Co-efficient Corner: For fog’s sake…

Better late than never! After fog delayed Lech Poznań’s arrival in the Faroe Islands, their game against KÍ Klaksvík was pushed back to tonight… Meanwhile, PSG and Aston Villa played their first UEFA Club match of the season in the Super Cup, but other than noting PSG’s win, that has no impact on the seedings, rankings or Access List.

As always, we’ll start with the impact of the ties that were completed this week on the Club Co-efficients. Everyone still in the Europa or Conference League has a minimum of 2.500 points: Teams knocked out of the Conference League Play-offs (whether they advance from the Conference League Third Qualifying Round, drop down from the Europa League or play their first game next week) finish the season with that amount. It’s also the minimum number of points a team can win in the League Stage of the Conference League, and with anyone who won their Europa League ties now guaranteed at least that, that’s where they stand too. The difference is that match points will kick in on the Club Co-efficient at that stage once a team picks up more than 2.500 of them (so a win and a draw, or three draws).

Now, let’s run through the results.

Scotland: Kings of the Conference League?

Last week saw contrasting fortunes for Scottish clubs across UEFA’s second and third competitions. Tonight, Rangers hosted Jagiellonia Białystok needing to turn around a 2–1 loss in Poland last Thursday: a 1–1 draw wasn’t enough, and they now face Jablonec in the Conference League. Heart of Midlothian hosted Benfica after being on the wrong end of a 6–1 thumping in Lisbon last week: a 1–1 draw salvaged a little pride but otherwise could do little to avoid confirming a Conference League Play-off against Rapid Vienna.

In the Conference League, Hibernian held Shkëndija Tetovo to a 0–0 draw to progress to the Play-offs on aggregate where they’ll face AA Gent. Motherwell, meanwhile, beat HJK Helsinki 2–0 at Fir Park, setting up a Play-off against last season’s Europa League finalists Freiburg.

These results — one win and three draws — added 0.500 points to the Scottish Co-efficient.

A rough night for the Republic of Ireland

Shamrock Rovers visited Albania’s Egnatia Rrogozhinë, needing to defend a 3–1 lead, only to succumb to a 5–1 defeat, for an aggregate 6–4 loss. They drop down into the Conference League, where they’ll face KuPS Kuopio.

In the Conference League, Bohemians travelled to Denmark’s Midtjylland, where a 3–2 loss saw them bow out of the competition. Shelbourne hosted Ajax having lost 3–1 in Amsterdam: they salvaged a 2–2 draw but still exit European football for the season.

Still, that draw added 0.125 points to Ireland’s Co-efficient.

The upset tracker

Let’s finish what we started on Tuesday.

The Europa League has been uncommonly predictable up to now with just two upsets in the previous round, but the competition more than made up for it this time around. Proceedings started with an upset in the form of Iberia’s win over Larne on Tuesday night, and Universitatea Craiova’s win over KuPS was an upset in co-efficient terms. Strictly speaking, Thun’s win over Víkingur Reykjavík was a shock as well, as was Egnatia’s win over Shamrock Rovers.

In the Main Path, CSKA Sofia holding on to beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv on aggregate was an upset too, as was Jagiellonia’s aggregate win over Rangers and Anderlecht’s win over PAOK.

That puts the total number of upsets in this Europa League Qualifying Round at 7 out of 12 ties. That 54% upset rate is more than double last year’s 23% for the Third Qualifying Round, but the rate in the competition to date now stands at 32%, slightly down from 34% this time last season.

The Conference League started off chaotic but calmed down in the Second Qualifying Round. This week, the first upset was on Wednesday when Hapoel Tel-Aviv secured an aggregate win over GKS Katowice.

On Thursday, Jablonec sealed their win over Rigas FS, and Tromsø confirmed their drubbing of CFR Cluj. Inter Turku sealed their progress against Liechtenstein’s sole representatives, Vaduz, while St. Gallen battered Sheriff Tiraspol.

Hibs’ win over Shkëndija was a co-efficient shock as well, as was Sion’s win over Noah, and Motherwell’s win over HJK Helsinki. Hajduk Split’s thrashing of Žalgiris Vilnius also classed as an upset, as was Dinamo City’s victory over Auda.

In the Champions’ Path, Flora’s defeat to Inter Escaldes was a shock.

That made for a total of 11 upsets for a rate of 37%, the same as last season. Overall, we stand at 33%, marginally up from last season’s 32%.

Across the three Men’s Competitions this round, the total upset rate was 42%, up from last year’s 32%, while across all three rounds it’s now 36%, compared with 31% in 2025.

The state of the nations

In total, there were 10 countries facing full elimination this week, with a maximum of seven who could drop out altogether. In the event, only five countries lost their last teams: Belarus, Estonia, Liechtenstein, Moldova and North Macedonia.

There were also three countries who lost teams for the first time: Finland, Israel and Poland.

The updated Play-off draws

Having sealed the Champions League Play-offs on Tuesday, tonight finalised the draws for the Europa and Conference League Play-offs. Here’s how the Europa League looks.

As for the Conference League, here are the remaining Champions’ Path ties.

And finally, the Main Path.

Next week

The last of the Men’s Qualifying draws has now been done, and the three League Stage draws won’t be done until the Play-offs are completed in two weeks’ time. So I’ll be back next Thursday (weather permitting, apparently) to touch base on the state of things after the Play-off First Leg. Brighton and Hove Albion kick off English engagement; Celtic join the fray from Scotland along with four other teams continuing their journey in the Conference League; only Shamrock Rovers survive from the Republic of Ireland and Larne continue to fly the flag for Northern Ireland.