Denver Nuggets 2026 Offseason Primer— The State of the Roster

The 2025–26 season has come to an abrupt end for the Denver Nuggets and left the team with more questions than answers after losing in six games to the sixth seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. It marks the third consecutive season the Nuggets have failed to get out of the second round of the playoffs following their title in the 2022–23 season and is the first time the Nuggets have ever lost a first round series with stars Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray both healthy. The question for the Nuggets now is where to go from here, as it’s clear changes are needed if they hope to get back into the upper echelon of the Western Conference. In this piece, we’ll look at the state of the current roster, their existing contracts, and the likelihood they’ll be back with the Nuggets for the 2026–27 season. The focus here will be players who averaged at least 15 minutes per game and/or are making a salary above the league minimum, starting with the player who averaged the fewest minutes per game and working our way up.

Zeke Nnaji

Remaining Contract: 2 years/$14,933,334 (player option for 2027–28 season)

Nnaji’s 4 year, $32 million contract has been widely panned since it was signed prior to the 2024–25 season. He has never been a consistent member of the rotation during his 5-year tenure with the Nuggets, and the 2025–26 season was no different. The 25-year-old averaged just 11.9 minutes per game and continued to struggle to get on the floor and make an impact despite playing for a team that badly needed contributions from the power forward spot. He is on a descending contract with just two years remaining, which does make it a bit more palatable, but Nnaji’s contract is still a negative asset and the Nuggets would likely have to include him in a deal with a positive asset attached to get off his contract. I’d expect him to be back with the Nuggets for opening night of the 26–27 season, though there is a higher probability of him being moved now than there was previously.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 90%

Jonas Valančiūnas

Remaining Contract: 1 year/$10 million ($2 million fully guaranteed, full $10 million becomes fully guaranteed on 7/8/26)

Valančiūnas was a solid backup center to Jokić for much of the season, providing solid offense off the bench and helping the Nuggets to tread water in the non-Jokić better than years past (the Nuggets had a survivable -1.8 NET with Jonas ON and Nikola OFF). That said, he proved to be largely unplayable in a playoff environment, logging just six minutes per game in the series against the Wolves. He also flirted with leaving for Europe prior to the 2025–26 season and it appears likely that’s the route he will take for the 26–27 season.

Notably, Valančiūnas was traded to the Nuggets with his 26–27 salary fully non-guaranteed, meaning the Nuggets would owe him nothing as long as he was waived before June 24th. However, his contract was re-negotiated to guarantee him $2 million regardless while pushing the date his full $10 million salary becomes guaranteed back two weeks to July 8th. This makes sense for Jonas for obvious reasons ($2 million is more than $0), and it also makes sense for the Nuggets as it pushes his full guarantee back until after the new league year starts on July 1st. This allows them to use his salary for matching purposes in potential trades that would need to be completed after that time. Never say never, but it appears both sides are positioning themselves to move on.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 1%

Julian Strawther

Remaining Contract: 1 year/$4,826,931

Strawther enters the final year of his rookie deal coming off arguably the best season of his career. The 23-year-old averaged just over 15 minutes per game and had career best marks in key metrics like TS%, eFG%, and 3P% and, while still not a positive on that end, did improve his defense from what he had shown prior to this season. The 2026–27 season looks to be somewhat of a sink or swim season for Strawther, as he’s set to enter restricted free agency prior to the 2027–28 season, an environment that has tended to not produce desirable results for players who haven’t proven themselves to be quality rotation players at the minimum.

His future in Denver is likely a bit uncertain right now. A rebuilding team with the ability to give him more consistent minutes may be intrigued by the upside he’s shown, and his salary that’s a bit higher than the league minimum may end up being helpful to make the financials work in potential trades. I’d say he’s more likely to return than not, but a trade involving Strawther this offseason wouldn’t be a shock.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 65%

Jalen Pickett

Remaining Contract: 1 year/$2,406,205 (club option)

The third year guard saw the largest role of his career during the 2025–26 season, playing a career high 807 minutes across 50 games, primarily as a backup ball handler. He was exactly fine in that role, not doing anything that stood out to help the team but not hurting them either. The final year of his contract is a club option that has to be exercised by June 29th. Considering the option is for the league minimum, it would be a surprise if the Nuggets don’t pick it up.

