Trail 228 — Concrete over Abstract

Markets Update by Aashish Singh Business Update by Sylvia Lo

Financial markets are fascinating. They are constantly evolving, they follow no predetermined path and much like humans, their behaviour at times is completely irrational. Every day their movements are thoroughly analysed, yet their next steps are a complete mystery. They follow a random walk and therein lies their beauty. Each week I briefly recap a few stories that captured my interest.

The week started with a hangover of the Warsh appointment as Fed chair, weighing in on risk sentiment as it reignited the debate over Fed’s balance sheet and its role in markets. An initial proponent of the Fed’s QE program during his tenure at the central bank, Warsh became an increasingly vocal critic of the practice and ultimately resigned over the central bank’s continued purchases. The debate now has shifted from short-term rate cuts to the Fed’s balance sheet wind down which will push up longer-term rates. Then came the trigger that led to the broad sell off in the equity markets. Similar to the DeepSeek sell off last year, this time it was Anthropic - a well-funded AI firm which released tools designed to automate legal and financial work — with direct implications for revenue models across software companies, financial services and asset management sectors.

Bitcoin also joined in the sell off, having a wild week. After having broken below the $80k support band, to trade as low as ~$60k before recovering to stabilise around ~$70k. The rout which erased half of Bitcoin’s value since it reached a record four months ago, signals that we are firmly back in Crypto Winter.

The headline risk sentiment recovered by Friday and major stock indexes bounced back sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above $50k for the first time. Precious metal prices saw continued volatility with silver futures closing $77 an ounce, well off their high of about $122 on Jan 29. Gold futures, which had surged to roughly $5,625 an ounce closed just under $5k. Brent closed under $70 a barrel. The DXY was up slightly at 97.6, continuing its recovery post the Warsh appointment.

From an outlook perspective, for all the volatility in Precious Metals, their longer term uptrend is intact. China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 15 months adding 40k troy ounces last month. Shorter term, Chinese New Year fuelled retail demand should keep prices supported or slightly elevated. In equities, while headline index suggests flattish performance, where rotation into value stocks will continue amidst the lose-lose scenario (AI is a bubble or AI will eat jobs) in growth stocks. A general theme as investors shun the abstract and look for concrete value across asset classes.

Value Signal

The three-month slump in US technology stocks has left long-downtrodden value stocks looking relatively strong. There’s growing consensus on Wall Street the shift is just getting started.

The Russell 1000 Value Index (RLV) has advanced 8.6% from early November to Tuesday, beating its growth counterpart by 14 percentage points. Prior periods of such outperformance have led to further gains for value versus growth. But there is a dark lining: The last two times the value index outperformed its growth counterpart by this much during a similar time span was during a bear market rout in 2022 and the early days of a dot-com bust in 2001.

Crypto Winter

On Friday, the original digital currency surged the most in almost three years to recoup almost all of the losses registered during Thursday’s crypto market meltdown that had dragged the token down more than 50% from its October peak. The dizzying swings of around 13% have helped to reignite a jump in the volatility that traders traditionally relish because of the potential profit opportunities.

Tech Credit Spreads Widen

The biggest tech companies are gearing up to spend even more on artificial intelligence than investors had anticipated, and money managers increasingly fear that whatever happens, credit markets will get hit.

Microsoft Corp., Oracle Corp. and other “hyperscalers” are in an arms race to invest in AI and beat competitors in a technology that could change vast parts of the economy. Google parent Alphabet Inc. said it’s poised to spend as much as $185 billion on data centres this year, more than it has invested in the past three years combined. Amazon.com Inc. promised an even bigger outlay: $200 billion.

In the World of Business

This week, Gen Z creators frustrated with TikTok’s new U.S. ownership are flocking to UpScrolled, a fast‑growing alternative founded by an Oracle alum.

Disney CEO Bob Iger says he will finally step down in March 2026, naming parks chief Josh D’Amaro as his successor.

