The Week in Polling: three days to go

There are now three days to go, so I’ll be once again upping the frequency until Thursday.

The Westminster picture: Labour remain second in votes, third in seats

The weekly three (YouGov, More in Common and Find Out Now) published this week, and we have polls out from BMG and Opinium but no tables yet. I’ll hopefully get a chance to crunch the numbers tomorrow.

Reform’s lead drops to 7.9

So based on the polls we had (and also taking an aged poll from the Good Growth Foundation out of the equation), Reform’s vote dropped 0.3 points in a week, while Labour’s dropped 0.2, but that still keeps them second. The Tory vote broke even, while the Green vote went up by 0.2 points and the LibDem vote edged up by 0.1 points. One health warning: most if not all of the fieldwork was carried out before the row over Zack Polanski retweeting criticism of the Metropolitan Police. We’ll see what effect, if any, that has over the next few days.

Reform remain forecast as the largest party

In terms of the projection: Reform remain the largest party, but only with 242 seats (down 21 on last week’s projection). The Tories have an extra 17 for 107, while Labour have an extra three for 83. The LibDems remain on 79 and the Greens hold on 69. The SNP fall by one to 42 (not a good time for their momentum to be stalling) and Plaid remain on seven. Your Party return to the scoreboard with two.

The Scottish Parliament: two MRPs and Norstat publish new figures

This week saw a megapoll from Stonehaven with more than three thousand responses, those have been gathered over seven rounds of fieldwork starting in February and concluding two weeks ago. No wonder, then, that they put the Greens on 10% of the Constituency Vote. Meanwhile, Norstat published their first poll since the close of nominations, so they have the Green Constituency Vote on a more logical 1%. Finally, More in Common have unveiled the findings from their final MRP.

Anyway, plugging the figures from both polls into my model, I have the SNP down one to 62, Reform up three to 21, Labour down one to 16 and the Greens up one to 13. The LibDems dropping one for 9, and the Tories drop one for 8.

I now have the SNP two short of a majority

There is the possibility of the Greens gaining a constituency in Edinburgh, but rather than Edinburgh Central, the model points to the neighbouring seat of Edinburgh North Eastern & Leith, with Kate Nevens unseating Higher & Further Education Minister Ben Macpherson. This creates a gap in the Regional seats, which could be filled by Reform’s Nigel Douglas.

In the Highlands & Islands, I have the Kristopher Leask now picking up a second seat for the Greens at the expense of the Tories’ Jamie Halcro Johnston. In Mid Scotland & Fife, I have Reform’s Rachael Wright winning a third seat for them while Labour’s Joe Long loses out. While in the South, I have Senga Beresford picking up Reform’s third seat, with the LibDems’ Duncan Dunlop missing out.

The Senedd: Survation return to the fray, and a new MRP from More in Common

After a year-long absence from Senedd voting Intention polls, Survation wade back in with a poll commissioned by S4C and Aberystwyth University, putting Reform 2 points ahead, the first poll in more than two months to do so. More in Common’s MRP poll had the two parties level on seats, but Plaid three points ahead in votes.

No change in my Senedd projection

The results don’t change my model: I still have Plaid on 36 seats, Reform on 32, Labour on 13 (with First Minister Eluned Morgan not being one of them), the Tories on 7, the Greens on 6 and the LibDems on 2.

The English local elections: little movement in the polls, little movement in the projections

While there have been some big movements in the last week, the changes aren’t that widespread. They’re most pronounced in London.

London: a rough week for Labour

In contrast to last week’s polls, this week’s are grim for Labour: the party has fallen by 2.7 points in the capital, and the LibDems by 1.3. Reform have picked up 0.9 points, the Tories 0.8 and the Greens 0.7, with “Others” picking up 1.7.

This means I’m forecasting that Labour will control four councils fewer than I thought last week: Lambeth and Southwark are now in the Green column, Barking & Dagenham is in the Reform column, and Croydon is now forecast to remain in No Overall Control, though I still have Labour as the favourites to win the Mayoralty there. In Lewisham, however, I now have the Greens winning the Mayoral election as well as the Council.

Less red on the map this week

South East: a good week for the Tories

After last week’s positive showing for the Greens, the South East shifted again this week: the Tories picked up 1.8 points and Reform gained 0.3 points, while the Greens dropped 1.2 points, the LibDems 0.8 and Labour 0.6.

A new gain for Reform in East Sussex…

In Council terms, it means I have Hastings as a Reform gain again, while along the coast, I have Adur as an NOC gain.

…and another loss for Labour in West Sussex

East of England: heavy losses for Reform

Reform enjoyed a measure of recovery last week but it’s been more than wiped out this week: they drop 3.2 points, while Labour advance 1.4 points, the Greens 1.1, the Tories 0.9 and LibDems 0.6. The 0.9-point fall for “Others” suggests Restore Britain aren’t profiting from Reform’s drop.

In terms of councils, that puts Norfolk back into the NOC column.

Meanwhile, in Hertfordshire, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield now look like Labour wins while Three Rivers could be a Tory gain.

More majorities in Hertfordshire?

North West: Reform fall back again

After last week’s gains, Reform recede a little in the North West too: they drop 1.3 points on last week, with Labour and the LibDems picking up 0.8 points each.

The Red Rose county more aptly named

What this means is I once again have Preston and West Lancashire in the Labour column.

A Labour hold in Trafford

And in Greater Manchester, I now have Trafford back as a Labour hold.

Yorkshire and the Humber: losses for Labour and the LibDems

Across the Pennines, the LibDems fall by 1.4 points and Labour by 1.1, while “Others” gain 1.3 and Reform picks up 1.0 points.

None of that changes the projected outcome.

West Midlands: Small movements

In contrast to the big movements seen elsewhere, not much happened in the West Midlands: “Others” gained by 0.6 points, and Labour by 0.4, while the Tories dropped 0.6 and Reform dropped 0.4. No changes are forecast to my projections.

North East: the Greens pick up

In a relatively stable week in the North East, the Greens gained 1.2 points, while Labour and the Tories dropped by 0.8 and 0.6 points respectively. I’m not seeing any changes to my projections so far.

South West: good again for the LibDems

The dial doesn’t move in the South West despite some big moves: the LibDems gained 2.9 points and Labour 0.9, while Reform dropped by 1.3 points, the Greens by 1.1 and the Tories by 1.0.

East Midlands: a drop for Reform

Things switch around again in the East Midlands: Reform drop 2.0 points and the LibDems 1.1 points. By contrast, Labour pick up 1.6 points and the Tories 1.1. It doesn’t change my projection of Lincoln going into No Overall Control.

The scoreboard

All told, I’m still projecting that Labour will lose 36 councils (albeit not necessarily the same 36). There’ll only be 13 more hung councils, and Reform improve from last week with 18 gains forecast, while the LibDems still look like they’ll break even. The Tories’ prospective net losses are now only three, while the Greens get a little stronger: I now have them winning nine councils.

Continued rough results for Labour

Hopefully tomorrow, BMG will publish their tables, and someone at Opinium will realise that theirs didn’t go up on Saturday. With the Bank Holiday, I wouldn’t be too surprised if YouGov were a day late…