HTX Ventures Weekly Recap ( 29 July 2026–4 August )

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three dissenters preferred an increase. U.S. growth slowed while domestic demand remained firm and purchase-price inflation accelerated; July manufacturing strengthened despite high input costs. The mix leaves little room for rapid easing. China returned to manufacturing contraction, while the Bank of Japan retained a hawkish bias.

Crypto stabilized unevenly. Bitcoin gained about 1% while Ethereum lost 1.65%; BTC ETF flows turned positive, but ETH products remained net negative and the final BTC figure remained provisional. More importantly, cumulative net USD flows were still approximately -$893M through 3 August, driven by roughly -$1.04B of fiat-backed stablecoin outflows.

For HTX Ventures, the week argues for selectivity. Strategy is managing Bitcoin alongside a more complex liability stack, while Coinbase is expanding toward recurring services and stablecoin infrastructure. Institutional rails remain attractive, but weak liquidity breadth argues against underwriting broad token appreciation.

1/ Macro Markets Sentiment

U.S. Economy

> The Federal Reserve held rates, but the vote revealed a more hawkish tail

On 29 July, the FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%. Three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, while the statement described activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated partly because of energy-related supply shocks. The split limits confidence in near-term easing and keeps duration-sensitive crypto valuations exposed to inflation data.

> June consumption remained resilient while inflation slowed sequentially

Personal income rose 0.2% in June and personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%. Headline PCE prices fell 0.1% month over month and core PCE rose 0.1%, but the year-over-year readings remained 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. The combination supports nominal activity but does not yet give the Fed a clean path toward rapid easing.

> Second-quarter growth slowed, but the underlying demand and inflation mix remained firm

Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first. The headline slowdown partly reflected weaker government spending and faster imports, while real final sales to private domestic purchasers accelerated to 3.9%. At the same time, the gross domestic purchases price index rose at a 5.7% annualized rate. This was not a clean recession signal: private demand strengthened even as the broader price impulse worsened, reinforcing the Fed’s reluctance to ease.

> U.S. manufacturing accelerated, but input-cost and supply-chain pressure remained elevated

The July manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, its strongest reading since May 2022, with production and employment both expanding. However, prices remained high and supplier delivery times lengthened; survey respondents continued to cite tariffs, Middle East risk and component shortages. The direction is pro-growth but not disinflationary, particularly where AI, defense and electronics demand is competing for constrained inputs.

> Labor demand was stable rather than reaccelerating

June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million, while hires, quits and layoffs also remained broadly steady. The release points to normalization rather than a sudden labor-market break and leaves the Fed balancing firm activity against persistent inflation pressure.

Rest of the World

> China’s manufacturing sector returned to contraction

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell below the expansion threshold in July, while new orders weakened more sharply. The deterioration suggests the second half began with softer domestic and industrial demand, limiting confidence in a broad global-growth rebound and increasing the importance of any additional policy support from Beijing.

> The Bank of Japan held rates but retained a tightening bias

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 1% after June’s increase, while emphasizing upside risks to underlying inflation and leaving scope for further hikes. Combined with intervention concerns around the yen, the decision keeps global carry trades exposed to abrupt currency and funding-cost adjustments — a relevant volatility channel for leveraged crypto positioning.

> Energy and shipping risk continued to transmit geopolitical uncertainty into financial conditions

Brent fell sharply over the week and ended near $79.06 per barrel. The decline reduced the immediate energy-inflation premium, but it should be read as repricing rather than proof that Middle East supply and shipping risks have disappeared.

Commodities

Gold Spot (XAU/USD)

Source: TradingView; XAU/USD weekly market data through 4 August 2026.

Gold finished near $4,100/oz and was broadly flat over the week. The late rebound, alongside lower oil, suggests demand for portfolio hedging persisted even as the immediate energy premium eased.

Brent Crude

Source: TradingView; Brent crude weekly market data through 4 August 2026.

Brent finished near $79.06/barrel after a pronounced weekly decline from the high-$80s. Lower crude is directionally supportive for inflation and liquidity, but the speed of the move also signals sensitivity to geopolitical headlines.

HTX Ventures Angle: Falling oil reduces one near-term inflation pressure, but firm U.S. private demand, elevated manufacturing input costs and the Fed’s hawkish split keep the liquidity regime restrictive. China’s slowdown weakens the global demand impulse, while Japan’s tightening bias creates carry-trade risk. Underwriting should favor recurring-revenue infrastructure, compliance and asset-servicing models over businesses that require rapid multiple expansion or continuously cheap leverage.

2/ Capital Movement

> Available spot-ETF rows (29 July-4 August)

Source: Coinglass; BTC&ETH spot-ETF flows , 29 July-4 August

Bitcoin spot-ETF flows turned positive over the week, led by IBIT through 3 August.