While he was acceptable in his limited role last season, Pickett will probably garner minimal trade interest and his low salary is likely not going to be very useful for salary matching in potential trades. For these reasons, I expect it’s highly likely Pickett will be back with the Nuggets next season.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 90%

Spencer Jones

Remaining Contract: Free agent

Jones was a revelation for the Nuggets this season, starting the year on a two-way contract before playing his way into being a key rotation piece and having his contract converted to a standard NBA contract. Rather than signing him to a multi-year contract for slightly above the league minimum, the Nuggets opted to give Jones a minimum salary contract when it was converted, which means he will enter free agency this offseason. The Nuggets have until June 29th to extend a qualifying offer to Jones, which would make him a restricted free agent if he doesn’t sign.

I suspect the Nuggets have interest in bringing back Jones, but at the same time they could’ve avoided him entering free agency by offering a little more money up front and opted not to do that. If he’s available for another minimum contract, the Nuggets will likely bring him back, but if another team offers him more than that I’d expect him to play next season in a different uniform.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 75%

Bruce Brown

Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent

Bruce returned to Denver on a minimum contract this season after two years elsewhere. The hope was he could again be a key cog like he was during the Nuggets’ championship run in 2023, but it obviously didn’t pan out that way after their first round exit. Brown was the only Nugget to appear in every game this season, but his impact wasn’t the same as during his first stint in Denver. His -3.7 EPM was the worst of any player who averaged at least 20 minutes per game for a playoff team this season.

His subpar performance since leaving Denver the first time in 2023 means Brown will likely have a limited market in free agency this offseason and, if he gets an NBA contract at all, it will almost certainly be for the league minimum. The Nuggets may have some interest in bringing back a fan favorite who, if nothing else, has been reliably available for them at that price tag, but they also may prefer to just move on and try to find value elsewhere.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 50%

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent

Hardaway is another proven vet who was brought in on a minimum contract for the Nuggets this season to give their bench more scoring punch and proven depth, and he provided exactly what they were hoping for. Hardaway made 224 three pointers (10th most in the league) while shooting above 40% from beyond the three point line and proved to be a high quality floor spacer for the league’s highest rated and most efficient offense during the regular season. That said, players without flaws are typically not available for the league minimum, and Hardaway had his drawbacks as well. Aside from scoring the ball, he contributed very little. His rebound and assist numbers were poor and he rated as one of the league’s worst defensive players, especially when it came to generating turnovers, something the Nuggets did worse than any other defense in the NBA.

It would seem that Hardaway will likely find a new home next season. He may have played himself into a bigger contract thanks to his shooting display this season, and after coming in just 21st in adjusted defensive rating, the Nuggets will probably be focusing on more defensive minded players this offseason. I do not expect him to return.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 5%

Aaron Gordon

Remaining Contract: 3 years/$103,608,840 (player option for 2028–29 season)

The future of Aaron Gordon is likely to be one of the biggest stories of the offseason for the Nuggets. The 30-year-old has a 3-year, $104 million contract kicking in next season and remains, at worst, the third most important player for the Nuggets. He fits the team like a glove and is vital to what they want to do on both ends of the floor. However, he was hampered by injuries and played just 36 games this regular season and only three of six postseason games (though he was only truly healthy for one) after also being limited to only 51 games during the 2024–25 season. Gordon’s inability to stay on the court has unfortunately led to speculation about him being traded.

Gordon (AKA Mr. Nugget) is a beloved figure in Denver, so his fit and popularity will make it so he is only traded in the case of it being a clear upgrade for the Nuggets. Surveying the league, there don’t appear to be many realistic scenarios where that happens. So, while I do expect the front office to explore trade scenarios, I ultimately expect Gordon to return next season.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 85%

Peyton Watson

Remaining Contract: Restricted Free Agent

Another big decision for the Nuggets this offseason will be what to do with Peyton Watson. The 23-year-old is coming off his best season and is set to enter restricted free agency after he and the Nuggets failed to come to an agreement on a contract extension. Denver holds Watson’s Bird rights, meaning they can legally offer or match any contract they want, but realistically they will only be able to retain him by cutting salary elsewhere. It’s a difficult situation for the Nuggets. Watson has a lot of athleticism and physical tools the Nuggets need, but he will likely receive contract offers north of $20M AAV and even this season (his best) impact metrics pretty uniformly believe he was just okay, plus he missed 28 regular season games and the entirety of the postseason due to injuries.

