefore, they want a face-saving solution or at least something they can spin as “victory” for the voters.

Interestingly, the MOU rumors come after two days of Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All the drones were shot down, UAE authorities claim. However, a fire broke out at Furkaoraj, where a key oil terminal is located, Al Jazeera reports.

Thus, President Donald J. Trump Senior (R-Florida) is backing down as Iranian forces demonstrate they can damage key oil facilities. Attacks on Oman, another key oil producer, were reported on 4 May 2026.

The United Arab Emirates was the world’s seventh largest oil producer in 2025, Worldometer estimates. Plus, the UAE had the world’s sixth largest oil reserves in 2025.

I wonder if Trump fears the Iranians could disrupt UAE oil production, further driving up fuel prices. Tellingly, the average US gasoline price rose to $4.536 a gallon on 6 May 2026, the AAA estimates. Meanwhile, the average diesel price rose to $5.674 on 6 May 2026.

Further fuel price increases could doom Republican efforts to hold control of the US Congress. Republicans will need the war to end and fuel prices to fall to keep many Congressional seats this fall.

The Drones Have Won

Furthermore, I wonder if military advisors have told Trump that they cannot defend the UAE from drone attacks. I think the Ukraine War shows there is no good defense against drone attacks.

For example, they will display no military equipment at Russia’s Victory Day Parade in Moscow on 9 May 2026. Historically, the Victory Day Parade is an enormous display of Russian military power to commemorate Nazi Germany’s defeat. However, this year, they will display no military equipment for the first time since 2008, the Associated Press reports.

The Russian Defense Ministry states the “current operational situation” as the reason for not having military equipment and active duty troops in the parade, the Associated Press reports. Russian generals are afraid drones could hit the parade and destroy military equipment or kill soldiers. Hence, the Ministry admits it cannot defend Red Square, right in front of the Kremlin, where they hold the parade from drone attacks.

Putin Adopts Failed Nazi Strategy

Ironically, the Ministry’s admission comes despite elaborate and expensive efforts to defend Moscow. For example, they have built 43 “air defense towers” around Moscow.

German Flak tower under construction in 1943

The towers are not very effective. A drone hit a residential building in Moscow on 4 May 2026, Russian media reports. The luxury apartment building is just six kilometers from the Kremlin, The Kyiv Post reports.

The air defense tower strategy reminds me of the last years of World War II when the Nazis built giant concrete flak towers to defend German and Austrian cities from American, British, and Canadian air attacks. These giant towers were a miserable failure. US production enabled the US Army Air Force and the Royal Air Force to attack Germany with thousands of bombers.

By 1944, new planes, such as the North American P-51 Mustang, allowed Allied fighter pilots to fly all the way to Berlin from Britain. This allowed the Allied air forces to shoot down Luftwaffe fighters and let the bombers reduce German and Austrian cities to rubble. Despite the flak towers. Bizarrely, some of these flak towers still stand in German and Austrian cities 81 years after World War II.

A flak tower in modern Hamburg

Unfortunately, fanatical Nazis like dictator Adolph Hitler, fought to the bitter end. Der Fuhrer shot himself in a bunker under the rubble of his chancellery in Berlin, where he was hiding from Soviet invaders. The Soviets only reached Berlin because American and RAF fighters had shot down the Luftwaffe’s planes, clearing the path for invasion. A little detail they will not mention at the Kremlin’s Victory Day celebration.

It sounds as if Russian President Vladimir Putin and his advisors are as delusional as Hitler was. Notably, the Kremlin has adopted a failed Nazi tactic: air defense towers. Hopefully, Trump is not as delusional as his buddy Putin.

Thus, the Iran War could be over and the drones have won. Tellingly, drones are also winning the Ukraine War, but many people don’t seem to pay attention.

https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/iran-us-deal-one-page-memo

https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/hkm2nlur11l

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/5/uae-intercepts-missiles-and-drones-for-second-day

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/united-arab-emirates-oil/

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75521

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war-articles/flak-towers.html

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75335

https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/196263/north-american-p-51d-mustang/