I-League 24/25: Mid-season Review

Note: This article takes the data until match week 11 (mid-season)

Points Table

Title Race

Churchill Brothers FC Goa (CB) are leading the title (& promotion to ISL) race with 22 points, while Namdhari FC (NFC) are a whisker behind with 21 points. Gokulam Kerala FC (GKFC), Inter Kashi (IK) are not far behind the leaders.

Relegation Battle

Sporting Club Bengaluru (SCB), currently, are in the relegation spot (8 points). Delhi FC (DFC), Aizawl FC (AFC) are 1 point ahead, making them likely candidates to drop to I-league 2 next season.

It is going to be a roller-coaster 2nd half of the season!

Points Table: I-league 24/25

League Predictions

These predictions are based on 10,000 simulations of each of the remaining fixtures based on the already completed 66 matches in this season.

Title Race

CB have a 68% chance to be promoted to the ISL and, very surprisingly, Shillong Lajong FC (SLFC) have a 19% chance of making it to the top! Even though SLFC are 5th in the table currently, they have scored 27 goals (league highest) in their 11 matches. So, even though they have conceded 18 (5th most), their scoring puts them at such an optimistic chance of winning the league. GKFC, IK, NFC have single digit probabilities of winning the league (as of now of course)

Relegation Battle

Down in the table, SCB’s chances of getting relegated are 62%. However, it’s not done and dusted for them because, DFC and AFC have a 20% and 10% chance respectively.

Mid-table

Real Kashmir FC (RKFC), Rajasthan United FC (RUFC), Sreenidi Deccan FC (SDFC) are most likely headed for a mid-table (4th to 9th) finish. Promoted side Dempo SC (DSC) are quietly doing well, and have a decent 60% chance to finish in the mid-table

Predictions based on custom simulation model

Team Performances

CB have managed to do well in, both, scoring and defending. One of the reasons they are at the top of the pile. NFC have scored goals close to the league average, but they are placed 2nd because of their excellent defending. They have conceded the least number of goals in the league (8). GKFC are also not far away, conceding only 9 goals (2nd least)

AFC have the worst defending record (26 goals conceded), but their saving grace has been their average of 3 goals every 2 matches (1.5 goals per match). If they can plug their defense even a little, they will be able to get a mid-table finish

RKFC & DSC are other teams who have been earning their points by being solid at the back. Especially DSC, who have scored the least goals (7), have managed to stay away from the relegation zone because of their defense (take notes SCB).

Goals scored & conceded vs League Points

Goals scored vs conceded

Discipline

Overly defensive teams usually seem to have a lot of cards on their record. I would like to highlight Dempo SC here, who have conceded the 4th least goals while being the most disciplined team in the league. They have 13 yellows and no reds (least in both)

Left: Goals conceded vs Discipline; Right: Discipline ranking team-wise

Ranking team-wise. Left: Yellow cards; Right: Red cards

Player Performances

Almost every team has had prolific goal-scorers in the season so far. 9 out of the 12 teams have a player in the top 10 (CB has 2)

Douglas Tardin (SLFC) is the top scorer in the league (11 goals, 10 non-penalty goals).

Interesting: Alain Oyarzun (RUFC) has scored 4 goals and all of them are penalties!

Player-wise top 10 rankings. Left: Total goals; Center: Non-penalty goals scored; Right: Penalty goals scored

Lalrinzuala (AFC) is having a fantastic season in front of goal. He has scored a total of 7 goals with an average frequency of 1 goal every 79 minutes (best in the league), and Douglas Tardin (11 overall) has one every 81 minutes

Player-wise top 10 rankings. Left: Total goal scoring frequency; Right: Non-penalty goal scoring frequency

AFC have been the most undisciplined team and seems like most of the dirty work is being done by Lalthankhuma (6 yellows, 1 red)

Among other consistent offenders are Cledson (NFC) and Aman (SLFC).

Interesting: Cledson is also among the top 3 goal-scorers in the league (see above graphs)

Player-wise top 10 rankings. Left: Total indiscipline; Center: Yellow cards; Right: Red cards

Overall, it is open season in the I-League this season as there are multiple title & relegation contenders. Nothing is set in stone, especially in the I-League. Like I said, it’s going to be a roller-coaster of a 2nd half!

PS: All graphs are taken from the Indian football analytical dashboard (which is my own, so credit to me)