EARTH DAY

How generational replacement affects Green party support

New research connects younger people and environmental support

Photo via Flickr

Next week, on April 22, we will commemorate Earth Day, an annual event to demonstrate support for environmental protection. Increased awareness of environmental issues and growing concerns over climate change and global warming have contributed to increased support for Green parties. And so has generational replacement.

A recent study by Florian Lichtin, Wouter van der Brug, and Roderik Rekker found that each new generation in Western Europe is more likely to support Green parties than previous generations. The researchers refer to the difference in behavior between generations as generational replacement.

How the researchers analyzed support for Green parties

Lichtin and colleagues used data from the Comparative Studies of Electoral Systems (CSES), which consists of numerous post-election studies from 56 countries dating back to 1990. They studied 40 elections from 11 Western European countries to examine generational replacement and Green party support.

The researchers created an age, period, and generational cohort (APC) model, dividing voters by cohorts based on the time period in which they turned 18 years old. The cohorts included: before 1960, 1960s-70s, 1980s-90s, and after 2000.

Because previous research shows young people are more likely to support Green parties, Lichtin and colleagues also studied whether life-cycle effects mattered. Life-cycle effects are individual changes in attitudes and political preferences that occur as one ages. To study life-cycle effects, the researchers grouped CES respondents in their study by age: 18–21, 22–29, 30–65, and 65+.

Lichtin and colleagues used statistical methods to compare the effects of generational replacement or life-cycle on support for Green parties.

How generational replacement influences Green party support

The figure above from the study shows how likeability for the Green party is higher for more recent cohorts than older cohorts. Individuals that turned 18 after 2000 are more likely to support the Green party than individuals who turned 18 before 1960.

Lichtin and the researchers’ study found that with each new generation, support for the Green parties increased across Western Europe. The researchers infer that the increase is likely due to the fact that newer generations have been politically socialized in an era of increasing environmental politics.

But life cycle effects also matter

The figure above from the study shows how likeability of the Green party is higher among younger age groups, and lower among older age groups. In other words, as people get older, their support for Green parties decreases.

While life-cycle effects influenced support for the Green parties of Western Europe, it was not as influential as generational replacement.

The outlook of Green parties’ support

Lichtin and colleagues’ study suggests that generational replacement could lead the Green party to continue to grow as time goes on. Support for Green parties increases with each new generation, illustrating a positive outlook for future environmental politics.

Life-cycle effects may limit the gains of generational replacement. Lichtin and colleagues’ study shows that generational replacement’s effect on Green party support is more significant than life-cycle effects. However, the life-cycle effects will likely slow the benefits of generational replacement.

This post is part of a 3Streams partnership with the Minority Serving Institution Research Academy (MSIRA) at UC Riverside.