Donbas and Other Stories

So today, let’s go back to the grind of the Eastern Front and how that is going. At this point, I will treat both wars as two fronts of a much larger conflict. And truth be told, the other shoe may soon fall in the Korean Peninsula, more of those near the end of this piece. So let’s go back to the Eastern Front, where the United States is still, kind of, serving as an intermediary between Moscow and Kyiv, but is finding the latter unwilling to give up territory. So they are back to pressuring Ukraine, again. Let’s face it, the US cannot fight two-front wars at this point, especially in modern warfare that has developed over the last five years. But it is trying hard to stop this war, to the benefit of Russia:

The US does not see where Ukraine and Russia can agree on territories. Therefore, they are putting pressure on Ukraine to give up Donbas, — UP sources.

▪️Everything is going in a circle: Russia constantly returns to the “agreements” with Trump in Anchorage during negotiations. No matter what we say, the Americans always answer “Leave Donbas, and we will build a paradise for you, as we agreed in Alaska”.

▪️In addition, if the EU cannot overcome Hungary’s resistance and allocate money to Ukraine, in the second half of 2026 we will run out of money for social spending.

▪️Rada is preparing a work plan for the parliament if Ukraine has to fight for another 1–3 years.

So here we are. Where both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed on a kind of Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement, and Trump is desperate to deliver on his end because he wants access to the Russian Far East and those minerals. That he does not understand that Russia has a long history of never abiding by agreements unless it is advantageous to them is another story.

Many of us believe they agreed to split the world. Russia gets Europe, and Ukraine; the US gets the Americas, maybe Iran. Of course, we are choking on Iran right now. This brings me to the oil situation for Moscow, because they are getting hit as well. Why? Ukraine continues its strategic campaign against the Russian oil capacity:

❌ Reuters: Russia’s largest Baltic Sea oil export ports, Primorsk and Ust-Luga, have suspended crude oil and fuel exports since Sunday following drone attacks.

The situation at the port of Ust-Luga is unclear — it is located on the southern side of the Gulf of Finland opposite Primorsk, and there are no reports of any damage there.

The export suspension is exacerbating the global shortage caused by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US and Israeli strikes.

Primorsk exported approximately 17 million tons of petroleum products last year, while Ust-Luga exported approximately 33 million.

Oil loadings were already interrupted after the strike on Primorsk in September.

So here we are. Russia has a lot of oil, but it has a bit of a problem processing and exporting it. This is where we are on this. And at this point, attacks are anywhere Ukraine drones and Flamingos have range. And the negotiations have continued in a bilateral fashion, but Ukraine continues to hold fast to its vision, and quite honestly, the troubles are coming to Russia. So these were held over the weekend in Florida, and again, where are the professionals from the State Department?

Zelensky: We discussed in detail the results of the meetings in America. It is significant that during the report of our negotiators, Russia launched a new wave of “shaheds” against Ukraine.

The team reported on what was really heard in Florida: accents, opportunities and difficulties. The most important thing is to work out security guarantees so that they allow us to get closer to the end of the war. Security is the key to peace.

The geopolitical situation has become more complicated due to the war against Iran, and this, unfortunately, adds to Russia’s confidence. But the fundamental circumstances have not changed.

Russia continues this war and destabilization in Europe, supports the Iranian regime with intelligence data and thus prolongs the war in that region, and is also preparing for new conflicts in the coming years. This threat of constant war in different geographies must be stopped.

And this can only be done together: America, Europe, other global actors. Meetings at the level of leaders are needed to really resolve everything. Instructed the team to continue to work as actively as possible with partners to ensure that diplomacy is meaningful and that humanitarian issues, such as prisoner exchanges, are addressed, in particular. Also instructed to inform European and Canadian partners about the meetings in Florida.

Yes, Russia may be more unstable by the day, but it is still at a hybrid war with the West. See the agreement in Alaska? They want their prize too. That price is Eastern Europe. They want to redraw the world to what it was. And we all know the folly of this, having watched it take shape over the last five years. Russia has less and less capacity, but the dream has not died. Because Russia’s dreams of empire are old. You might argue they are part of the national DNA.

