U.S. Political Violence and Civil Unrest Peaking this Decade

Without Shutting Down the “Wealth Pump,” the U.S. Risks Falling into an “Inertial Scenario” of Recurring 50-Year Cycles of Internal War

History tells us, that from the moment when the moral forces on which a civilisation rested have lost their strength, its final dissolution is brought about by those unconscious and brutal crowds known, justifiably enough, as barbarians. Civilisations as yet have only been created and directed by a small intellectual aristocracy, never by crowds. Crowds are only powerful for destruction. […] A civilisation involves fixed rules, discipline, a passing from the instinctive to the rational state, forethought for the future, an elevated degree of culture […].

When the structure of a civilisation is rotten, it is always the masses that bring about its downfall.

from Gustave Le Bon’s The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind (1895).

The American executive project, particularly the strategies proposed for a second Donald Trump administration and outlined in Project 2025, is frequently characterized as a domestic application of the governance model pioneered by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Both models are defined by the concept of “autocratic legalism,” where a democratically elected leader uses legal and constitutional mandates to dismantle the systems of checks and balances they inherited.

Institutional “Hardware”: Capturing the State

The core of both projects involves a systematic effort to ensure the government serves the leader’s will through the politicization of independent institutions.

Bureaucratic Purges

Orbán’s 2010 Civil Service Act allowed the dismissal of approximately 1,600 experienced professionals to install party loyalists.

Trump’s reinstatement of “Schedule F” in 2026 aims to reclassify up to 50,000 federal employees as at-will workers, effectively replacing non-partisan expertise with personal loyalty.

Disciplining the Judiciary

While Orbán used a constitutional supermajority to pack the Hungarian Constitutional Court and cut its jurisdiction, the American project focuses on delegitimizing and circumventing judicial authority.

This includes the outright defiance of court orders and the public smearing of individual judges to erode the judiciary’s standing as a watchdog.

Media and Cultural Control

Orbán consolidated the Hungarian media through a mix of market pressure and loyal billionaires, a strategy mirrored by the American project’s reliance on friendly tycoons and the use of the FCC to investigate perceived ideological opponents.

“Software” of Governance: Narratives of Retribution

Both models rely on a populist “software” of discourse to enlist the consent of the ruled while targeting dissenters.

Defining the “Enemy Within”

Orbán and Trump both use dehumanizing rhetoric, labeling opponents as “vermin,” “enemies of the people,” or “dangerous aliens”.

Attacking Academic Freedom

Like Orbán’s campaign to force the Central European University out of Hungary, the second Trump administration has used funding freezes and regulatory investigations to coerce elite American universities into ideological alignment.

Retribution Strategy

Both regimes transition from “hardball” politics into a state of formalized retribution, using government agencies to “name and shame” critics or open investigations into law firms and civic organizations that have challenged their authority.

Comparative Differences: Rapidity and Resilience

Despite these similarities, scholars note distinctive features of the U.S. context.

Blistering Pace

Trump’s aggrandizement project is described as moving at an unusually condensed timeline.

While Orbán’s consolidation took several years to accelerate, the Trump administration moved to defy judicial mandates and purge accountability institutions within its first weeks.

Institutionalization

U.S. democratic erosion remains less institutionalized than Hungary’s.

Because the U.S. Constitution is notoriously difficult to change, Trump has relied on executive orders and emergency powers to bypass Congress, rather than the deep-rooted constitutional rewriting Orbán utilized.

Federalist Resistance

Unlike the highly centralized Hungarian state, the U.S. has a decentralized system where state attorneys general and sanctuary cities serve as active centers of resistance.

While Orbán’s model serves as a “roadmap,” the American project is constrained by a more robust political system, leading the administration to focus on subverting and delegitimizing institutions it cannot yet fully co-opt.

The unitary executive theory is an interpretation of the U.S. Constitution which argues that the president possesses total control over the entire executive branch.

This theory asserts that because the “executive Power” is vested in a single person, the president should have the absolute authority to direct all executive officials and agencies without interference from Congress or independent commissions.

The implementation of this theory involves several key actions and consequences.

Subordinating Independent Agencies

The theory is used to justify bringing traditionally independent agencies, such as the Federal Reserve or the Federal Communications Commission, under direct White House oversight.

Eliminating Internal Oversight

Adherents of this theory often seek to remove internal checks by firing inspectors general, ethics officials, and other “watchdogs” to consolidate presidential authority.

Politicizing the Civil Service

A central tactic associated with the theory is the reclassification of career civil servants.

For example, the 2026 reinstatement of “Schedule F” aims to turn approximately 50,000 non-partisan federal employees into “at-will” workers who can be fired for failing to follow the president’s personal directives.

Executive Aggrandizement

Within the common model of democratic backsliding, the pursuit of a “unitary executive” is categorized as “executive aggrandizement,” a process where an elected leader incrementally amasses power by dismantling internal and horizontal checks.

While a general trend toward increased presidential power has grown across successive administrations, the current application of this theory is an extreme form intended to sweep out the “administrative state” and replace non-partisan expertise with personal loyalty.

