The State of Critical Minerals: Global Challenges, Outlook and Market Landscape (2025 2026)

Introduction

Critical minerals (e.g., copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, rare‑earth elements, manganese and platinum group metals) underpin batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy systems, data centres, artificial intelligence and defence technologies. Demand for these minerals is rising rapidly and is expected to increase about 1.5 × between 2024 and 2040. EVs use up to six times more minerals than internal‑combustion cars, while wind and solar systems require 6–13× more minerals per unit of capacity than gas‑fired power plants. Supply, however, is concentrated in a small number of countries, and long development timelines mean that bottlenecks and price volatility are likely to persist. This report synthesises a comprehensive range of sources to outline the current state of the critical‑mineral market, identify major players and prospects, and provide a six‑month market overview (December 2025 — June 2026).

Global market overview

Rising demand and supply concentration

• Energy transition drivers: Demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare‑earth elements is being driven by EVs, grid storage, wind and solar installations, data centres and military electronics. J.P. Morgan expects global lithium demand to grow ~16 % year‑on‑year in 2026, with EVs and energy‑storage systems accounting for most incremental demand, while copper demand is forecast to grow ~2.6 % year‑on‑year.
• Supply concentration: China dominates much of the supply chain: 69 % of rare‑earth mining, 91 % of refining and 94 % of magnet production. For tungsten, about 80 % of processing capacity is in China, causing European manufacturers to face export delays. The U.S. imports >50 % of its lithium and >67 % of its rare‑earth compounds, while the EU imports 97 % of its magnesium from China and 99 % of boron from Turkey.
• Pipeline shortages: Many new mine projects are shrinking and development takes 7–10 years. Analysts warn of a supply deficit in copper and lithium by 2035. Lithium demand could rise from 1.2 Mt LCE in 2024 to 2.5–3.3 Mt by 2030; supply shortages could produce a 38 % gap by 2035.
• Price volatility: By early 2026, prices for some minerals have corrected sharply from 2023 peaks (e.g., lithium carbonate down ~70 %), yet structural tightness remains because supply has not kept pace with demand. In Germany, the tungsten price tripled between 2025 and early 2026, while lithium prices rose from US$8 000/t in mid‑2025 to >US$22 000/t by February 2026.

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