Who Will Be Its Leader and Shape the Next 80 Years?

Will Generation Z Be the Generation of the 4th Turning?

Photo by S O C I A L . C U T on Unsplash

A recent report discusses how Generation Z is bringing the past back into fashion. Although this trend is not new, what caught my attention was the connection with a theory that explains the repetition of certain historical patterns, especially regarding the evolution of generations.

The cyclical history theory suggests that each generation seeks to differentiate itself from the previous one, creating a new identity by rejecting the values and behaviors of their parents.

However, this quest for differentiation paradoxically brings them closer to previous generations, like their grandparents. This cycle of change and repetition seems to be in progress today, and Generation Z is not immune to this phenomenon.

The idea that history repeats itself, that there is a kind of generational cycle, dates back to the concept of “cyclicity” advocated by many scholars and philosophers. This theory applies to many aspects of human life, including fashion, music, and behavior, as we observe in the behavior of today’s youth, who look to the past, reviving aesthetics, music, and products that their parents once rejected. The search for differentiation is the engine behind this trend, but it ends up creating a circularity where each generation ends up returning to its own predecessors.

This phenomenon can be better understood through the lens of the Fourth Turning Theory, proposed by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe, known for their studies on generations. According to this theory, generations follow a cyclical pattern, and every 80 years, there is a major turning or revolution, usually associated with significant historical events, such as wars or deep social changes.

This cycle generates four types of generations, each with its role in the great transformation that occurs with each turning.

The fourth turning theory suggests that every 80 years, the United States experiences a major crisis, which produces a traumatized generation. This generation, having lived through difficult times, will produce new leadership that will define the next 80 years. This generation is called the “silent generation,” composed of people who lived through times of great suffering, such as the veterans of World War II. This generation tends to be very hardworking and values the collective.

After the silent generation comes a generation that builds the world’s peace, known as the “spring generation.” This is the baby boomer generation, which grows up in a time of prosperity and peace, but is more entrepreneurial and individualistic, though still maintaining a strong sense of collectivity.

The cycle continues with Generation X, also known as the “summer generation,” which represents a stronger individualism, with a mindset focused on personal achievement.

Strauss and Howe’s theory suggests that each of these generations has its role in a cyclical process of building and destruction. With each turning, society undergoes a major transformation, and new leaders emerge to guide the future. What is interesting about the theory is that it predicts a new crisis around 2020, which indeed seems to have materialized with the pandemic and its social and economic consequences.

This theory can also be applied to the current scenario, where we see a growing search for the construction of a new identity by Generation Z.

They distance themselves from many of the values that marked the previous generation but at the same time adopt many of the values of past generations, creating an interesting paradox. This generational cycle is not an isolated event but part of a broader process that reflects the social, political, and economic transformations affecting the world.

It is interesting to observe how history, in its repetition, creates new forms of evolution while also regressing at the same time. Although the fourth turning theory was proposed to describe the behavior of generations in the United States, it applies interestingly to the global context, reflecting the transformations we are witnessing in various parts of the world. What we can learn from this is that generations are always in motion, but there are patterns that repeat themselves and shape society in ways we often don’t realize.