MCLA D1 National Championship Game Preview.

#1 Chapman Panthers vs #2 Cal Poly Mustangs

1 vs #2. It couldn’t get any better than this. The Chapman Panthers see their championship game drought come to an end after two straight years of losing in the semifinals. This year has been a dream season for the Panthers as they hold an unblemished record and the #1 seed for the majority of the year.

Chapman has been tested throughout the season, overcoming deficits late in games multiple times. At this point, I think everyone knows about their five-goal fourth quarter comeback vs. GCU in the finals of the SLC tournament to win their first SLC crown since 2011. Along with an explosive offense, Chapman has held their own on the defensive end as well.

In both of the Panther’s overtime victories, the other team has had the first chance at scoring. BYU committed an unforced error that squandered their only offensive possession of overtime before Chapman scored. Colorado had a couple of chances at the goal before goalie Gus Gradinger (62.2 save %) made the stick side low save and followed it up with a successful clear.

According to masseyratings.com, Chapman holds the #3 offense in the country with 14.9 goals per game and the #5 defense, only letting in 6.2 goals per game (these stats are not including the national tournament). This combination of stingy defense and explosive offense has led them to be the favorites heading into Saturday.

On the other side of the field, Cal Poly (17–1) is coming off a huge win over defending champions GCU. While avenging their one loss of the season, the Mustangs proved that they could face a highly dangerous offense and hold them to single digits. While not having the most challenging schedule, that defense only gave up double digits once this year, in a triple-overtime loss to that same GCU team that they held to eight goals on Thursday.

Offensively, Cal Poly brings one of the youngest squads to hit the national championship field. While eight of their ten leading scorers are underclassmen, five of which are freshmen, it is quite impressive to see them put up double-digit goals in all but five of their games this season. Sophomore John Corbolotti (3.769 ppg), leads the Mustangs in points per game while also quarterbacking their offense from his position behind the goal.

While not including their national tournament results, masseyratings.com has the Mustangs as the thirteenth-ranked offense in the nation but the third-ranked defense. You have to know that this defense, led by goalie Sean Pihl (66.7 save percentage), will be ready come 2:30 on Saturday.

Keys for Cal Poly Victory:

While holding Dylan Garner (28 points in their last four games) to zero points on Thursday was impressive, Steve Koressel (5,0) and Wes Greason (3,0) put the team on their backs to lead the Panthers to the victory over Georgia Tech. For Cal Poly to pull out this victory, I look to junior goalie Sean Pihl to have his young defense firing on all cylinders to have a chance of pulling the upset.

The most important part of a Cal Poly victory will be time of possessions and face-offs. If sophomore Austin Lord can hover around his season average (69.3%) throughout the game, then those extra possessions will help lead the Mustangs to their first-ever national championship.

At this point in the season, youth is usually not an issue. Freshmen have had a whole season of experience and are no longer treated like freshmen. However, when you get into these high-stakes games, especially when they are away, freshmen can sometimes crumble under the pressure. From what I can tell, Cal Poly has two seniors that get significant playing time: Alex Erler at LSM and Daniel Wessel at defensive midfield. Other than that, their starting defense consists of sophomore Connor Veit, junior Gideon Baum, and freshman Lou Sugo, with freshman Graham Walker at LSM. On the offensive end, freshman AJ Guralas and sophomore Andrew Laron, along with the aforementioned sophomore John Corbolotti, make up the Mustangs’ starting attack. Sophomore Ben Berkow and freshman Patrick Schneider lead the charge through the midfield. Even at the X, Austin Lord is just a sophomore. When it comes time for that national championship, youth cannot play like youth. I look to the coaching staff and veterans of this Cal Poly team to guide their youth through what will definitely be a tough game.

Keys to Chapman Victory:

Big time players make big time plays in big time games. Luckily for Chapman, they have four of those types of players on offense. Four of their starters on offense average over 3.3 points per game. So while you have to have three starting poles that can defend dynamic scorers, Cal Poly’s LSM also has to find his matchup from the midfield to try to hinder whichever of the four they choose to bring out of the box. Here is where you will find the key to Chapman’s victory. Senior captain Connor Reilly has been hidden in the shadows all season but his work does not go unnoticed to the keen eye. Reilly’s fourteen goals and seven assists on the season don’t jump off the page at you, but he has one of the quickest first steps I have seen and is an absolute horse in between the boxes. Reilly is a true two-way midfielder who never stops running and you will see him going as hard in the last minutes of the fourth quarter as you did in the opening minutes of the first. Connor Reilly, #42, try and keep an eye on how much he does for this team and try and tell me that he isn’t an absolute workhorse.

Along with Connor Reilly, the Panthers also highlight another do-it-all midfielder: Simon Jenkin. #21 is probably a player you’ve heard of since he takes face-offs for the Panthers but Jenkin is also their sixth-leading scorer and is another two-way monster midfielder. There is a specific sequence in the Georgia Tech game where Jenkin is on defense, Gradinger makes a save and gives a quick outlet to Jenkin. Next thing you know, he is flying up the field at warp speed. This fast break leads to a goal and Chapman’s offense is rolling. Look for Jenkin to take most of the Panthers’ face-offs but also, look out when he is in transition because odds are it’s going to end up with a Chapman goal.

Prediction:

It’s Chapman’s year. They take it 12–9.