12th June 2026 — Dhanam’s Nifty Report — Is the US-Iran war almost over?

Nifty Stance Bullish

In last week’s report, we issued a bearish call, and as of 12.45 PM today, Nifty was trading below last week’s closing price. That's when the news broke that Iran has agreed to the US peace deal. What followed was a strong short-covering rally, and Nifty went up 331 pts (~1.42%). Shortly thereafter, we got the news that Iranian delegates are meeting their US counterparts in Geneva on the 14th June to sign the deal.

The stance has reversed to bullish; as you can see, the blue EMA has crossed the green EMA from the bottom to the top (see green arrow). The ADX (Average Directional Index) is now at 21.86 > 20, which means the trend formation is still in progress.

After market hours, we got the inflation data at 3.9% YoY vs 3.48%. The price increases were obvious due to the West Asia conflict, but we still believe much of the increase may be felt in June and July, as the fuel price increases were initiated only in May.

Important Things to Watch for the Next Week

1. Data points to watch from a domestic perspective: WPI Inflation, Unemployment Rate, FX Reserves, M3 money supply.
2. Data points to watch from a global perspective: US Retail Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, Fed interest rate decision & FOMC statement, and jobless claims. UK CPI and Bank of England interest rate decision. Eurozone CPI.
3. The US-Iran peace deal signing at Geneva, Switzerland on 14th June.
4. IPO Listing: Utkal Specialty Industries on 17th June.
5. If Nifty moves up, the resistance levels are 23793, 23925 and 24192. If Nifty falls, the support levels are 23357, 22781 and 22519.

Note: The technical analysis indicator mentioned above is for educational purposes only and not a guarantee that the trade could end up in profits.

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