Belgorod: Can We Call It a Civil War?

Well, operations continue in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. Last year, the units retreated after a week. So, this year, it seems a tad more serious. So this emerged in the morning. The data indicates it’s a significant fight, and given the Russians claimed they crushed this in the first thirty-six hours, that is part of the story.

The information below matters. I am including the raw data as well. It’s not mine, but definitely, there are valid conclusions here:

OSINT researcher Naalsio publishes documented Ukrainian and Russian losses in the Belgorod direction. Ukraine lost 7 units of equipment, all 7 units irretrievably. Russia lost 4 pieces of equipment, of which only 1 was irretrievable. Naalsio also provides a list of possible, but not definitively confirmed Ukrainian losses in equipment (third plate). This is another 6 units of equipment.

These data clearly show the scale of ongoing hostilities. Considering the stretch of time and the fact that the second week of the Limited Military Operation on Russian territory begins, this, of course, is not a raid, but a full-fledged combined arms operation in which many forces and means are involved. The exact purpose of this operation is not yet clear, although a certain outline of what is happening is emerging, especially in conjunction with the ongoing strikes into the depths of Russia.

I remind you that the ongoing strikes are against much of the oil infrastructure. Russians cannot easily replace that equipment. One strike was about 900 kilometers in. That’s a pretty deep strategic strike. So, what else is going on at the border? Again, I will remind you Russia said it crushed this:

16 civilians of the Belgorod region were killed and 98 were injured as a result of shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a week.

Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced this at a meeting of the Presidium of the General Council of United Russia.

“In total, 16 civilians were killed and 98 people were injured in a week. Including a boy who just lost his arm during shelling. The tension is quite high,” TASS quotes the governor.

This summary is sent through a local channel. They have been posting photos of the damage, too. But more critically, this:

About 9 thousand children will be taken out of the Belgorod region due to shelling by the Ukrainian Armed Forces , said Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

Why children specifically? This is the way Russians think. They have kidnapped 700,000 Ukrainian children since the war began. Evacuating these children is a way to prevent Ukraine from doing this to Russian children because Russians are doing that. It’s mirror thinking. Removing kids from an increasingly gray zone is not a bad idea. But this is not why Russians are doing this. They fear Ukraine will do to their children what they have been busy doing themselves.

Now let me switch gears slightly to ATESH. They have been penetrating, so they claim, state structures of the Russian Federation. What is of interest, assuming this is the case, is how much Russia has returned to a command economy:

ATESH will publish secret documents on the production of cruise missiles in the Russian Federation X-32.

We previously reported that our agent infiltrated the Dubna Machine-Building Plant and obtained secret documents related to the production of Kh-32 cruise missiles. At the same time, we learned about production plans and the real capabilities of the enterprise. The plant did not meet its production plan for 2022. https://t.me/atesh_ua/2971

This time we have obtained more details and are ready to share them with the public.

The director of the department of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation, Peregudov, demands that the director of the enterprise increase the production volumes of this type of missile.

By 2024, it is planned to produce 224❗ missiles.

According to our information, they are already behind schedule, as was the case in previous years.

We actively promote this!

https://t.me/atesh_ua/4014

Anytime you see this, they did attach the documents. It’s interesting how all of these match the Soviet era. Here is the translation of page 1, with the original:

RECEIVED 11/07/2022 at 07–40.

from Moscow Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia HP 3423 SECRET OUT OF QUEUE

TO THE GENERAL DIRECTOR OF JSC “GOSMKB “RADUGA” NAMED AFTER A.Y. BEREZNYAK” S.A. BOGATIKOV FOR THE GENERAL DIRECTOR OF JSC “DUBNENSKY MACHINE-BUILDING PLANT” NAMED AFTER N.P. FEDEROV”

A.L. WHITE

TO THE GENERAL DIRECTOR OF FSUE “VNII “CENTER” S.I. DOVGUCHITS

DEAR ALEXEY LEONIDOVICH!

IN ACCORDANCE WITH SUBPARAGRAPH A OF POINT 2 OF THE INSTRUCTION OF THE DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, MINISTER OF INDUSTRY AND TRADE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION D.V. MANTUROV DATED NOVEMBER 1, 2022 NR MD-P7–1356SS WE SEND AN EXTRACT FROM THE MONTHLY SCHEDULE OF DELIVERY OF PARTICULARLY DEMANDED BBCT SAMPLES B 2023, APPROVED BY THE DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION OF INDUSTRY AND TOP GOVLI MINISTER OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION d.v. MANTUROV IN PART OF PRODUCED BY YOUR ORGANIZATION AND

ITS SUBSIDIARIES DEPENDENT COMPANIES OF THE AFST SAMPLES: X-32 AIR-LAUNED CRUISED MISSILE “AIR-SURFACE” — TOTAL IN 2023 80 PCS., 2 PCS. IN FEBRUARY, 3 pcs. IN MARCH, 6 PCS. IN APRIL, 6 PCS. IN MAY, 8 PCS. IN JUNE, 9 PCS. IN JULY, 9 PCS. IN AUGUST, 9 PCS. IN SEPTEMBER, 9 pcs. in OCTOBER, 9 PCS. IN NOVEMBER;

07.11.22

page 1

This is a window we usually don’t expect. It’s a telling window into the way things are now done. It is precisely as they were during the Soviet period.

If there is interest, I will make all these available. It’s only six pages. I have also discovered how to export documents into less annoying text documents.

Now, as to whether this is already a civil war? Some Russians think so:

“I know for sure that Russia has already lost this war.” Leva Bi-2 — about the consequences of the conflict, the state of Russian society and why the group will not go to the Russian Federation.

