Dante’s Inferno

Trial By Fire

Pride of Arras winning the 2025 Dante (Source: Edward Whitaker via Racing Post)

To those whose Derby ambitions wither away on the Knavesmire, “Abandon hope, all ye who enter here” is a quote that seems rather fitting. Dante Alighieri, the originator of said quote, is of course most well-known for his magnum opus, Divine Comedy, a poem which is divided into three parts: Inferno, Purgatorio, and Paradiso. Of course, to those obsessed with all things horse racing, Dante’s name conjures notions of something rather less hellish, namely one of the stand-out Derby trials run each year.

Unsurprisingly, the Dante itself takes its name from a racehorse rather than a 14th Century Italian poet; the equine Dante in question was the Yorkshire-trained winner of the Derby substitute at Newmarket in 1945 (Not forgetting his wins in the 1944 Coventry and Middle Park). The race has itself become one of the best trials for Epsom’s Blue Riband, with only the 2,000 Guineas traditionally perceived as a race that could better prepare 3yo colts for the unique demands of the Derby (At least in the eyes of British trainers).

What trainers perceive to be the most suitable preparation is not necessarily one and the same as the actual best preparation however. Doctors differ, patients die, and what suits one horse is not necessarily the best course of action for a different 3yo colt. But with each and every year come new datapoints; the results of each trial give us a sense of which races have acted as the best pointer towards Epsom success.

Without further ado, let us take a look at all Derby winners this side of 2000 and the trials in which they ran….

Derby winners this century and the trials in which they ran (And the position in which they came in their trial)

The Dante comes out second best when it comes to producing subsequent Derby winners, with the 2,000 Guineas instead asserting itself as #1. The Ballysax takes bronze, with maidens next although Serpentine did run in two maidens which somewhat distorts the figures (Ruler of the World and Harzand the other two post-2000 Derby winners to break their maiden at 3). The Cashel Palace and the Chester Vase are next best, with Lambourn’s back-to-back wins at Chester and Epsom fairly fresh in the memory.

The Sandown Classic Trial had one Derby winner between 2000 and 2025 although Adayar came 2nd at the Esher track rather than winning the trial. The Epsom Blue Riband has noticeably not had a Derby winner in that timeframe.

Next, let us instead focus on all horses to place in the Derby between 2000 and 2025 and their races in the run-up to the Derby….

Derby-placed horses this century and the trials in which they ran (And the position in which they came in their trial)

The Dante usurps the 2,000 Guineas as far as producing Derby-placed horses this side of 2000 goes. The results here are broadly similar to those of the Derby winners although the Ballysax falls below the Cashel Palace, Chester Vase, and maidens.

The Epsom Blue Riband Trial has produced two Derby-placed horses in all while the Dee Stakes has produced three, not exactly the most auspicious news for those who have backed Constitution River.

Next, let us switch sexes and look at the trials which have been the most successful in terms of producing future Oaks winners.

Oaks winners this century and the trials in which they ran (And the position in which they came in their trial)

Much like how the 2,000 Guineas is the best source of Derby winners, no trial has produced more Oaks winners this millennium than the 1,000 Guineas. There is a three-way tie for 2nd, with the Musidora, Irish 1,000 Guineas, and Cheshire Oaks all providing four Oaks winners between 2000 and 2025. There were three instances of Oaks winners running in maidens in the months leading up to Epsom while the Newmarket version of the Pretty Polly has seen Ouija Board amongst others go on to claim the spoils in the 1m4f fillies’ Classic.

Next, let’s take a look at which trials have been the most reliable source of Oaks-placed horses since the turn of the century….

Oaks-placed horses this century and the trials in which they ran (And the position in which they came in their trial)

Again, the 1,000 Guineas comes out on top; this time though, maidens come 2nd ahead of the Musidora in 3rd. The Cheshire Oaks is a long way back in 4th while the Irish 1,000 Guineas and the Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury are 5th and 6th respectively.

