Record Highs Don’t Always Mean a Market Top

Photo by Meriç Dağlı on Unsplash

Based on data from 1990 to 2025, the Nasdaq 100’s 19th new high of the year — reached on June 2 this year — has historically been followed by positive average and median returns across every measured horizon, from 20 to 250 trading days.

The subsequent gains ranged from 0.4% to 30.9%, while the probability of a positive return over these periods ranged from 71% to 93% (Figure).

In other words, clusters of record highs have not historically signaled an imminent reversal. On the contrary, the evidence suggests that momentum has typically persisted, with the index maintaining a high probability of further gains over the following months — and, in some cases, into the next year.

Historical patterns are never a guarantee of future performance. Still, with the Nasdaq 100 continuing to set record highs, the June peak appears more likely to have been an interim high rather than the terminal peak for the year.