The Liam Cullen Conundrum

I noticed an interesting correlation in Swansea City’s Championship stats under Vitor Matos:

When Liam Cullen starts, Swansea lose.

When Cullen does not start, Swansea win.

Matos has lost 6 times as Swansea boss. Cullen started 5 of them, of 6 total (his other start was against Sheffield Wednesday, but Swansea could have probably won that with 10 men).

Under Matos:

Swansea’s points-per-game when Cullen does not start = 2.2. Over the course of the 32 games so far, that would put Swansea 8 points clear at the top of the table with 70.

Swansea’s points-per-game when Cullen starts = 0.5. Over the course of the 32 games so far, that would put Swansea 23rd, only spared from last place because Sheffield Wednesday have -7 points.

Here’s a visualisation and some more numbers:

Swansea’s performances with and without Liam Cullen as a starter under Vitor Matos

I know it’s a little rich putting so much on the shoulders of a single player in a team game, but there are no other players who have anything like this degree of correlation.

I also understand correlation is not causation, but I think there is causation: Cullen just ain’t an 8. When he plays there, he’s effectively playing out-of-position, so it’s as though Swansea have ten and a half men instead of eleven.

We know Liam Cullen is a good player. I’m not saying he isn’t. His career 0.32 Goals-per-game at Championship level says he’s a solid scorer, but his best position is debatable.

He started as a 9, a pure poacher, but teams don’t play poachers anymore. Modern systems play a single striker, and Cullen doesn’t have the profile for the role.

So he spends two seasons transitioning his skillset to become a 10 instead. He says it’s his preferred role. He’s good as a 10, but not perfect. A perfect 10 offers passing, scoring and dribbling. For Cullen, two out of three ain’t bad. There are plenty of effective 10s who weren’t great dribblers.

Then along comes Matos, who plays a single 9 with no 10 and two 8s. So Cullen, who just spent two seasons moving from 9 to 10, now finds himself having to move from 10 to 8. And it’s just too much of a reach.

I like Cullen a lot. He’s a Swansea boy and he generally gives a good effort. But in Matos’s high-energy counter-pressing system, Cullen is a cat in a team of dogs. He’ll still take up great positions, but he’s also still waiting for the play to come to him. He’s sitting in space ready to pounce on a ball that never comes while the other midfielders are running about with their tails up and their tongues flapping.

It’s not Cullen’s fault. His skill set is a bad match for the system, and yet Matos recognises Cullen’s place as a fan favourite and locker room presence. He mentioned Cullen was trying to rediscover his “joy”. Translation: Cullen’s not happy. Matos has been giving him chances, but at this point even Ollie Cooper would be better. Cooper’s a terrier and this midfield is a dog pound.

If the shape changed, there might be more room for Cullen’s skills. Ji-Sung Eom is also a cat, but he’s a cat with the right tricks for the system. He can play wing. Cullen can’t. However, Eom has become selfish of late. Thrashing bad shots from impossible angles instead of passing — ironically to Cullen some of the time, who is always in a good position.

With a shape change, Cullen could replace Eom as a second striker or a 10, where his skills could actually benefit the team. He can score goals after all, and this team needs more scorers.

Maybe the team just needs to look for Cullen more in the final third. He’ll probably be there. Or maybe Cullen needs to learn to tackle.

Or maybe it’s all just a big coincidence?