7CO01 Work and working lives in a changing business environment

7CO01 Work and working lives in a changing business environment

The pre-pandemic couple of years who are in paid work by age split out into permanently employed, temporarily employed, and self-employed people.

But the big picture here is that from people’s mid-20s until about the age of 50, there is almost a constant employment rate of close to 85 per cent. After age 50, that begins to decline, reaching around 60 per cent at age 60, but even at age 69, we are talking about 16 per cent of people still being in paid work.

Now, reasonably unsurprisingly, what are the other things people do if they are not in paid work? When it comes to people in their 50s and 60s, there is growth as people age, and a fraction of people are out of work because they are unwell. But the really big group you can see there is represented by the red section, which is the people who are retired.

Now, how are these kinds of pictures changing over time?

Well, if we take the fraction of people who are employed again and split it out into these three groups, we can see that there is been a long secular increase in the employment rates of people in their 50s and 60s, up from 45 percent in the mid-90s to 61 percent by 2019, an increase of a third.

But it is important to know how many people are at work and what they are doing. We are just going to highlight here the types of occupations that older workers are involved in. We are going to highlight, in particular, the fraction of workers employed in professional, technical, or managerial occupations, those generally known as higher occupational class forms of work.

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What you can see here is there is this age pattern of what looks like a decline in the proportion of people in these professional and technical occupations between their 40s and 60s.

You do not see, for a given cohort, people moving out of these professional technical occupations. Instead, you see that people from younger generations are just more likely in their younger or middle ages to be in professional and technical occupations rather than people actually moving out of these occupations as they get older.

I think there is one important implication. As these younger generations come through and are approaching retirement, they seem more likely to be approaching retirement in different types of jobs than those who have approached retirement in the last decade or so. That is important because this change will present a different set of challenges for these people as opposed to previous generations.

The people moving in and out of work in their 50s and 60s and the determinants or associations with these moments.

If we take a sample of workers and track them over a year using UK government microdata, we can see how their economic activity changes. This changes very much depending on their age.

People start to retire often in their 50s, and by the time you reach the mid-60s, around one in five workers are retiring in any given year. That particular spike there that you can see is people at age 64, which is related to the fact that until a few years ago, the state pension age was 65 for men. So that shows 64-year-olds who have retired by 65, the old state pension age.

Now, I am just going to add a couple of other lines here to show how this compares to people moving out of work due to unemployment or other reasons for being out of work. You can see that these are much less important for older people than the moves out for retirement.

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However, there is some evidence of older people in their late 50s and early 60s moving into this other out-of-work stage rather than saying they are retired. Most of that is because people say they are not well enough to work.

What I am going to do now is think about what characteristics of people are most associated with leaving work in their 50s and 60s. We do that by controlling for different variables and teasing out which variables are most important in predicting people leaving work.

These are the factors that increase the probability of people leaving employment over a year. You can see that people temporarily employed in a temporary contract are eight percentage points more likely than permanent employees to leave.

Also, people with a long-standing health problem, who are full-time workers, who are born in the UK, or who are female — these groups are more likely to leave work than their equivalents: people working part-time, born abroad, or men.

The thing that is most concerning about this is the group of people who have health problems. This is partly because this is quite a large effect and partly because a very large proportion of people, by the time they reach their 50s and 60s, report a long-standing health problem. Indeed, around 40 per cent of workers in this population report having a health problem, which is a little concerning.

Now, the second thing I am going to look at here is not people leaving employment but taking the set of unemployed people and seeing whether they manage to get a new job.

That is particularly important because of the upcoming end to the furlough scheme, with predictions of higher unemployment. So, it is important to consider which types of people might find it harder to find new jobs.

Taking that, this looks at those unemployed people and what they are doing a year later. This is a little concerning for people who care about the welfare of older people because it shows that for people in their mid-30s, for example, almost half of unemployed people are finding a new job within a year. However, that declines after age 55, and people are not finding new jobs to the same extent.

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Leadership and management of change

HR plays a leading role in leading change, and here are four reasons why. Because HR is the driver of organisational strategy, if strategy creates change, then HR must lead change. This is my first argument.

Argument number two, HR is the enabler of organisational performance. The job of HR is not just to drive strategy but also to enable performance, get people to do their work, and translate that strategy into a result.

Nobody thinks this guy has gone crazy; the professor has gone nuts. This is our job in HR. If HR’s job is to enable performance, and if strategy drives performance, and if strategy creates change, then I am linking it all back to, hey, HR must be leading change.

Without performance, change will not happen. Change happens when the results are there, when there is less corruption, when the computer software works, when the performance management system works, when the product is selling when our sales have grown, and when our company is great. It is then that you would say that the strategy has worked. So, performance is linked to strategy, and strategy is linked to change, making HR responsible for leading change.

A popular saying says, “Strategy eats culture.” Strategy eats culture for breakfast. You know, and I know that many of you have heard that and written it down.

Culture will eat your strategy and all your performance plans. So, if HR is the custodian of culture, then HR must drive the change anchored in that culture, without which that change will fail.

My final argument is that HR is the manager, like a customer service manager, of the people experience. Today, we talk about people experience management. We want to improve the experience that our employees have; we want to create positive organisations.

However, although creating that positive experience, we must recognise that change is difficult. Change is hard. Change often ruffles people’s feathers. Change is sometimes unpalatable. Change is bitter. Change is difficult.

However, as managers of people experience, you had better be very interested in managing change because if not, change will make the people experience funny, making it difficult.

So, if you want to keep the people’s experience up, you better pay attention to that thing called change, which makes people uncomfortable. The first reason change does not happen, according to John Kotter, is when there is no sense of urgency.

So, change in itself can be very unravelling and stormy. You, as the HR person, need to manage it. If not, people’s experiences will not work. This is the role of HR. This is why HR has a role in managing change.

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