What happened to the Bull Run, and why am I drinking Folgers Classic Roast?

Disclaimer: The following analogies are creative commentary on market psychology. They draw on reported data and trends, but should not be taken as financial advice.

Prelude to the kiss that never came

The latest 24-25 crypto bull run started like a blockbuster movie. Bitcoin smashed through $100,000, Captain America was back with a brand-new, freshly donned outfit, and regulators in the U.S.A. finally opened the gates for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, unlocking billions in institutional capital. April 2024’s halving cut Bitcoin’s supply, creating even more scarcity, and an unexpected (well, not according to the bookies and lots outside of the U.S.A) Trump victory brought hopes of a crypto‑friendly White House. By late 2024, the total crypto market cap had grown from around $1.94 trillion to over $3.28 trillion. The stage was set, people were getting their fav watches and cars mentally booked in, and life was sweet.

Investors (token degens, who am I kidding here), who remembered the 2017 and 2021 cycles, expected the usual script (like a German train, that’s always on time). Bitcoin would surge, then cool, and capital would ‘flow down the risk ladder’ into altcoins, unleashing another alt‑season. Social feeds buzzed with charts, timelines and promises that the next meme token would turn $100 into $60,000. The table was set for a three‑course feast. Captain America had one job: show up, look mighty, take a few hits from a much bigger bad guy than the last time, then, against all odds, kick arse in the paid-for and expected fashion.

When the main course ends without dessert

What happened instead felt like a banquet where the dessert never arrived. Bitcoin kept most of the attention. The altcoin season index, a gauge of how many alts are beating Bitcoin, only briefly touched the 75‑point ‘alt‑season’ threshold once in 2025. For the rest of the year, it languished, signalling that altcoins simply weren’t keeping up. Rallies that should have lasted a month or two shrank to an average of 20 days. Bitcoin behaved like the thrashing fish in the bucket, showing signs of life, right before it carves up.

Meanwhile, the altcoin ecosystem became an all‑you‑can‑eat buffet with 36 million tokens on offer and 50,000 new coins launching every day, thanks to our special friends over at pump.fun. When something becomes easy to do, and people make money from it, you get Onlyfans. With big money concentrating in Bitcoin and Ethereum via ETFs, there simply wasn’t enough appetite left to pump every plate. A veteran trader summed it up bluntly: “There’s not enough money to go around… there’s too much garbage”.

In this chapter, it was like Captain America rocked up, fought a mid-baddy on the way to the big boss fight and then just clocked off and hit the Fentanyl.

It was like this….

1. The missing cake at the party: Imagine attending a lavish wedding. The main course was worthy of us: steak, lobster, everything you could imagine. Guests whisper about the dessert table, and Aunt Sally swears the cake is legendary. Hours pass, stomachs rumble with anticipation, but instead of cake, the waiters start stacking chairs. That’s how many retail traders felt in 2025, they gorged on Bitcoin’s rally and waited for the alt‑coin dessert, only to be ushered to the exit when the DJ stopped playing. The alt‑season index sat deep in Bitcoin season, with only 37% of the top 50 alts outperforming BTC, far below the 75% needed for a confirmed alt‑season.

2. The kids’ table and the rich uncles: Remember family dinners where the adults occupy the main table, carving roast while the kids wait for scraps? ETFs turned institutions into those uncles. As spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, over $62 billion poured into regulated crypto vehicles. Institutions piled into BTC and ETH for long‑term ‘strategic reserves’ while ignoring the vast universe of altcoins. Retail investors waiting for leftovers soon realised there weren’t many, even when the altcoin index briefly spiked, the feast quickly ended.

3. Musical chairs with fewer chairs: I’ve always maintained that the market is like musical chairs: when the music stops, you need a seat. In this cycle, institutions brought their own chairs and bolted them to the floor. Retail traders danced around memecoin pumps, but when the music paused after a $19 billion liquidation cascade on Oct. 10, 2025, many found there was no seat left. About 85% of 2025 altcoins traded below their launch price by year‑end. Wealth shifted from impatient gamblers to patient institutions.

5. Blaming the weather for a burnt meal: After the no‑show dessert, people look for someone to blame. On Crypto Twitter, theories exploded: “ETFs ruined alt‑season,” “Memecoins sucked all the liquidity,” “Regulators killed the vibe.” These scapegoats mirror a chef blaming the rain for burning dinner, partly true, but also a way to avoid admitting overconfidence. I was one of the most confident people in that arena, too. The data tells a harsher story: altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) fell 32% from its October 2025 high and slipped below its 50‑week moving average. Bitcoin dominance stayed around 59%; the altcoin speculation index showed that only 21% of top alts outperformed BTC. In other words, broad alt‑season simply didn’t have the ingredients.

The emotional aftermath

When dessert never arrives, some guests go home hungry, and others go through Maccas drive-thru on the way home. In the market, many altcoin holders felt ‘bagholder’s remorse.’ They clung to the belief that if they just waited longer, a miracle pump would happen. Psychologists call this a denial phase. An analysis of investor behaviour found that retail traders who bought altcoins late in the cycle told themselves ‘the next pump will make it all back,’ even as objective signs turned bearish. Social media echo chambers amplified this hopium, while whales used the optimism to offload positions.

Meanwhile, professionals moved on. A Wintermute review noted that altcoin rallies dwindled from 45–60 days in prior years to about 20 days in 2025. Institutional flows into spot ETFs stayed concentrated, and big funds favoured only a handful of high‑utility projects. By early 2026, altcoins remained weak: only 11% of all altcoins were trading above their 50‑day moving average. The party moved on without most retail participants.

And we all know how most of them were propped up…

Takeaways and a hint of optimism

Markets are stories we tell ourselves. Each cycle, we expect history to repeat exactly; each time, the details differ. The 24‑25 bull run was driven by macro events, halving, ETFs, and regulatory shifts, that changed who controls the narrative. Alt‑season didn’t vanish because of a single villain; it faded because capital flows, token dilution, and changing market structure rewrote the script.

That doesn’t mean all altcoins are doomed. Select projects tied to real‑world assets, AI, or privacy have shown strength even in this environment. But broad, indiscriminate pumps are less likely when institutions hold the keys.

Sometimes the casino runs out of chips before your table gets a hand. Blaming the dealer won’t bring more chips, but understanding why it happened might stop you from sitting at the wrong table next time. It might stop me from having to drink Folgers Coffee, too.