Moltbook, a fast‑growing social platform built for AI agents, is sparking equal parts fascination and alarm as it exposes new opportunities — and new risks — in autonomous AI behaviour.

UpScrolled: Gen Z’s Revolt Against TikTok USA

UpScrolled’s sudden rise is rooted in an identity shift that hit TikTok at the start of 2026, when its U.S. business was spun into a joint venture heavily overseen by Oracle. Many Gen Z creators interpreted the deal — long framed in Washington as a national‑security win — as a takeover that risked censorship, political influence, and loss of cultural authenticity. Their frustrations intensified when TikTok’s algorithm malfunctioned after the handover, flooding feeds with irrelevant “slop,” and sending users searching for an alternative. UpScrolled, created by former Oracle engineer Issam Hijazi, was perfectly positioned: originally a quiet 2025 launch, it exploded from roughly 150,000 users to over 2.5 million as creators began downloading it in protest.

The app blends the visual appeal of Instagram with the conversational tone of X, but its real differentiator is its promise of transparent moderation, fewer algorithmic distortions, and no shadow‑banning. As TikTok adapts to its new ownership and oversight model, UpScrolled’s surge underscores an important commercial lesson: in the attention economy, trust and cultural alignment are as pivotal as scale and technology.

Bob Iger’s Long Goodbye

Disney’s announcement that Bob Iger will step down as CEO on March 18, 2026, handing the role to parks chief Josh D’Amaro, marks what appears to be the end of a long and winding succession saga. While the timing matches the contract extension granted after Iger’s 2023 return, the inclusion of a newly created “senior advisor” position — set to last until his retirement at the end of 2026 — introduces ambiguity. The company’s last leadership transition ended with Iger, still effectively overseeing Disney as new CEO Bob Chapek struggled through pandemic‑driven revenue collapse, stock declines, and internal tensions — all culminating in Iger’s reinstatement as CEO in 2023. In contrast, the current succession process, led by board chair and former Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, signals an effort to deliver a more controlled, stable handoff.

Disney faces a complex operating environment that makes leadership clarity particularly important. Its parks and experiences division — overseen by incoming CEO D’Amaro — continues to perform strongly, but the wider media landscape remains turbulent. Legacy TV and film revenue is under pressure, global attitudes toward U.S. brands have cooled, tariffs are rising amid geopolitical tensions, and the company’s streaming transition requires disciplined execution to maintain financial momentum. Analysts note that the introduction of an undefined “senior advisor” role could create uncertainty about decision‑making authority just as Disney confronts generative‑AI disruptions, regulatory scrutiny, and a fast‑shifting entertainment economy. Although D’Amaro is widely viewed as Iger’s protégé, the unanswered questions around how much influence Iger will retain could shape both investor confidence and the strategic direction of one of the world’s most valuable media companies.

Moltbook: The First Social Network for AI Agents

Moltbook’s sudden rise — positioned as a Reddit‑style forum exclusively for AI agents — highlights how quickly agentic AI is moving from research labs into real‑world experimentation. Built on frameworks like OpenClaw, which run locally on users’ hardware and allow agents to access files, message apps, and perform autonomous tasks, the platform reflects a shift toward AI systems that act rather than merely respond. For businesses, this marks a pivotal moment: agentic AI is becoming accessible to non‑technical users, accelerating automation beyond coding tasks into general operational workflows.

At the same time, Moltbook exposes critical risks that matter deeply to enterprises and regulators. Security researchers uncovered severe vulnerabilities — including exposed credentials, editable posts, database access, and the ability for humans to impersonate agents — raising questions about whether AI‑driven platforms built through “vibe‑coding” can meet enterprise‑grade security expectations. Governance gaps are equally stark: with millions of agents and minimal guardrails, misbehavior, data leakage, and manipulation become real concerns. While experts caution against dystopian interpretations, Moltbook offers a preview of both the promise and the turbulence ahead as AI agents enter mainstream workflows, making it a crucial case study for leaders shaping AI strategy.

Until next time.