Is 2026 to be the year of corruption or of confidence?

copyright : William Furniss

“Lettre d’Asie” published on 27th January 2026 in L’Opinion.

Over the space of a few days, we have been given a glimpse of the systemic weakness of the authoritarian regimes of Caracas and Beijing, begging the question: will the West be able to take advantage of this in 2026?

Could 2026 be on its way to becoming as historic as 2025? Last weekend in Beijing we learnt that Zhang Youxia, a member of the Politburo and first-ranked vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission — the highest military rank in China — and for a long while under the protection of President X Jinping, was, at the age of 75, under investigation for “corruption” and “serious violations”. This is unprecedented.

Triple humiliation. Should this be seen as an initial consequence of the overthrow of Maduro in Venezuela, the resounding demonstration of American military force and China’s public humiliation? For it has suffered humiliation on three counts. Firstly, the humiliation of China’s intelligence service, a governmental delegation that, on the eve of the overthrow, was still welcoming over 600 projects involving bilateral cooperation. Secondly, military humiliation, illustrated by the inefficiency of Chinese defence systems: according to Asialyst, a very reliable website, nearly 60% of its radar systems could be ineffective due to lack of maintenance and spare parts. Thirdly, political and economic humiliation, with an estimated loss of almost $20 billion in loans, corresponding to the outstanding balance of China’s heaviest financial exposure overseas, which reached its peak at almost $100 billion under Hugo Chávez.

Will 2026 be the year in which the West recovers its ability to exploit the systemic corruption of authoritarian regimes?

The fact that, on the Monday following the American intervention, the banking regulator PBOC officially requested all Chinese banks to give a precise statement of the level of their exposure in Caracas was already an admission of unrecoverable losses. Outside China, this has fueled suspicions about the true nature of the Chinese presence in Venezuela. Inside China, it has revived criticism of the “New Silk Routes” programme, now increasingly being called “Silk Routs” since its overall losses could reach up to 30% of the loans that have been made.

Another unknown factor continues to amaze Western observers: persistent accusations of “corruption” within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) despite Xi Jinping’s 15 years in power and a restructuring of the PLA that has been presented as both thorough and modernising. In this context, it is difficult not to be reminded of former CIA director William Burns’ public statement in which he recognised that he had reoriented the Agency’s budget allowance in order to devote almost 20% of it to… China.

The return of the West. Perhaps then we can dream of 2026 being the year that will see a surprising return of the West. Could it recover its ability to exploit the main weakness of so-called authoritarian regimes like Teheran, Beijing and Moscow — their systemic corruption? And could we see a return to a form of confidence within Western democracies, as Alain Peyrefitte suggested in his lectures to the Collège de France (published as Du miracle en économie [The Economic Miracle]). According to him, this confidence shaped “divergence in development, for, on the one hand, mistrust of novelty paralyses innovation, and, on the other hand, confidence in the competition of responsible initiatives allows us to take risks — i.e. to do what human beings are called to do.”