My MPF Portfolio: A modest gain amidst October’s trade conflicts

My MPF Portfolio edged up 0.16% in October, yet ending its outperformance streak since May 2025.

The month started off steadily until 11 October, when US President Donald Trump threatened an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Consequently, US equities suffered their sharpest single-day fall since April, dragging Chinese equities down with them the following day.

Yet the sell-off proved short-lived. US equities staged a robust recovery in the third week of October as investors priced in drawn-out talks; Chinese equities followed suit in the final week, buoyed by expectations of fiscal easing, and clawed back some of the earlier losses.

That divergence was reflected in fund performance: the Manulife MPF North American Equity Fund rose 0.86% for the month, while Manulife MPF China Value Fund slipped 3.07%.

Source: Author’s Manulife MPF account, MPF Ratings’ monthly press releases

Against this backdrop, my MPF Portfolio — predominantly invested in the MPF China Value Fund — eked out 0.16% for the month. That modest gain left it 9 basis points adrift of the 0.25% average return of the overall MPF market, which is represented by the MPF Ratings All Fund Performance Index. And the shortfall snapped a run of outperformance stretching back to May.

Even so, the longer-term trend tells a more optimistic story. Year-to-date, my MPF Portfolio has outpaced the market index in six of the first 10 months, though it fell short in the other four.

Year-to-date leadership intact

The bigger picture remains encouraging. As at October 30, my MPF Portfolio’s value climbed to a record HK$1.045m, up 17.7% since 31 December 2024, and still 158 basis points ahead of the broader MPFR All Fund Performance index.

This sustained edge owes much to the MPF China Value Fund’s rigorous value discipline: scooping up high-quality Chinese stocks when they trade at distressed multiples. With trade frictions likely to linger, the fund’s resilience only bolsters the case for keeping Chinese equities at the heart of the allocation.

Latest allocation of my MPF portfolio as at 31 October 2025:

Source: Author’s Manulife MPF account

Outlook

My MPF portfolio’s focus on Chinese equities harnesses their attractive valuations and growing momentum while moderating exposure to the overpriced U.S. market. Despite a year-to-date underperformance, the deliberate pivot toward Chinese equities, supported by prudent risk management, positions the portfolio for a robust recovery and consistent long-term growth.