Understanding Life Expectancy

Life expectancy at birth in Nigeria is currently about 55 years.

According to the UN World Population Prospects 2025 report, this is currently the lowest in the world.

We are closely followed by Chad and the Central African Republic.

This is scandalous.

But does it mean that most Nigerians are not expected to live beyond 55 years?

Does it mean that the average life span of a Nigerian adult is 55 years?

Not nearly.

The key phrase there is ‘at birth’.

An adult has already survived early-age mortality causes and is expected to have a longer lifespan than calculated from birth.

The life expectancy figure is a statistical average that includes all deaths, including those that occur in the first year of life.

We know that averages are dramatically affected by extreme values.

We also know that Nigeria has a high birth rate coupled with a high infant mortality rate — one of the highest globally.

With regard to Crude Birth Rate, we rank in the top 20.

Our infant mortality rate is more than double the global average.

And we have the world’s highest under-five mortality rate — according to 2026 UN reports.

We have a lot of deaths happening at the beginning of life.

Now, this high mortality in the lowest age-group heavily pulls down the overall average.

What this means is that a Nigerian who escapes dying in their first year can actually expect to live much beyond 55 years.

In fact, once a child survives the first year (and particularly the first five years), their statistical life expectancy increases significantly.

For context, Nigerians who reach age 65 can expect to live an additional 12.2 years, reaching a total age of 77.2 years.

So, to dramatically improve our national life expectancy at birth figures, we need to drastically reduce infant and under-five mortalities.

Reducing birth rate will also help.

Nigeria’s life expectancy is low not because Nigerians die young, but because too many Nigerians die as children.

So, we don’t have a longevity problem.

What we have is a child survival problem.