In the meantime, Russia is benefiting from higher oil prices. And that is likely why Russia does not mind the Iran war. It is literally restoring some of the depleted finances, assuming they can physically export that oil:

Russia is benefiting financially from the Iran war, as oil prices jumped from ~$70 to over $100, boosting state revenues, — Reuters

This surge lets Moscow delay planned fiscal tightening, including changes to its reserve fund rules and possible spending cuts.

Energy income is expected to spike (up ~70% month-to-month), easing short-term budget pressure despite sanctions and war costs.

Officials now plan to keep current rules for now, possibly pushing reforms to 2027.

So this was likely part of the agreement in Alaska. Some day, a historian will be able to go into those records and find how badly this is. It might also explain why American political leadership does not care about Russia sharing intel that will get US troops killed.

Why? They only care about their own pocketbooks and how they will enrich themselves further. The idiots who joined the armed forces are disposable in their world. And depending on how bad this gets, we may need a draft. Trust me, Barron Trump is not joining; we already have a ready-made excuse. He is too tall, I shit you not. Is that more believable than bone spurs? You be the judge. In the meantime, the war has now reached the Leningrad Region, one that, if there is war, I expect to go back to Europe:

Ukrainian drones strike Russia’s largest oil port on the Baltic

On the night of March 23, Ukrainian drones struck the Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea, reported the governor of the Leningrad region, Alexander Drozdenko. “A fuel tank was damaged and a fire broke out. Firefighting is underway, and the staff has been evacuated,” Drozdenko wrote on his Telegram channel.

The Primorsk port is one of the largest transshipment points for the export of Russian oil and low-sulfur Euro-5 diesel fuel. Its oil loading capacity is about 1 million barrels of oil and about 300,000 barrels of diesel fuel per day. Prior to this, Ukrainian drones struck it on September 12 last year. At that time, some of the berths were put out of service, and the oil shipment schedule was delayed by several days.

The aerial attack on the Leningrad region began late in the evening the day before. By six in the morning, more than 50 drones had been shot down over the region, Drozdenko specified. A residential house in the village of Izora in the Gatchina district was damaged. Windows were broken in three apartments.

Yes, a Ukrainian drone also fell in Lithuania, revealing how much NATO still has detection holes in that part of the Eastern Front. But while Russia is benefiting from the sharp increase in oil prices, there are a bunch of very angry Ukrainian birds explosively nesting where they can fly in. This is hurting their ability to export. And at some point, if the damage is deep enough, they may have to declare their inability to continue fulfilling those contracts, as many Gulf states are doing right now.

Now the promised North Korea post, because it caught my eye this morning. A reminder, we are at a truce with North Korea, not a peace agreement. Technically, it would be a resumption of war, not a new war:

Kim Jong-un stated that South Korea is the “most hostile state” for North Korea.

According to him, in the event of any provocations, Pyongyang is ready to give a tough response. Moreover, DPRK is thinking of consolidating the status of an “enemy state” at the constitutional level.

Kim Jong-un also emphasized the country’s readiness to act decisively to “protect the sovereignty and security of the state.”

A few reminders about North Korea. They do have an impressive amount of long-range artillery, aimed at Seoul. They have been getting experience in Russia on this new form of warfare, and they are a nuclear power. The US has about 28,000 troops in South Korea, and they would not stop an attack. They would serve more like a speed bump. And they are mostly based at Camp Humphreys, and are subservient to the Indo-Pacific Command, and recently lost some THAAD batteries to the Middle East, for that other front.

So is a third front in this war about to open? I mean, we are pretty much bugged down in Iran. Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. This might be Kim Jong-Un’s chance to unify the peninsula under his control and vision. And while his country may look nuts to us outsiders, this is a very rational actor looking at this and thinking, I might not have a better chance.”

This is what people need to understand. National leaders, like Putin, Trump, the Mullahs in Iran (though that is shifting quickly to the IRGC), and others, are rational actors. Ok, we can argue about Trump somewhat, because of his developing dementia and his malignant narcissistic personality. And we need to stop underestimating all this. In fact, here is one reason: the modern war that is quickly expanding is a total war, with a lot of cheap drones. And no, the United States and a lot of Europe are not ready for this. And I will say it again. The United States will not be able to avoid damage at home. This is not the nature of modern war. It will reach us as well. Given how cheap drones are, make that assumption. It is safer.