Certainty Shot Full of Holes

Certainty, according to Webster’s, is “the quality or state of being certain especially on the basis of evidence.” Last week provided several variations on this theme, some praiseworthy, and some not so much.

First, several criminal justice experts confessed they didn’t know why homicide rates for the 40 biggest cities in the United States had declined to their lowest levels in a century. While citing a number of factors, such as increased resources for mental illness and support for community organizations, the experts could not empirically relate any significant factor for the decline.

No such doubts clouded the mind of our imperious commissioner of the New York Police Department (NYPD), Jessica Tisch, who knew the exact reason for a decline in homicide in the city for the first three months of the year: her “precision-policing model” that sends teams of officers to high-crime areas. The idea that New York’s decline in homicides should mirror the nationwide decline, and for a similar agglomeration of factors, and not because of Tisch’s brilliance, was an idea fit only for a non-believer.

Similar certainty was expressed by the commissioner regarding the increase in sexual assault, which has been steadily increasing for years. The commissioner attributed the increase to a legislative redefinition of certain aspects of sexual assault, which has been the go-to explanation for as long as the increase has been registered. The Daily News, however, had the bad form to note the commissioner offered no proof that this increase was due to an increase in those redefined aspects of sexual assault, the paper failing to get the memo about not raising problematic concerns regarding the commissioner’s approved narrative. The commissioner was equally as certain that an increase in subway crime was due to officers not ejecting from subway stations mentally ill persons looking to stay warm, which is the sort of anecdotal explanation not worthy of someone who claims to be “driven by data.”

One thing the NYPD was uncertain about last week was the status of the firearm brandished by the man who warrant officers shot and killed while attempting an arrest in the Bronx. “It was not immediately clear if the pistol was a B.B. gun or something more lethal,” the Daily News noted. I know I would be hard pressed to distinguish between a B.B. gun and an actual firearm, but I think I am safe in saying that police officers should be able to make such a distinction, especially after examining the weapon.

Seeing as how the department released information about the man’s death several hours after the shooting, and presumably in the intervening time had ample time to investigate the exact status of the gun, I am unclear as to how it was possible to not be certain whether the “pistol was a B.B. gun” or not. But then I am seeking certainty in places where it is necessary and asking for uncertainty in places where the facts are unclear. Clearly, I have this all backwards. I think.