It has been reported that retaining Watson is a top priority for the Nuggets, though that may not be possible or the most intelligent use of their resources. There’s a lot of moving pieces here (what trades are available to the Nuggets to clear salary, what contract offers Watson gets from other teams, etc.) and it makes it very hard to predict what’s going to ultimately happen with him. I’d say he’s more likely than not to return, but only slightly.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 55%

Cam Johnson

Remaining Contract: 1 year/$23,062,500

The likely other half of the Watson equation is Cam Johnson. Acquired by the Nuggets via trade last offseason, he appears to be the most likely candidate to be traded away by the Nuggets this offseason to clear space for Watson’s new contract. Johnson had a bit of an up-and-down season for the Nuggets that included a very slow start in which he was trying to find his role and 28 games missed to injury, but he also had some very strong moments including a very strong performance in the postseason against Minnesota. He is who I and most impact metrics would agree was the Nuggets’ best player after the big 3 of Jokić, Murray, and Gordon.

Despite that, being a good player with just one year left on his contract at a reasonable salary makes him the most convenient player for the Nuggets to move if they want or need to shed salary. It’s not a certainty, but he appears to be the Nuggets’ starter least likely to be back next season.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 40%

Christian Braun

Remaining Contract: 5 years/$125,000,000

The best season of Braun’s career in 2024–25 led to him signing a 5 year, $125 million contract that’s due to start next season. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to follow up that strong performance in the 2025–26 season. He missed 38 games in the regular season with an ankle injury, and even when he was on the floor he wasn’t as effective as he needed to be. He regressed from shooting 39.6% beyond the three point line in 24–25 to just 30.1% in 25–26 and he regressed defensively as well. Some of this is likely due to his injury, so it remains to be seen whether the real version of Braun is closer to what we saw in 24–25 or 25–26. However, even at his best, a player of his archetype as a starting shooting guard can be rather limiting in terms of roster building.

Braun has a Poison Pill restriction on his contract until the start of the new league year on July 1. This doesn’t make it officially impossible to trade him prior to that date, but for all practical purposes it does. After that point, trading him becomes easier, but his contract is viewed as a negative asset right now so the Nuggets would likely have to get creative in order to move him. The team will reportedly explore all options short of trading Jokić, but finding a place to send Braun will require some real creativity. For that reason, I expect him to be back next season.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 85%

Nikola Jokić

Remaining Contract: 2 years/$121,874,816 (player option for 2027–28)

Jokić continues to be the center of everything the Nuggets do, said repeatedly that he wants to be a Nugget forever after the final game of the season, and is expected to sign a 4 year/$278M supermax contract extension this offseason. He isn’t going anywhere.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 100%

Jamal Murray

Remaining Contract: 3 years/$161,451,468

Murray is coming off the best season of his career. He played in 75 games, the only Nuggets starter to not miss significant time to injury, was named an All-Star for the first time of his career, and will likely make the first All-NBA team of his career this season as well (likely 2nd team). Simply put, Murray is one of the best offensive guards in the league. The only guards who were clearly better than him on that end this season were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Dončić. That makes Murray a very appealing player to both the Nuggets and likely several other teams who are looking for a lead guard to supercharge their offense.

Prior to this offseason, the idea of Murray being traded was borderline unthinkable, but now it’s a very real possibility. As incredible as he is offensively, he struggled on defense, an area the Nuggets desperately need to improve. He’s also probably the player on the roster who holds the most trade value (outside of Jokić, of course). If the Nuggets want to give their roster a serious makeover, they will likely have to trade Murray to facilitate that. That said, trading away a franchise icon is never easy, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if that kind of move is just too difficult for the Nuggets to stomach and/or if they’re unable to find a trade involving Murray that sufficiently addresses their needs to the point it makes sense to move him.

Likelihood of returning to the Nuggets: 80%