Ethereum spot-ETF flows remained negative over the week. Redemptions on 29 July and 3 August outweighed inflows on 30–31 July and 4 August, showing that regulated demand remained asset-selective.

> Fiat-backed stablecoin and aggregate USD flows (through 3 August)

Source: SoSoValue; seven-day USD inflows through 3 August 2026.

Fiat-backed stablecoin cumulative net flows were approximately -$1.04B, while cumulative ETF flows were approximately +$148.75M. Together they produced approximately -$893.32M of cumulative net USD outflows into cryptocurrency markets. The latest daily flow reversed positive to approximately +$129.07M on 3 August, but one positive session did not repair the weekly liquidity contraction.

> Crypto Fear & Greed finished at 38 (Fear)

Sentiment remained in Fear territory at the end of the week. The reading is consistent with weak altcoin breadth and negative cumulative USD liquidity despite Bitcoin’s modest gain.

HTX Ventures Angle: ETF demand alone overstated the quality of the rebound. The more complete liquidity picture remained negative because stablecoin outflows exceeded ETF inflows. This favors institutional rails and execution products that monetize allocation shifts, while arguing against underwriting broad token appreciation as the base case.

3/ Crypto Market Performance (29 July — 4 August)

> Global crypto market capitalization softened during the week

Source: SoSoValue; global crypto market-cap and volume weekly data.

Global crypto market capitalization moved lower overall, with a brief rebound failing to establish sustained breadth. The weekly direction indicates fragile risk appetite rather than a decisive market-wide recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC): approximately +1.0% week over week

Source: CoinMarketCap; BTC weekly market data through 4 August 2026.

Current Price: approximately $64,380

Fluctuation Analysis: Bitcoin rose above $65,000 early in the week, fell toward $62,500 during the 31 July-3 August drawdown, and recovered above $64,000 by 4 August. The recovery coincided with improving BTC ETF demand, but provisional final-day flows and negative aggregate USD liquidity limit the strength of the signal.

Support Level: approximately $62,400-$62,800, the repeated weekly trough zone.

Resistance Level: approximately $64,800-$65,200, where the early-window rally failed.

Ethereum (ETH): approximately -1.65% week over week

Source: CoinMarketCap; ETH weekly market data through 4 August 2026.

Current Price: approximately $1,875

Fluctuation Analysis: Ethereum failed to hold the $1,900-$1,925 area, repeatedly tested the mid-$1,800s and ended below its weekly starting point. Negative net ETF flow helps explain its underperformance relative to Bitcoin.

Support Level: approximately $1,825-$1,850.

Resistance Level: approximately $1,900-$1,925.

Altcoin Market Cap

Source: CoinGecko; altcoin market capitalization seven-day view.

Altcoin market capitalization fell sharply into 2 August and then recovered, but it ended below the week’s peak. The direction shows that risk appetite improved from the trough without developing into broad, sustained participation.

Sector Performance

Source: CoinGecko; category performance for the week through 4 August 2026.

Weekly category performance favored tokenized assets, Layer 2, tokenized money-market funds, tokenized treasuries and quantum-resistant assets. Abrupt moves in several categories may reflect classification or constituent effects, so the more reliable signal is thematic: market attention remained concentrated in onchain financial assets and security infrastructure.

HTX Ventures Angle: Bitcoin’s resilience, Ethereum’s relative weakness and the narrow sector leadership point to selective institutional positioning rather than broad expansion. RWA and post-quantum themes merit diligence, but investability should be tested through issuer quality, assets under management, active users, recurring fees and technical deployment — not category-level price spikes.

4/ Corporate Actions

> Strategy formalized active balance-sheet management alongside its Bitcoin treasury

In its 30 July results, Strategy reported 843,775 BTC holdings and a $3.75B USD reserve intended to cover more than two years of preferred dividends and debt interest. It also disclosed a discounted repurchase of STRC preferred shares, established a $1B MSTR share-repurchase authorization and confirmed that its Bitcoin Monetization Program had funded part of its preferred dividends through year-to-date Bitcoin sales. The direction is more important than any single transaction: Strategy is no longer only an accumulation vehicle; it is actively managing liquidity, liabilities and access to capital around a large Bitcoin position.

> Coinbase’s Q2 disclosure showed a broader shift beyond spot trading

Coinbase reported that subscription and services represented 48% of Q2 net revenue, while balances of USDC held in Coinbase products reached a quarterly average of $20B. It also said prediction-market revenue exceeded a $100M annualized run rate. These are company-reported metrics, but together they show the strategic direction: Coinbase is expanding from a crypto exchange toward a multi-product financial platform spanning stablecoins, payments, derivatives, prediction markets and onchain settlement.

HTX Ventures Angle: Public crypto companies are increasingly becoming hybrids of capital-management vehicles and financial infrastructure platforms. For treasury companies, diligence should stress-test preferred obligations, refinancing access, dilution and the circumstances that could force asset sales. For exchanges, the key question is whether licenses, custody, settlement and distribution can convert new products into durable recurring revenue rather than merely shifting transaction volume between categories.

