World (Trade) War

The least bad options

*Disclaimer / Disclosure*

Yikes.

“It’s always darkest…before it turns pitch black.”

- John McCain

“Dips can get dippier… Gamma works two ways.”

- Chris Irons

“Short-term pain to be paid off in long-term pain.”

- Cliff Asness

“This is not a buy-the-dip opportunity. It’s a sell the dip opportunity.”

- Boaz Weinstein

Picking through the carnage, I find a number of country markets that are far cheaper than the US with the minimal 10% tariff. I’m most focused on Turkey, Argentina, and New Zealand each of which has a comparative advantage to other trading partners in this tariff regime (ironically comparative advantage being completely misunderstood by the tariff author). iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) is one convenient way to get Turkey exposure. My favorite way to get exposure to Milei and Argentina remains YPF (YPF). This month could be an ideal time to take advantage of New Zealand’s newly expanded golden Visa program.

Caveat

The higher tariffs could be negotiated down.

Conclusion

TUR and YPF look like opportunities compared with the US equity markets. New Zealand looks like the best residency plan B.

TL; DR

Time to look abroad, especially to cheaper country markets with lower tariff threats.