The Day in Polling: Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow

As expected, YouGov published their Westminster Voting Intention figures today, as did More in Common, while Find Out Now published a day early. And Deltapoll returned to the fray.

The Scottish Parliament: final polls all around

Today saw YouGov produce their final MRP poll, and Ipsos reveal their final numbers for STV News. Later, More in Common announced numbers (data tables pending), Find Out Now unveiled their final figures, and Survation released an MRP poll for the Diffley Partnership. Putting the numbers from YouGov, Ipsos, Find Out Now and Survation into my model gives the SNP a little boost, who are now up one on yesterday for 63, Reform drop two to 19. Labour remain on 16, the Greens go up one to 14, the LibDems hold on 9 and Tories are stuck on 8.

The SNP: two short of a majority

I’m going back to projecting an SNP hold in Edinburgh North Eastern & Leith, putting Ben Macpherson back in to Holyrood, and meaning that the Greens’ Kate Nevens gets elected on the Regional Vote, at the expense of Reform’s Nigel Douglas. Meanwhile, in Mid Scotland & Fife, I have Mags Hall getting a second Green seat, keeping Reform’s Rachel Wright out of Holyrood.

The Senedd: the last hurrah

Last night saw ITV Wales publish their final poll from YouGov, while Survation unveiled numbers this lunchtime and Find Out Now this evening. Between them, my model changes to show Plaid move up two for 37, while Reform hold on 32 and Labour stay on 13. There will eight Tories instead of seven, and just three Greens instead of six. The LibDems remain on 2.

Plaid up, but still need Labour’s support

In Casnewydd Islwyn, Reform’s Marie-Claire Lea picks up a third seat at the expense of the Greens’ Lauren James. Reform’s gain in cancelled out in Gwynedd Maldwyn, where Plaid’s Elwyn Vaughan nets the party a fourth seat, with Reform’s Claire Johnson-Wood missing out.

I’m now projecting that South Wales West MS (in the last session) Tom Giffard will win the Tories a seat in Gŵyr Abertawe, at the expense of the Greens’ Chris Evans. And in Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, Plaid’s Sarah Rees will be their second MS, with the Greens’ Amy Greenfield losing out.

The English local elections: a last-minute recovery for Labour

Some fresh Labour holds in London

There are some notable shifts following on from today’s figures. There’s a recovery for Labour in London, with Croydon, Lambeth and Southwark, along with the Lewisham Mayoral Election (but not the Council) going into the Labour column.

A Labour loss in Stevenage?

In East Anglia, I have Norfolk County Council going into the Reform gain column again, while I have Labour losing Stevenage again.

Labour retain some Adur-ation in West Sussex

Meanwhile in the South East, I have Adur back as a Labour hold.

Looking up for Labour in Greater Manchester

Finally, there are contrasting fortunes for Labour in the North West: the party will hold on to Bury and Rochdale, but control of Preston.

One more Labour loss in Lancashire

So now I’m projecting that Labour will lose 32 councils (four fewer than I thought yesterday). There’ll now be 11 more hung councils (down 3). Reform move up one from yesterday to 19, while the Greens drop two for seven.

A marginally improved position for Labour

A hypothetical Westminster election

The polls to publish their Westminster Voting Intention figures today show a last-minute shift in momentum against the Greens — clearly the critical coverage of Zack Polanski has hit the party to a degree — with a fall of 1.1 points, though the LibDems drop 0.3 points with no negative coverage of Ed Davey. Conversely, Labour pick up 0.8 points, Reform 0.5 and the Tories 0.2.

The Reform lead: 7.5 points

But in terms of Parliamentary seats, the Reform group would be 11 seats bigger, while the Tory group would be six smaller. Labour would have eight more, while the LibDems would have four fewer and there’d be nine fewer Green MPs. There’d be one more SNP MP, with no Your Party representation.

Reform still well short of a majority

And that’s where we are ahead of Polling Day tomorrow — I’ll do a quick sweep for any late polls, and also double check my Holyrood numbers once the data tables for the More in Common Holyrood VI poll are published. But for many, it’s the Poll that Matters tomorrow.

And given the fragmented, divided state of public opinion, I’m expecting the many, many people to be deeply unhappy at the results on a local level, national level or both. If you live in an area where an election is taking place, you minimise your chances of being among those many, many people by taking part. Go vote.