AD2L S47 Explorer League Week 5 Predictions

Hurtling towards playoffs, we’re starting to see which teams have the sauce and which are NOT quirked up white boys, little bit of swag. After this week, we are really going to see some lopsided matchups which should only solidify the rankings as they stand. Mathematically speaking, things are still very much up in the air for Explorer. Lemon Snow Cones are still not guaranteed Upper Bracket, and Josh A. Thoughts is not guaranteed lower. However, I am cautiously optimistic that what we will see are some tiebreakers! The “center four” teams (3rd through 6th) are all within 2 wins of each other, and if there’s no real breakout, I can imagine that 7 wins puts you in and around the discussion for 4th/5th tiebreakers. Maybe next week, when the math is a little easier, I’ll drop a more unhinged analysis of this…

TRIES 🏉 (2–6) vs Dire Sirens 🧜‍♀️🌊 (3–5) Two of my favourite teams, duking it out for a chance to escape Lower Bracket. Both teams have had mixed results this season, with both suffering pretty definitive losses last week. On paper, this should be a win for the Sirens, but converting their coaching and practice into match success has been a bit of a fraught endeavor. Week after week we see left field picks that simply don’t work out, or even lanes that break down in the midgame over a series of suicidal jumps from mid or offlane. DS have all the tools in their kit to win these games, it’s just going to come down to consciously executing on the strategies. TRIES, on the other hand, has had some real bright spots, but outside of their victory over JAT, they’ve failed to convert to wins. For that reason, I am aggressively predicting a 2–0 for the Dire Sirens, though a 1–1 split is very possible if the draft gets out of control again this week for the girly pops.

Josh A. Thoughts 💭 (1–7) vs The Petting Zoo Rejects 🐐 🚫 (4–4) After the live burial PzR enjoyed last week, I think that JAT is in for the full wrath of those rejected from the Petting Zoo. With their full squad, I can only expect a swift and decisive end 2–0 in favour of PzR. Obviously, JAT has been struggling this season, in no small part due to their many roster changes over the last month, but perhaps more troubling than that is the courage of their conviction. If I had a nickel for every time their captain promoted himself mid series to a higher farm priority role, I’d have two nickels…which isn’t a lot but weird it’s happened twice! I wasn’t that concerned over the first move, as Allegedly is a much stronger offlaner than mid, but Mattyboy carry is hard to stomach for me. This is one of the best teamfighters and space creators in Explorer, unironically, and having him on a position that needs to stay alive and take only good fights is just not a prospect I love. I’m not expecting JAT to suddenly turn around and beat LSC 2–0 next week, but I’m saying that if they are all playing new positions with 2 new teammates a week, there’s simply not going to be any team growth.

MTL: Pretty Derby 👵 👒🏇 (6–2) vs Josh A. Benz 🚘 (4–4) So fuckin close to MOTW, but we can’t have MTL in there every week! I’m boldly calling for a 2–0 by MTL BUT I think that JAB is very likely to steal a game here. MTL has inarguably been one of the biggest success stories in Explorer this season, visibly leveling up week after week (in no small part due to their coach, Nomad). From the upset over F4 week one, to drawing blood against LSC week 3, they have looked truly incredible week after week. However, I believe the pickup of rakastan saukkoja has significantly buffed the JAB stack, and from this point on they should be thought of as a totally different team. I would say in all seriousness that raka has had higher carry impact this season than Bonta; for this reason I think that we will need to see Sefat perform to his expected standard to ensure the 2–0 in their favour. Booty Sweat is going to have to pull out his best game of the season to give his team a shot, but if anyone can do it, it’s this absolute lad. Last note is of course, Old Man Gabe, who has been dominating week after week. If he is able to hold raka in check in lane and through the early midgame, the pressure is much relieved on his cores to have amazing games.

MOTW:

Lemon Snow Cones 🍋 🍧 (7–1) vs Farmers Farming Feet Forever 👨‍🌾👩‍🌾🌾🦶 (5–3) Finally, after 4 weeks, the Tillers of Toes can say that they have a winning record! The question is, can they maintain it through week 5? The Yeomen are in for their biggest test of the season and it’s time to see if the dogs they’ve been cultivating are all bark and no bite. I thought perhaps LSC had been somewhat figured out after MTL took that hard fought draw, but alas we need to chalk it up to the Kino effect; PzR was routed without much difficulty. I’m concerned that the OnlyFeet squad’s playstyle is too slow to handle LSC, especially as they so often go for dual carries on the 1 and 2. A lot of this game is going to rest on my favourite, at least top 8 mid player in Explorer, Elder. If he can pop off, shut down tar, then I think there’s a chance for Rene to carry the game. My recommendation would be to go for a dive/teamfight comp. Give me Alch carry, elder’s Earth Spirit mid, Axe or NS on Gator, and get on top of whatever squishy pos 1 tar is running mid. If you keep tar from snowballing, and you keep weebaer from enabling his cores, you have every chance to take the game. PrinceSnowDaddy is one of the best supports in Explorer; if you can lock in a won safelane, you can get an early lead and snowballing it to victory. I am very optimistically predicting a 1–1 draw, in no small part due to the fact I have lovingly spoon-fed a winning strategy to my little piggies/little piggie enjoyers. LSC can lose a game. The Eternal Agriculturalists of Pedes can win one. Let’s fucking see it boys!!

Another exciting week in store, good luck to all! Keep your eyes open for more as the week continues…