GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

3 October 2025 By Bob Francis, Managing Editor Go Full Throttle Racing News

CONCORD, NC — This weekend marks the eighth running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course (Roval), the sixth and final road course race of the season, and the only road course in the Playoffs.

Four of the five previous Charlotte Roval winners are current Playoff drivers: Ryan Blaney (2018), Chase Elliott (2019 & 2020), Kyle Larson (2021 & 2024), and Christopher Bell (2022). The winner of the Charlotte Roval went on to win the championship twice: Chase Elliott (2020) and Kyle Larson (2021)

Only twice has the winner of the Round of 12 finale been in a must-win situation: 2014 (Brad Keselowski — Talladega) and 2022 (Christopher Bell — Charlotte Roval).

NASCAR Cup Series Bank of America ROVAL 400

Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course — 2.28 Mile Asphalt Road Course

Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET

The Purse: $9,797,935

TV: USA, 2:30 p.m. ET Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90) Distance: 248.52 miles (109 Laps) — Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 25) — Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 50) — Final Stage (Ends on Lap 109)

Last year, it was Kyle Larson with the win at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Bank of America ROVAL 2024 (Image Credit: Meg Oliphant_Getty Images)

Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course Storylines and Insights:

The Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course has always hosted a cutoff race in the Playoffs, having first served as the final race in the Round of 16 (2018–19) and then the finale to the Round of 12 (2020-present).

Six of the seven races on the Charlotte Roval were won from a top-10 starting position but only one from a top-five (Chase Elliott won from second in 2020).

· Ford has not won at the Charlotte Roval since the track’s first Cup race in 2018 (Ryan Blaney), their second longest drought among current Cup tracks.

· Four of the seven Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course races had the last lead change in the final eight laps, including one last lap pass (2018).

· Only one Charlotte Roval race has ended in overtime (2022).

· Six of the seven Charlotte Roval winners did not lead in Stage 1, and Stage 1 of the last three Roval races went caution free.

· Shane van Gisbergen can become the second driver to win five consecutive Cup road course races, joining Jeff Gordon (6 straight wins between 1997–2000).

Shane van Gisbergen logged his first top 10 finish on an oval last week at Kansas Speedway (Image Credit: Nikolai Culp / GFT Digital)

· Shane van Gisbergen can become the first driver to get their first six Cup wins on road courses.

· Shane van Gisbergen has led 52% of road course laps this year, run inside the top-five for 84% of laps and inside the top-10 for 94% of laps.

· Shane van Gisbergen’s average finish of 8.18 on road courses is third best all-time among drivers with 4+ starts, behind only Hall of Famers Fireball Roberts (2.78) and Buck Baker (7.70).

· Two of Shane van Gisbergen’s wins this year had the largest margins of victory for road courses since 1988 (Mexico City — 16.567 seconds, Watkins Glen — 11.116 seconds).

· Shane van Gisbergen’s first four Cup poles all came on road courses, a fifth would mark the first time a driver won their first five Cup poles at the same track-type since 1996 (Ted Musgrave — short tracks).

· Five of the last 14 road course races were won by drivers getting their first road course win.

· Chevrolet drivers won 10 of the last 12 road course races and five of the seven Roval races.

· Christopher Bell finished in the top-five in five of the last six road course races, including three runner-ups and a win at COTA this year.

· Kyle Larson has the worst average finish among full-time drivers on road courses this season (31.0).

· Chase Elliott leads all drivers with 11 top-five finishes in the Next Gen car on road courses but none of his seven road course wins came in the Next Gen car.

Chase Elliott in the Kansas Speedway Media Center for the Winner’s post-race press conference (Image Credit: Bob Francis / GFT Digital)

· Shane van Gisbergen (8.18) and Chase Elliott (9.27) are the only two drivers to have a top-10 average finish on road courses in the Next Gen car.

· Ryan Blaney is on a 23-race streak without a top-five finish on road courses.

· Brad Keselowski is on a 20-race streak without a top-10 finish on a road course.

· Both of Kyle Busch’s top-five finishes in 2025 came on road courses.

· Kyle Busch is set to pass Terry Labonte for most Cup road course starts all-time this weekend (64).

· The driver leading the most laps won 10 of the last 16 road course races.

· Kyle Larson won two of the last nine road course races but his average finish in the other seven races is 29th.

· Hendrick Motorsports has yet to win a road course race this season after winning at least once on road courses every year between 2018 and 2024.

· Hendrick Motorsports leads all teams in poles, wins, top fives, top 10s, laps led and average finish on road courses all-time.

· Hendrick Motorsports drivers won five of the last 12 road course races with three different drivers winning: William Byron and Kyle Larson (twice) and Alex Bowman (once).

· In 8 of the 11 seasons with the elimination-style Playoffs, at least one driver moved to the next round from below the bubble to the Round of 8 in the cutoff race.

· The largest bubble deficit overcome in the Round of 12 cutoff race without a win is 22 points by Chase Elliott (2019).

[embed]

· Twice, a driver won from 19 or more points below the bubble in the Round of 12 cutoff race (Christopher Bell: -45 in 2022) and (Brad Keselowski: -19 in 2014).

· Seven races in 2025 ended in a last-lap pass, the most all-time in a season.

NCS Clinch Scenarios for Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course (Playoff Race #6):

Already Clinched

· The following 2 drivers have clinched a spot in the 8-driver field of the next round: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney.

Can Clinch Via Points

· If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 7th winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Briscoe or Joey Logano.

• Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 3 points

• Denny Hamlin: Would clinch with 9 points

• Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 13 points

• William Byron: Would clinch with 17 points

• Chase Briscoe: Would clinch with 36 points

• Joey Logano: Would clinch with 44 points

• Ross Chastain: Could only clinch with help

• Bubba Wallace: Could only clinch with help

• Tyler Reddick: Could only clinch with help

• Austin Cindric: Could only clinch with help

· If there is a new winner from Ross Chastain or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 6th winless driver in the standings.

• Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 16 points

• Denny Hamlin: Would clinch with 22 points

• Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 26 points

• William Byron: Would clinch with 30 points

• Chase Briscoe: Would clinch with 49 points

• Joey Logano: Could only clinch with help

• Ross Chastain: Could only clinch with help

• Bubba Wallace: Could only clinch with help

• Tyler Reddick: Could only clinch with help

• Austin Cindric: Could only clinch with help

Can Clinch Via Win

· The following drivers would clinch on their win alone: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Cindric.

GFT Facts and Stats Friday: DATA, DRIVER RATINGS

PLAYOFF DRIVER-CHARLOTTE ROVAL SPECIFIC STATISTICS

(Driver stats below are from 2005 — Present)

Chase Elliott (№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) · Two wins, three top fives, five top 10s · Average Finish of 7.714, second-best · Average Running Position of 9.928, third-best · Driver Rating of 109.7, series-best · 592 Laps in the Top 15 (77.3%), third-most

Ryan Blaney (№12 Team Penske Ford) · One win, two top fives, five top 10s, · Average Finish of 10.143, eighth-best · Average Running Position of 13.456, 11th-best · Driver Rating of 91.6, 10th-best · 509 Laps in the Top 15 (66.4%), 11th-most

Kyle Larson (№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) · Two wins, two top fives, two top 10s · Average Finish of 14.667, 13th-best · Average Running Position of 11.522, eighth-best · Driver Rating of 104.8, fifth-best · 469 Laps in the Top 15 (71.4%), eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) · One top five, one top 10, · Average Finish of 16.429, 14th-best · Average Running Position of 17.919, 21st-best · Driver Rating of 74.8, 19th-best · 342 Laps in the Top 15 (44.6%), 21st-most

Christopher Bell (№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) · One win, two top fives, three top 10s, · Average Finish of 10.000, sixth-best · Average Running Position of 10.427, fifth-best · Driver Rating of 96.5, seventh-best · 420 Laps in the Top 15 (76.6%), fifth-most

William Byron (№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) · Two top fives, four top 10s, one pole · Average Finish of 11.143, ninth-best · Average Running Position of 9.626, second-best · Driver Rating of 107.2, third-best · 598 Laps in the Top 15 (78.1%), second-most

Chase Briscoe (№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota) · One top 10 · Average Finish of 24.000, 29th-best · Average Running Position of 22.987, 29th-best · Driver Rating of 58.2, 29th-best · 104 Laps in the Top 15 (23.7%), 29th-most

Joey Logano (№22 Team Penske Ford) · Two top fives, six top 10s, one pole · Average Finish of 8.571, fifth-best · Average Running Position of 11.495, seventh-best · Driver Rating of 96.3, eighth-best · 517 Laps in the Top 15 (67.5%), 10th-most

Ross Chastain (№1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet) · One top 10 · Average Finish of 24.167, 31st-best · Average Running Position of 25.449, 36th-best · Driver Rating of 52.8, 32nd-best · 131 Laps in the Top 15 (19.9%), 31st-most

Bubba Wallace (№23 23XI Racing Toyota) · Two top 10s · Average Finish of 18.143, 19th-best · Average Running Position of 20.870, 24th-best · Driver Rating of 64.6, 24th-best · 213 Laps in the Top 15 (27.8%), 25th-most

Tyler Reddick (№45 23XI Racing Toyota) · One top five, three top 10s, one pole · Average Finish of 7.800, third-best · Average Running Position of 11.174, sixth-best · Driver Rating of 101.7, sixth-best · 393 Laps in the Top 15 (71.7%), seventh-most

Austin Cindric (№2 Team Penske Ford) · One top five, one top 10 · Average Finish of 16.667, 16th-best · Average Running Position of 15.257, 16th-best · Driver Rating of 77.1, 17th-best · 181 Laps in the Top 15 (54.8%), 14th-most

Of the Round of 12 Playoff drivers, Hendrick Motorsports owns the top Driver Ratings (Elliott, Byron, Larson).

DRIVERS TO WATCH: Tyler Reddick with the 4th highest Driver Rating at 101.7, is essentially in a must-win scenario. In 5 starts, Reddick has a Pole, a Top 5, and 3 Top 10s. Austin Cindric has the 8th highest Driver Rating at 77.1, but has been strong on the ROVAL in the Xfinity Series and in 3 Cup Series starts has a Top 5 and a Top 10.

GFT Box Scores

Driver: Denny Hamlin leads all drivers with 5 wins

Manufacturer: With Chase Elliott’s victory at Kansas, Chevrolet moves back into the lead with 13 wins so far in the 2025 NASCAR Cup season

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing leads with 11 wins, Hendrick Motorsports is P2 with 7

GFT AI Race Prediction Model results for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway: Points = 273 (*Setting a new season high for the 2nd week in a row) League Rank = 98 (vs 137 a week ago) out of 5,335 players GFT AI 1 Bot vs All Players = GFT AI 1 Bot is outperforming 98.17% of all players in the #TMDNASCAR Fantasy League

Using the GFT AI Race Prediction models, here is our entry for the NASCAR Playoffs Grid Challenge. Accurately picked 11 of the Round of 12 drivers.

Initial NASCAR Fantasy LIVE GFT AI Race Prediction model picks for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

Initial GFT Fast Five: Shane van Gisbergen, Reddick, Elliott, Allmendinger, and Logano, with Cindric in the Garage.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday, when the data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle and check the feed on Sunday. Then set your #NASCARFantasyLIVE lineup and place your bets.