Argentina’s Fertility Collapse: From Replacement Level to 1.2 in Under a Decade

In 2016, the country’s total fertility rate was still around replacement level (2.13 children per woman). Today, according to the latest estimates, it has fallen to approximately 1.23.

Preliminary data from several provinces suggests that the decline may continue, potentially reaching less 1.2 in 2025.

As a result of this rapid transition, Argentina is approaching a critical demographic threshold. In 2024, the country registered only 36.730 more births than deaths, indicating that the country will likely enter negative natural growth this year, if it hasn’t already entered it by 2025.

This graph shows the evolution of the fertility rate among Argentine women from 1960 to 2024.

As shown in the graph, Argentina maintained relatively high fertility rates throughout the 1960-1980s. Fertility began to decline gradually during the 1990s, but the country remained above replacement level for many years.

The most dramatic change occurred after 2014. Within less than a decade, Argentina’s fertility rate fell from above replacement level to one of the lowest in the region and a entire world

Argentina in a Regional and Global Context

Argentina’s fertility decline did not occur in isolation. Most countries in the Southern Cone and suranding surrounding areas have experienced falling fertility rates over the past decade. However, Argentina stands out for the speed of its transition from replacement-level fertility to one of the lowest fertility rates in the region.

As shown in the graph, all countries in the region except Brazil have experienced a notable decline since 2014. The most significant declines are observed in Argentina and Chile.

Why Has Fertility Fallen So Fast?

There is no single explanation for such a rapid decline. Instead, several demographic, social, and economic factors appear to have contributed to the trend.

One important change has been the increase in the average age at which women have their first child. While the average age was around 22 in the 1990s, it has risen to approximately 29 today, reflecting a broader tendency to postpone family formation.

Another significant factor has been the sharp decline in teenage pregnancies, which have fallen by roughly 65% over the past decade.

The legalization of abortion in 2020 may also have had some impact. According to recent figures, 79.186 abortions were recorded, representing a substantial number of pregnancies. However, the extent of its contribution to the overall fertility decline remains a matter of debate.

Finally, Argentina’s long-standing economic difficulties, including recurring crises, high inflation, and political instability, may have encouraged some individuals and couples to delay or reconsider having children.

Demographic consequences

Demographic consequences, although not immediately apparent, can have significant long-term effects, especially if birth rates continue to decline and emigration exceeds immigration. Under these circumstances, Argentina could face a substantial labor shortage in the coming decades.

Furthermore, as mentioned earlier, Argentina recorded only 36.730 more births than deaths in 2024. Current trends suggest that 2025 could become the first year in which deaths outnumber births, marking a historic demographic turning point for the country.

Conclusions

Argentina is experiencing one of the most significant demographic shifts in its modern history. The marked decline in the birth rate observed in recent years is not just a statistical trend, but a transformation that could significantly change the country’s economic and social future.

Sources:

DEIS

INDEC

Wikipedia 1

Wikipedia 2