Trump Takes the “L” To Save GOP Midterm Hope

And Throws Israel to the Wolves

Photo by Kyle Glenn on Unsplash

One can call U.S. President Donald Trump many things, but I never thought I’d see the day in which I’d watch him “Take the L.” He doesn’t seem the type. Yet, upon reading the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), he did just that. And in so doing, he threw one of America’s biggest allies, Israel, to the wolves and made the Middle East less, not more stable.

Why? My best guess is that he got himself into what he thought would be an easy war. It was anything but. With the midterms looming and the GOP’s hopes of holding control of Congress fading more and more with every day gas prices sit above $4 per gallon, he made a choice.

As an old-school, Cold War Army brat, I remember my Dad, a career infantryman who served in the Korean War as well as on several peacekeeping missions, telling me the 2 rules of battle:

1. Never pick a fight you can’t win; and

2. Never, ever negotiate with terrorists.

Trump obviously didn’t know, or at the very least didn’t follow these rules.

In looking at the text of the MOU, it’s not just the content of the agreement that bothers me; it’s the inherently lopsided tenor inherent in the language used. The entire document demands that the US immediately and up front grant concessions, while any vague commitments the Iranian Regime may or may not make are kicked down the road 60 days.

Contrast the following language. First, with respect to US commitments:

4.* *Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days…

10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU…

And now, let’s look at the language used when detailing Iran’s obligations:

11. …The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down-blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal

5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa…

See the difference? Immediately upon signing for the US, while Iran agrees to make arrangements, use best efforts and resolve issues based on mutually agreed to terms to be determined. Not one single centrifuge destroyed, not an ounce of enriched uranium handed over.

In ordinary circumstances, this type of language in a contract or an MOU would make my legal BS metre overheat, but in this case, because the Iranian Regime is famous for making promises it doesn’t keep, and for employing stalling tactics, it’s blown a fuse!

But it gets worse. The opening paragraph purports to bring Israel into the deal by mentioning Lebanon in the “ceasing of hostilities.” Israel wasn’t even in the room. How are they bound? Short answer: they aren’t. And I’m sure Hezbollah feels the same way about any purported authority this MOU has over them. Given the fact that fighting continues in and around Kfar Tebnit, I’d say they’re right.

And here’s the big problem (I haven’t even addressed the $300B in aid) I see. I’m going to say the quiet part out loud. This victory, and it is a victory for Iran against the world’s greatest superpower, is going to do nothing to stabilize the region. It’s going to destabilize it ever further.

Winners normally don’t slink away. Winning feels good. Winning emboldens. If you’re a bully and you win a fight in the schoolyard, you feel tough and you’re ready to take on the next kid. Do you really think Iran’s proxies are just going to pack up their drones, rockets, etc., and say, “Okay, we won, we’ll leave Israel alone now?” Not a chance! I fear even more now than ever for my Israeli brothers and sisters.

I wish I had something good to say about the MOU. I don’t. The fact is, Trump started the war with a clear objective: “No nukes for Iran.” It was a hard, red line. He underestimated how hard and how unpopular it would be. And with the midterms looming, he agreed to a bad deal, threw an ally under the bus, left everyone scratching their heads, and made the world less, not more, safe.

I think maybe instead of writing The Art of the Deal, he should have been reading The Art of War.