Of course, it is almost impossible to talk about the modern day Derby and Oaks without making reference to a certain Aidan O’Brien. With 11 wins in both the Derby and the Oaks, the way in which Aidan has campaigned his Derby hopefuls will have had an obvious impact on our findings above.

Aidan does have his preferences though; one of his preferred pathways to the Downs runs through Newmarket, with Camelot, Australia, Auguste Rodin, and City Of Troy all running in the 2,000 Guineas before going on to win the Derby. This can be seen in the table below which takes all of Aidan’s runners in the Derby since 2000 and breaks them down by the trials they ran in….

Aidan O’Brien’s Derby runners this century, their Derby result, and and the trials in which they ran

The 2,000 Guineas outranks all others when it comes to supplying Aidan O’Brien-trained Derby winners; the Ballysax and Chester Vase are next along with maidens. The Cashel Palace is the most frequent source of Derby runners-up for the Ballydoyle maestro, with the 2,000 Guineas, Ballysax, and Chester Vase all tied for 2nd. When it comes to the bronze medal (Or at least Epsom’s equivalent), the Cashel Palace is again #1. Indeed, Leopardstown’s May Derby trial has seen 31 Aidan O’Brien-trained runners go on to run in the Derby itself; Leopardstown’s other Derby trial in the shape of the Ballysax is next on 25, with maidens, the Chester Vase, and the 2,000 Guineas rounding out the top five. The Dante has supplied a mere 8 Aidan O’Brien-trained Derby runners, the most successful of which was Japan who came 3rd in the 2019 Derby.

Let us next perform the same analysis but this time focus on the Oaks rather than the Derby….

Aidan O’Brien’s Oaks runners this century, their Oaks result, and the trials in which they ran

This time, there’s a tie at the top, with the 1,000 Guineas and the Irish 1,000 Guineas both equally productive when it comes to providing Aidan O’Brien with Oaks winners. The only other two trials to produce more than one Oaks winner for Aidan are the Cheshire Oaks and the Musidora. Maidens are the most common source of AOB silver medallists in the Oaks, followed by the 1,000 Guineas in 2nd, the Irish equivalent in 3rd, and then the Cheshire Oaks and the Musidora again along with the Salsabil in joint 4th. Only the Cheshire Oaks and maidens have yielded more than one 3rd-placed finisher in the Oaks for Aidan. Notably, maidens outrank all other races by a comfortable distance when it comes to all of Aidan’s runners in the Oaks this side of 2000.

On the whole, there are a couple of conclusions which we can derive from the above. The 2,000 Guineas has been the most fruitful source of Derby winners while no trial for fillies performs any better than the 1,000 Guineas when it comes to producing Oaks winners. The next best Derby trial has been the Dante, with the Ballysax, Cashel Palace, and Chester Vase rounding out the top five.

However, the success of the two Leopardstown races plus the longer distance Chester trial owe a lot to Aidan O’Brien; as a general rule of thumb, he has sent his best Derby hopes to Newmarket, Leopardstown, and Chester. The Dante on the other hand seems like the best Derby trial for British trainers whilst Aidan’s Dante runners would by and large deem Epsom to be more like equine hell than equine paradise.

Switching back to the fillies, the Musidora, Cheshire Oaks, Irish 1,000 Guineas, and Pretty Polly have arguably been the most successful Epsom trials. While Aidan has not had much luck in the Pretty Polly, his Musidora runners have generally had a better time of it on the Downs than their Dante counterparts.

What does this all mean? Well, given Gstaad will not run in the Derby, past trends would lead you to think that Benvenuto Cellini, Pierre Bonnard, and possibly Endorsement and Proposition will be Aidan’s Derby runners while the campaigns of both Christmas Day and Action would hint that he does not see them as his best Derby prospects. Similarly, Amelia Earhart and possibly Precise would fit the bill when it comes to likely AOB Oaks runners.

Nothing is cast in stone in racing and while the above hints at trends that have come to light over the years, there is no guarantee that these trends shall endure indefinitely. After all, Christmas Day could come early for some this year….