Will Tennessee be More Motivated than Florida?

Vols Hope to End 10-game Losing Streak at The Swamp

Tennessee is 7–3 and has little chance of making the College Football Playoff.

Florida is 3–7 and has no chance of making even a second-tier bowl game.

So which team has the most motivation when the Vols visit the Gators on Saturday? Kickoff time is 7:30 pm on ABC. UT is a 4.5-point favorite. The over/under is 57.5 points.

The Swamp has been a house of horrors for the Vols.

Tennessee has lost 10 in a row at Florida, dating to 2005. UT has lost to Gator coaches who were eventually fired: Mullen, Muschamp, McElwain, Napier. The Vols have lost to Florida teams that ended the season with losing records: 4–7 and 4–8 and 5–7 and 6–7. They lost twice on late touchdown passes of 63 yards.

Whatever can go wrong, usually does for Tennessee at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

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Vols coach Josh Heupel isn’t ignoring the past failures.

“We talked about it briefly,” Heupel said of UT’s losing streak at Florida. “This is a great game and it’s going to be a great stage. But one play doesn’t have anything to do with the next and a previous trip down to Gainesville doesn’t have anything to do with (this game).”

Maybe not, but you wonder if constantly losing at the Swamp has been an elephant on the back of some Vols.

And you wonder if Gator players have an inner belief that someway, they’ll find out a way to beat Tennessee. Like throwing a desperation 63-yard touchdown pass for a 28–27 win when UT wasn’t in prevent coverage.

For some reason, Florida plays one of its two or three best games of the season when hosting Tennessee.

Will that continue?

Despite its abysmal record, the Florida team that beat Texas and played well in close defeats to Georgia and Ole Miss is plenty capable of beating Tennessee.

The Florida team that gave minimal effort in a 38–7 loss to Kentucky would end its UT home win streak.

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The quarterback battle

Tennessee’s Joey Aguiklar leads the SEC in passing yards (2,941) and touchdown passes (22).

Florida’s DJ Lagway has passed for just 1,980 yards, and he’s the only SEC quarterback with more interceptions (13) than touchdown passes (12). He threw five picks against LSU, three against Kentucky.

Aguilar has thrown the second-most interceptions among SEC quarterbacks (10).

Tennessee wins if Lagway has more turnovers than Aguilar.

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Skill Position Players

Tennessee has the best trio of receivers in the SEC.

Braylen Staley has 57 catches for 761 yards and six touchdowns. Chris Brazzell has 52 catches for 873 yards and eight touchdowns. Mike Matthews has 41 catches for 667 yards and four scores.

Florida’s leading receiver, freshman Vernell Brown, has 33 catches for 473 yards as the Gators average just 217 pass yards per game compared to UT’s 318.3.

At running back, UT’s DeSean Bishop, a former walk-on, has 770 yards, averages 6.5 yards per rush, and has 10 touchdowns. Star Thomas and Peyton Lewis have also been productive.

Florida’s Jaden Baugh is one of the SEC’s most talented backs. He has 808 yards and six touchdowns on 164 carries. He also has 31 catches for 175 yards. Florida’s next best rusher has 104 yards.

UT has the edge at the skill positions, especially considering that several of Florida’s 17 players list as out to questionable are receivers.

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Keys to the Game

We’ve already mentioned one: Aguilar must have fewer turnovers than Lagway.

Tennessee must get off to a fast start to silence the lambs and cast doubt among Gators players. UT has outscored opponents 145–45 in the first quarter. Florida has the first-quarter edge but it’s only 71–48.

Interestingly, Florida has been outscored in the second half 115–64.

Tennessee must also make at least five splash plays, limit critical penalties, and respond when Florida gains momentum. And don’t give up a 63-yard touchdown pass in the final minute.

That’s a recipe for success for Tennessee.

But can the Vols pull it off?

Vegas says yes.

But history says no.

Prediction: Florida 28–27