5/ VC & Funding

Funding activity covered eight in-window projects between 29 July and 3 August. Three transactions disclosed amounts totaling $52.0M, while five did not disclose their size. The concentration of disclosed capital in one payments company means the subtotal should be read as directional evidence rather than a complete measure of weekly financing volume.

Source: RootData

> Yellow Card: $40M strategic financing

Yellow Card accounted for most of the disclosed capital. Blockchain Capital and Polychain were among the investors listed for the round, alongside additional participants. The size and strategic format point to continued investor interest in crypto-enabled payments and emerging-market financial distribution, where licensing, local settlement connectivity and transaction economics remain the central underwriting questions.

> Bundle: $5.5M seed financing

Bundle’s seed round listed Ethereal Ventures and Further Ventures among its investors, together with five additional participants. As an early-stage financing, the key diligence questions are whether the product solves a recurring infrastructure need, how quickly it can convert ecosystem relationships into usage and whether token incentives are necessary to sustain adoption.

> Perceptron Network: $6.5M strategic financing

Perceptron Network’s strategic round listed P2 Ventures and Selini Capital among a broader investor group. The deal adds to continuing capital formation around decentralized AI and data infrastructure. Commercial demand, data quality, supply-side incentive costs and the defensibility of the network’s data pipeline are more important than the thematic label alone.

HTX Ventures Angle: The week’s funding mix favored strategic infrastructure and distribution rather than broad late-stage expansion. Yellow Card dominated disclosed capital, while Ripple’s participation in both Liquido and ZILO suggests strategic interest in extending payments or liquidity infrastructure through targeted ecosystem investments. HTX should prioritize primary diligence on revenue quality, regulatory permissions, distribution leverage and whether strategic investors provide measurable commercial access. The decentralized-AI and seed-stage infrastructure deals merit attention, but their defensibility should be tested through customer demand and unit economics rather than narrative momentum.

6/ HTX Ventures Portfolio News

> Monad moved into third place by active DeFi TVL and added Sonar-based token-sale infrastructure

By 31 July, Monad ranked third among chains by active DeFi TVL, behind Ethereum and Solana. During the week, the ecosystem also announced that token sales could run on Monad through Sonar, with TownSquare positioned as the first sale. Sonar provides self-hosted onchain sale contracts together with KYC/KYB, wallet screening and configurable settlement. The two developments broaden Monad’s institutional-finance proposition: capital is becoming more actively deployed across its DeFi ecosystem while projects gain a compliant-oriented route for primary token distribution.

HTX Ventures Angle: Monad’s stronger active-liquidity ranking and addition of token-sale rails suggest an ecosystem moving beyond infrastructure readiness toward capital formation and financial-product distribution. Diligence should track durable non-incentivized liquidity, the quality of projects using the sale infrastructure, compliance execution and whether new capital-formation activity converts into sustained onchain usage.

7/ Watchlists (5 August — 11 August 2026)

Macro & Regulatory

7 August: U.S. July employment report — watch payroll growth, unemployment, wage inflation and the effect on the Fed’s divided reaction function.

Energy and shipping: Monitor whether Brent stabilizes below $80 or rebuilds a geopolitical premium; renewed upside would complicate the improving sequential inflation signal.

Crypto-Specific

ETF settlement: Confirm the missing 4 August IBIT row and whether positive BTC demand persists while ETH flows recover.

Stablecoin liquidity: Watch whether the 3 August +$129.07M daily inflow extends long enough to reverse the approximately -$1.04B seven-day cumulative outflow.

Funding follow-through: Monitor whether the week’s strategic investments translate into product integrations, distribution agreements or measurable ecosystem usage.

References

1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026, July 29). Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm

2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026, July 30). Personal income and outlays, June 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026

3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026). Schedule of selected releases for 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm

4. Strategy Inc. (2026, July 30). Strategy announces second quarter 2026 financial results. https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results_07-30-2026

5. Coinbase Global, Inc. (2026, July 30). Q2'26 earnings deck. https://s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/Q2-26-Earnings-Deck.pdf

6. CryptoRank. (2026, July 31). Monad active DeFi TVL chain ranking.

7. Monad Foundation. (2026, July 30). Token sales on Monad through Sonar; TownSquare named as the first sale. https://x.com/monad

8. Echo. (2026). Sonar developer documentation. https://docs.echo.xyz/

9. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2026, July 30). GDP (advance estimate), second quarter 2026. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026

10. Institute for Supply Management. (2026, August 3). July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/july/

11. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026, August 4). Job openings and labor turnover, June 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

12. National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2026, July 31). Purchasing managers index, July 2026.

13. Bank of Japan. (2026, July 31). Statement on monetary policy and outlook for economic activity and prices. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/