Virginia State Elections

It goes without saying that the controversy over AG-candidate Jay Jones’ despicable texts will have a marked impact on the race. The question is how far does that go? Will it only affect his own race, with incumbent Jason Miyares? will it affect Abigail Spanberger? What of the House of Delegates? It is impossible to tell until after the election is finished, and even then, hard to determine how much of an impact it will have.

But I will conjecture something: When you wish for the death of your political opponents (and their children!) you are opening the floodgates to massive backlash. Couple with this fact that Democrats have not gone so far as to call for him to drop out, he is an albatross around their necks that will stay there until the evening of Nov. 4th.

Beyond the AG race, which is clearly going to be won by Miyares by somewhere between 5 and 10%, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has had her own difficulties, namely in voter name recognition. Early on, some polls suggested she was in the neighborhood of 35%. A few polls, albeit not particularly reputable perhaps, had here down at 24 and 26% early on. This just shows how much that name-recognition is a factor.

In the closing weeks before the election however, through ads and other methods of getting herself out there, she’s done a good job of closing that recognition gap. The question remains whether the climate is a good one for Republicans in the State. On one hand, Gov. Youngkin has a positive approval rating by about 3–5 points, depending on which poll is actually covering his favorability. A Roanoke College survey suggested a number as high as 59% but they’re also one of those polls that had Sears down under 30% early in the governor race. So who knows whether that’s accurate, and I’m not about to go into their methodology to point out the flaws that are inevitably there.

The government shutdown in DC will also play a role in the governor election, as well as in House of Delegate races in northern Virginia (at least. the impact could well go beyond that region, but these are people that are directly affected by it, as many work in the federal government, and as an aside, are the reason in part why Virginia has trended blue the last decade and a half). So in some ways, peoples general perceptions of Democrats and Republicans, and of Trump, may play a larger than usual role in deciding the Governor race as well as down ballot races.

There are several races in the House of Delegates to keep an eye on. Republicans did not fair well in 2023, losing the House of Delegates to end with a margin -2. But 2023 was perhaps an awkward year. It was the first year Virginians could weigh in on the recent (2022) overturning of Roe v. Wade, at least for state-level offices. Overturning Roe led to a hysteric outcry from the radical pro-abortion left, and many people sadly bought into the hysteria. 3 years later, the sentiment may still be there to some extent but it has significantly toned down. Weighing the possibilities of outcomes based on prior elections is difficult, and with only one cycle since redistricting, the question remains whether ‘23 was just a bad year for Republicans, or was it a harbinger for an extended period of time for difficulties for the Party?

I parsed the 100 different races for House of delegates, and compared this the current situation involving candidacy, etc. In 2023, 6 Republican victories and 2 Democrat victories were within 5%, 4 Republican victories were between 5 and 10%, compared to 3 for Democrats, and an equal number (5) were somewhere between 10 and 15%. This year, there are 5 open seats, all currently held by Republicans, but 4 of which were won by Republicans by greater than 15% last cycle.

How does this factor into projections? 8 seats are going to be among the most highly contested. Of which only 2 are Democrats. For Republicans to take control, they’d have to keep all 6 of their seats in this category, win the 2 Democrat-held seats, AND win a third seat. Only in a very positive year for Republicans would this likely happen.

Democrat approval/favorability ratings are in the toilets across the board. But that’s nationwide. As far as Virginia is concerned, Trump’s approval rating is under water by a significant amount (although I don’t particularly care for state-by-state approval polling because there isn’t a wide field of polls being done. One poll is useful, maybe, to some extent, but comparing their results to other polling is much more useful and insightful.) I haven’t come across reliable numbers for a measure as to whether Virginians are more favorably inclined towards Democrats or the reverse, but it is safe to assume that more left-leaning northern Virginia is more likely to blame the shutdown and any other troubles they perceive to be the fault of Republicans and Trump. If that is true across the state is anyone’s guess.

Sears’ best bet for victory is to shore up support in southeastern Virginia (no pun intended). For example, in Suffolk county, Youngkin lost by 4.8% with 36k votes cast. Sears likely needs to improve the performance in this area of the state while maintaining high (Republican) voter turnout to balance against the likelihood of a higher voter turnout in Fairfax and Prince William’s counties. One thing I will be looking at is the results from Loudon County, which in part propelled Youngkin to victory 4 years ago inasmuch as the margin there was much less in favor of Democrats (11%) than it has been previously. It remains to be seen whether the gender ideology scandals that helped Youngkin win, and with it a focus on parental rights in education, as well as how these issues have been to some degree in the national spotlight will continue to help Republicans cut the margin for Democrats here (and possibly elsewhere too, of course).

In the end, Virginia is a purple state that has a blue tint, but it still is a purple state. Either side could win, and there’s even a possibility of a split result, given the likelihood of Jones’ losing. The Virginia State Senate remains in the hands of Democrats, and Sears will have to contend with them in the first two years of her administration if she does indeed win. Republicans aren’t likely to gain more than 5 seats in the House of Delegates, which sets up a narrow and fractious next 2 years of government should either Sears’ win or the House of Delegates fall into the hands of Republicans, or both.