S&P 500 Soars to New Heights: A Rare Technical Signal Points to Bullish Momentum

Photo by David Vives on Unsplash

The S&P 500 has demonstrated remarkable resilience, surging past its consolidation phase in late June to achieve a series of all-time highs. Over the past 15 trading sessions, the index notched six record closes, contributing to a year-to-date tally of nine new peaks.

From a technical perspective, as of Thursday, July 18, the S&P 500 has maintained a position above its 20-day moving average for an impressive 59 consecutive sessions — the longest such streak since at least 2000 (see Chart 1).

This sustained momentum is a rare phenomenon. Since 2000, the index has only achieved this feat seven other times, making the current run the eighth in nearly 25 years.

Historical data indicates that while short-term performance after such streaks may be muted, with average returns turning negative over the next 5 and 10 sessions, the medium- to long-term outlook remains promising. Over a 200-trading-day horizon, the average return reached 5.8%, with a 70% success rate — five out of seven instances yielding positive returns, the highest win rate across all measured periods (see Chart 2).

Chart 1:

Chart 2: