Breaking Down the Cedars: A Data Driven Scouting Report for Lebanon’s Qatar Asia Cup Qualifiers

By the numbers, what our EDA reveals about Lebanon, India, and Saudi Arabia ahead of the crucial February 27 and March 2 clashes.

FLB

The Qatar Asia Cup Qualifiers are here, and the Lebanese national basketball team, our Cedars has two critical battles ahead: Saudi Arabia on February 27, followed by India on March 2. Rather than relying on gut feel, we ran a full exploratory data analysis across all three rosters to understand exactly what Lebanon is walking into. Here’s what the data told us.

Sergio Darwich

The Lay of the Land, Team Aggregate Stats

Before zooming into matchups, let’s look at the big picture. Across all key categories per game:

Stat Lebanon India Saudi Arabia

The immediate headline? Saudi Arabia is the real threat. They lead in scoring, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, blocks, and assists. Lebanon’s edge lies in its free throw shooting , the best of the three teams, and its rebounding dominance, pulling down 39 boards per game.

India, on the other hand, is the most exploitable matchup. A 23.8% FG% is staggering , one of the worst shooting rates you’ll see at this level. They compensate with activity (10.5 steals per game), but their offense is simply not converting.

Lebanon’s Strengths, What the Cedars Do Well?

Wael Arakji Is a Problem

Wael Arakji

The data doesn’t lie: Wael Arakji is the best individual player in this tournament. At 20 PPG on 46.7% FG% with 5.0 APG and 5.0 RPG in over 32 minutes per game, he is Lebanon’s engine, distributor, and closer all in one. No player on India or Saudi Arabia matches his combination of volume, efficiency, and playmaking at this level.

Scoring vs. Minutes Played

Ball Movement & Team Offense

Lebanon’s 18.5 APG reflects a team that plays unselfishly. Sergio El Darwich (5.5 APG) and Arakji (5.0 APG) form one of the most dangerous backcourt duos in the qualifiers in terms of creation. The offense flows through multiple handlers, making it harder to scheme against.

Rebounding Dominance

Lebanon leads all three teams in defensive rebounding (31.5 DRPG). Dedric Lawson is a force on the glass, 11.5 RPG makes him one of the most impactful big men in this field. Controlling the paint and limiting second chance opportunities is where Lebanon asserts its physical edge.

Lebanon Player Contributions

Free Throw Advantage

Lebanon converts 54.2% from the line, well ahead of India (35.0%) and Saudi Arabia (44.3%). In close games, this matters enormously. Getting to the line and converting is a legitimate path to winning margin.

FT%

Lebanon’s Weaknesses, What Needs to Be Addressed

The Three Point Problem

17.6% from three is a glaring vulnerability. In modern basketball, this inefficiency from beyond the arc is a liability that opponents can scheme around. Lebanon isn’t spacing the floor effectively, and when shots don’t fall, the offense collapses into half-court isolation. This also hurts FG% overall, at 40.4%, Lebanon is middle of the pack, not elite.

FG% & 3PT%

Turnovers, 15.5 per Game

Lebanon and Saudi Arabia are tied for the most turnovers in this group. For a team built around ball movement and playmaking, 15.5 TOV/game is self defeating. Arakji (3.5 TOV/game) and El Darwich (3.0 TOV/game) are the primary culprits — the price of having your creators touch the ball most. This has to be cleaned up against Saudi Arabia’s length and athleticism.

Perimeter Defense

With only 5.5 steals per game, nearly half what India and Saudi Arabia generate, Lebanon’s perimeter defense lags behind. Against a Saudi team that spaces the floor with active guards, passive perimeter defense creates open corner threes and driving lanes.

Ball Security: Assists vs Turnovers

Game 1: Lebanon vs. Saudi Arabia (February 27)

This is the tougher of the two matchups, and the data confirms it.

The Saudi Threat: Abdur-Rahkman is scorching hot, 23.5 PPG at 50% FG. He is arguably the most dangerous scorer in the tournament. More critically, Saudi Arabia shoots an elite 93.3% from the free throw line on the individual level, meaning fouling them in the fourth quarter is a losing strategy. Their 4 blocks per game on the interior also means Lebanon can’t simply overload the paint.

Top Scorers

How Lebanon Wins?

The key is turnover control above all else. Saudi Arabia’s 10.5 steals per game is exactly the defense that feasts on reckless passes. Every turnover Lebanon gifts them is a fast break opportunity for a team that can already score.

Lebanon should lean into its free throw advantage, draw fouls, get to the line, and convert. Saudi Arabia commits 11.5 fouls per game, which is the lowest of the three teams but still exploitable. Arakji and Lawson should be hunting contact, not jump shots.

Defensively, the answer to Abdur-Rahkman is early physicality and double-team rotations. Don’t let him get comfortable in isolations. Drag him into half-court sets where El Darwich’s length and Hadidian’s energy can make him work.

Defensive & Physical Stats Heatmap

Game 2: Lebanon vs. India (March 2)

This is Lebanon’s most winnable game, but complacency is the enemy.

India’s Fatal Flaw: A 23.8% FG% means India is missing roughly 3 out of every 4 shots. Their offensive game plan is largely broken. However, their 10.5 steals per game is elite, meaning they compensate with pressure and transition basketball. They want Lebanon to play sloppy and fast.

Shooting Efficiency

How Lebanon Wins?

Play slow, play patient, play smart. Lebanon’s ball movement offense thrives in half-court sets. Don’t let India turn this into a chaos game of turnovers and quick shots. Arakji and El Darwich should control tempo entirely, there’s no reason to rush against a team that can’t score efficiently.

Exploit India’s poor FT% (35.0%) by forcing them to the line defensively, draw fouls aggressively on their big men, then make your own free throws. In crunch time, this differential can be decisive. Lebanon also has a significant rebounding edge: 39 RPG vs. India’s 38, with Lawson capable of physically dominating their interior.

Team Strengths & Weaknesses

Strategic Adjustments for the Coaching Staff

Implement a shot quality filter for three-pointers

The 3PT volume isn’t the problem, it’s the selection. Karim Zeinoun (66.7% 3P%) and Gerard Hadidian (62.5% FG overall) show that Lebanon has efficient shooters. The team needs to run more actions to free these players up for catch and shoot opportunities rather than settling for off-balance attempts.

Assign turnover ownership

Every high usage player: Arakji, El Darwich, needs a personal TOV ceiling target per game. Against Saudi Arabia’s pressure, this isn’t optional; it’s game winning discipline.

Deploy Lawson as a free-throw magnet

11.5 rebounds means he’s already in the paint constantly. With Lebanon’s FT% advantage over both opponents, funneling more post touches through Lawson and drawing fouls is a macro level strategic win.

Dedrick Lawson

Press defense for India

Given India’s ball security issues and Lebanon’s assist-driven offense, experimenting with full court pressure against India could force early turnovers and easy transition baskets before they settle into their already broken half-court offense.

Double team philosophy vs. Abdur Rahkman

Saudi Arabia’s supporting cast is good but not elite. Make their role players beat Lebanon. Abdur Rahkman at 23.5 PPG cannot be guarded straight up, we can use Mark Khoury’s energy on defense.

Mark Khoury

The Bottom Line

Lebanon enters these qualifiers as a well coached, experienced team with elite individual talent in Arakji and a legitimate defensive anchor in Lawson. The data paints a clear picture: the ceiling is a sweep of both games, and the floor is a split, but only if turnovers are managed and three-point shooting finds its floor.

India is beatable on paper and in practice. Saudi Arabia will test Lebanon’s maturity, roster depth, and coaching adjustments in real time.

The ingredients for success are all there. The question, as always, is execution.

Go Get ’Em, Cedars!

To every player on this Lebanese national team, from Arakji’s leadership to Lawson’s grit, from El Darwich’s two way impact to the energy pieces who make the system work, this country is behind you.

We’ve seen what this team is capable of. We’ve seen the fight, the passion, and the pride every time the cedars crest appears on that jersey.

Go out there on February 27 and March 2 and show the world what Lebanese basketball is made of.

The data says you can win. Now go prove it.

Yalla Lebnen! Good luck, our Cedars. We believe in you. 🇱🇧

Roster

Analysis based on player and team statistics from the most recent Qatar Asia Cup Qualifier games, processed via Python EDA with pandas, matplotlib, and seaborn.