This shift is a core component of the Project 2025 agenda, which seeks to ensure that the executive bureaucracy functions as a direct vehicle for the president’s will.

The political project of the second Trump administration is characterized by executive aggrandizement occurring at three interrelated levels, which together aim to dismantle democratic constraints and centralize power in the presidency.

1. Establishing Presidential Supremacy Within the Executive Branch

At this level, the administration seeks to transform the executive branch into a direct vehicle for the president’s personal will by eliminating the political independence of its various agencies.

Unitary Executive Theory

The administration relies on an extreme form of this theory, which asserts the president has absolute authority over all executive officials and agencies, including traditionally independent commissions.

Purging and Politicization

Tactics include firing non-partisan “watchdogs” like inspectors general, and the reinstatement of “Schedule F,” which reclassifies up to 50,000 career civil servants as “at-will” employees who can be terminated for failing to follow personal presidential directives.

Workforce Depletion

By early 2026, mass layoffs and forced retirements, partially driven by initiatives like the Department of Government Efficiency, resulted in nearly 220,000 fewer federal employees.

2. Making the Executive Branch Dominant Over Other Parts of Government

This level involves the executive forcefully asserting dominance over the judiciary, Congress, and state governments to circumvent traditional checks and balances.

Defiance of the Judiciary

The administration has been accused of outright defiance of court orders in cases involving immigration and federal funding, while publicly smearing individual judges as illegitimate to erode public trust in the courts.

Usurpation of the “Power of the Purse”

Trump has bypassed the Impoundment Control Act to unilaterally withhold or reallocate funds appropriated by Congress, such as freezing climate programs or diverting funds to border militarization.

Subordinating the States

The federal government has pressured state actors by withholding funding for “sanctuary cities” and, in some cases, sidestepping state authority entirely by deploying the military domestically against the wishes of governors.

3. Weakening Societal Constraints on Executive Power

The final level focuses on neutralizing external opposition from civil society and undermining vertical accountability through the electoral process.

Media and Legal Intimidation

The president has adopted an unprecedented strategy of suing and investigating major media organizations (e.g., the Wall Street Journal) and individual journalists to chill dissent.

Similarly, executive orders have been used to punish private law firms that challenged the administration’s policies.

Targeting Academic Freedom

Borrowing from Viktor Orbán’s playbook, the administration has used funding freezes and regulatory investigations to coerce elite universities like Harvard into ideological alignment.

Undermining Elections

Trump’s team continues to delegitimize the 2020 election results, has pardoned those involved in the January 6 insurrection, and has exerted executive control over state-run elections by mandating specific voter roll purges.

Distinctive Features of this Aggrandizement

Scholars note that while this project mirrors the “autocratic legalism” of leaders like Viktor Orbán and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the U.S. case is distinct for its blistering pace.

While other leaders often eroded democracy piece-by-piece over years, the Trump administration has moved to weaken constraints across all three levels simultaneously and with high momentum.

Because the U.S. Constitution is difficult to amend, the administration focuses on delegitimizing and circumventing horizontal institutions rather than pursuing the formal institutionalized changes common in other backsliding regimes.

The second Trump administration is characterized by the sources as a “disrupter” and a symptom of a society at the peak of a disintegrative phase within a secular cycle.

Structural-Demographic Theory suggests that the United States is currently navigating the most volatile stage of its history since the Civil War.

Structural-Demographic Theory Stages

The U.S. has passed through several Structural-Demographic Theory stages into its current crisis.

The Growth Phase (1945–1970)

Known as the “Second Era of Good Feelings,” this period saw high social cooperation, rising real wages, and a “Great Compression” of inequality.

The Stagflation Phase (1970s–Present)

A “wealth pump” began transferring gains from the working class to elites. Real wages for the non-college-educated (the “immiserated” class) stagnated or declined, resulting in “deaths of despair” and a collapse of social trust.

The Elite Overproduction Phase (1990s–Present)

The ballooning wealth of the top 1% created a massive surplus of “elite aspirants” competing for a fixed number of power positions.

This led to a “Game of Aspirant Chairs,” where intense competition fractured the ruling class into antagonistic factions.

The State Stress Phase

This is characterized by exploding public debt and a “Nero moment” of institutional fragility where the federal government becomes too complex and diffuse to function effectively.

Trump is viewed not as the cause of these trends, but as a political entrepreneur who harnessed the mass mobilization potential of the “immiserated” class to challenge the established “technocracy”.

What Comes Next: Internal to the U.S. (The 2020s–2040s)

The forecast is for a “clashing of cycles” in the 2020s, where an institutional crisis (the end of the 80-year cycle from WWII) and a socioeconomic crisis (the end of the 50-year Reagan cycle) converge.

The “Turbulent 2020s”

The Political Stress Indicator predicts an explosion of political violence and civil unrest peaking in this decade.

Without shutting down the “wealth pump,” the U.S. risks falling into an “inertial scenario” of recurring 50-year cycles of internal war.