The founder of the Bi-2 group, Yegor Bortnik (Leva Bi-2), who spent a week in a Thai prison, gave an interview to Khodorkovsky LIVE. Russian diplomats were involved in the detention of the musicians, Moscow Region wrote . As a result, the group members were released through the mediation of the Israeli Embassy.

“I know for sure that Russia has already lost this war,” the group leader said in an interview with the channel. “I knew this on the first day of the war. Because this is not the war after which the long-awaited peace comes. Still, they expect that the Ukrainians will win and then something will definitely change in Russia. It seems to me that the worst is just beginning. This is a civil war , it has simply turned into a bloody massacre , such that the hair stands on end . I don’t think this war can just be over and everyone will forget about it. The consequences will be catastrophic for Russia .”

Lyova cannot imagine returning to Russia in the foreseeable future: I can’t yet. I understand that there are, of course, a lot of good people (in Russia) who cannot leave for various reasons. That is, they live there and have an opinion that is no different from mine. But from the very first days I was faced with the fact that, for example, my notary simply refused to work with me. And this was already the moment when I felt some kind of disgusting feeling . Everything, so to speak, is ambiguous in the sense of society. And I don’t know how I can live in this society now.”

“ And the past was taken away from us ,” adds the musician. — It’s impossible to watch movies. You turn on the movie and see people who have turned into monsters . Some people, you had good friendly relations with them, they suddenly (look at you) with some kind of frenzy…”

In their work, the Bi-2 musicians did not directly speak out against the war, but many fans saw an anti-war motive in the song “Lullaby,” which contains the line: “The animal world is initially cruel, but it is not the animals who pull the trigger, but people.”

These musicians are out of Russia. They are also Jewish, which adds a layer. But the fact that they are now using the language of civil war, added to what Russian units are doing in Belgorod and Kursk, tells you we may be ever so maddeningly closer to that ice flow accelerating.

Oh, and before I forget. I have referred to Russia as a state that runs on patronage. This is an example, not that it benefited the now-dead Lieutenant. And yes, I am working on a piece on patronage and how it affects both Gaza and Russia. We all need to take those Western glasses off when looking at these two conflicts:

Kozinka, Belgorod region. The death of the colonel’s son and unsuccessful attempts to recapture the border village.

The events described below occurred in n.p. Kozinka, Graivoronsky district, Belgorod region. The village is located on the border of Belgorod and Sumy regions.

As you know, the battles for this territory have been going on for a week. The Russian Armed Forces are trying to knock out the enemy groups that came there from the village.

In addition to the border service of the FSB of the Russian Federation, units of the 49th Combined Arms Army are responsible for the protection of this section of the border (the main forces of the army are concentrated in the Kherson direction, there is a part of the reserve, the “lucky” who did not get to the Aleshki-Kakhovka section).

On 15.03.2024 in Kozinka, a UAZ “Patriot” car with servicemen of the 49th OA was ambushed. The car was shot by the DRG of the so-called “Russian Volunteer Corps”. In the car were:

- Alexey Olegovich Kolotov, Senior Lieutenant;

- Immortal Nikita Romanovich, Lieutenant;

- Daniil Stanislavovich Shorikov, junior sergeant.

Immortal and Shorikov died on the spot. Kolotov was wounded and captured. According to available information, it has now been exported to the territory of Ukraine.

Particular attention should be paid to Lieutenant Nikita the Immortal. Initially, the officer was to serve as part of the 32nd Engineer Regiment in the Kherson direction. However, under the patronage of his father, he was transferred to a safer Belgorod region. It happens when your father is the head of the army’s engineering troops — Colonel Bessmertny Roman Vasilyevich.

Meanwhile, units of the Russian Armed Forces are trying to displace the DRG forces with artillery shelling and calls of small mobile groups of special forces.

One of these attempts occurred yesterday, 18.03.2024.

A group of the 2nd separate special purpose brigade (military unit 64044, Pskov) consisting of 10 people entered into battle with “RDK” units. Subsequently, the 2nd group had to retreat. As part of the group:

- Alexey Ivanovich Vasilyev, lieutenant, group commander — wounded, evacuated;

- Goglev Evgeny Vasilyevich, senior sergeant — died;

- Korepov Maxim Dmitrievich, ensign — died;

- Daniil Andreevich Kozikov, corporal — wounded, evacuated;

- Kretsul Vitaly Vladimirovich, corporal — wounded, evacuated;

- Tabakov Ramil Lipatovich, private — wounded, evacuated.

Fighting for the village continues.

This first tells us that they are sending better-trained troops. So, the RDK is a real threat. But it’s the Colonel’s son that caught my attention. Most service people want to punch their cards, especially in combat arms. That is the military euphemism for doing a combat tour. It’s essential for advancement, especially if you intend to make this a career.

This breaks down in societies where patronage is the name of the day. It’s not so much about skill but who you know. This translates to advancement beyond your actual talent, getting jobs in the civil service, or even getting retirement benefits above and beyond what you earned.

We used to have something like this in the United States. It ended with making civil service appointments exam-based, not by who you know or voted for. We ended this in the 1880s with reforms in New York City, where the Democratic machine was a patronage-based system.

Incidentally, Donald Trump has hinted repeatedly that he intends to return the United States to a patronage system. It’s worth remembering that because this is what he means when he says he wants to clean the government of disloyal people to him.

Russia is still there. Why this young officer did not go to the front lines reflects how rigid their military thinking is. And quite frankly, senior officers are not necessarily there because of skill. They are there because of who they know.

Yes, military organizations are also political, but ones where patronage is rife are far worse.