Institutional Reinvention (2025–2030)

The federal government will likely move away from a “diffuse technocracy” toward a model of “commander’s intent,” emphasizing decentralized initiative and common-sense judgment over rigid expert-led regulation.

The “Millennial Jackpot” (2030s–2040s)

By 2040, the large Millennial generation will age into their peak taxpaying and investing years, potentially making the U.S. financial system “flush with cash once again”.

Re-industrialization

Driven by low-cost shale energy and shorter supply chains, the U.S. is predicted to undergo a domestic manufacturing boom, deepening its economic integration with Mexico.

What Comes Next: Global (The Age of Disorder)

Globally, the sources anticipate a transition from “Order to Disorder” as the U.S. withdraws its sponsorship of global free trade.

The End of Globalization

As the U.S. turns inward, the “Bretton Woods” system will shatter.

International shipping will become cumbersome and dangerous, leading to “decivilization” in regions that cannot self-secure food and energy.

Demographic Collapse of Rivals

Competitors like China, Russia, and Germany face “terminal demographics”, mass retirement with no replacement generation, leading to the likely collapse of their governing systems by the 2030s.

China, specifically, may face de-urbanization and famine on a “biblical scale” due to its dependence on imports.

Rise of Regional Hegemons

In the power vacuum, aggressive regional powers like Japan, Turkey, and Poland will attempt to sculpt their neighborhoods, leading to new alliance structures and potentially global war by mid-century.

The “American Age”

Due to its geography, energy independence, and relatively younger population, the U.S. is expected to emerge as the only capital-rich, growing economy in a world that has otherwise become a “broken wasteland”.

The impact of the current global shift on Palestine, Israel, and Western Asia is defined by the withdrawal of the United States’ security umbrella, the rise of regional hegemons, and acute structural vulnerabilities in food and water security.

As the U.S. transitions into a stance of strategic disinterest fueled by energy independence, the “geopolitical force field” that stabilized the region since 1945 is evaporating, leading to what the sources describe as a “general melee”.

Israel and Palestine: A Historic Crossroads

Israel is currently facing an internal and external “existential crossroads”.

Internal Democratic Backsliding

Israel is experiencing “democratic convulsions” mirrored by the rise of populist majoritarianism.

The 2023 judicial reform attempt is characterized as “autocratic legalism,” an effort to grant unchecked power to the executive while bypassing minority protections, leading to the largest grassroots protest movement in the nation’s history.

Palestinian Asabiya

From a structural perspective, the Palestinian identity has been forged by over a century of pressure on a meta-ethnic frontier.

This intense competition has resulted in high asabiya (collective solidarity), manifesting in a willingness to engage in high-risk resistance.

Geopolitical Realignment

In a post-Order world, the sources suggest a potential strategic pax between Turkey and Israel to manage the Eastern Mediterranean, as both nations seek to secure local energy and trade flows in the absence of U.S. naval guarantees.

The Rise of Regional Hegemons: Turkey and Iran

With the U.S. no longer acting as the “global guarantor,” Western Asia is expected to organize around two indigenous poles of power.

Turkey’s Expansion

Turkey is identified as a “rising star” and an “aggressive power”.

It is poised to reassert its historical role as the center of gravity in the Islamic world, expanding its influence into the Balkans, the Caucasus, and Mesopotamia.

Turkey is likely to seize control of the Turkish Straits and utilize its agricultural surplus as “caloric diplomacy” to coerce neighboring states.

Iran’s Regional Melee

Iran, a “mountain country” with a million-man army, is being released from its strategic logjam.

While vulnerable to U.S. naval strikes at its primary port (Bandar Abbas), Iran remains a nightmare for local rivals.

It is predicted to engage in a four-way competition with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S.-allied Polish bloc.

Structural Vulnerabilities: The “Seneca Cliff” of Survival

The most dire impact on Western Asia involves the fundamental requirements for life.

The Food-Energy Trap

Most Western Asian countries produce energy but risk famine, as not a single nation in the region (except potentially Turkey) is self-sufficient in foodstuffs.

Fertilizer and potash shortages, driven by the collapse of trade with Russia and Belarus, will hit the region’s already marginal lands with devastating force.

Water Scarcity and “Decivilization”

The diversion of river systems and the melting of the Himalayan and Central Asian snowpacks threaten to turn former agricultural hubs into hard deserts.

Without the technology to manage this desiccation, nations like Egypt and Pakistan face the risk of “decivilization”, a cascade of breakdowns leading to population “corrections” on a biblical scale.

The Collapse of Saudi Loyalty

Saudi Arabia is uniquely vulnerable; it possesses a seizable oil complex but lacks an indigenous workforce and a meaningful military.

As the U.S. lifts its “no-questions-asked protection,” the Saudi government may face internal collapse as its ability to purchase citizen loyalty with oil wealth vanishes.

While the U.S. may “sit out” the coming chaos, Western Asia faces a painful transition marked by state failure for weaker actors (Syria, Yemen, Lebanon) and a brutal struggle for resources and dominance among the remaining regional powers.