AI winter is coming: what the future holds for the average developer

We can all feel it. Things are changing. The AI revolution is here, and it is here to stay. For those just starting their careers in tech, as well as for the most experienced engineers, this can be scary. You may be asking yourself: Will there still be a need for my role in a few years?

Not only is the future uncertain, but it is also hard to keep up with the present. The pace of change is unlike anything we’ve experienced before. Every week brings with it a new model and new capabilities. There is always something new to learn. It can feel like if you are not keeping up, you are falling behind. People publish blog posts about experimenting with the latest tools, and you might wonder where they find the time.

Let’s pause for a moment and breathe. It’s going to be okay.

Here is my perspective on where we stand and what you can do to stay relevant in this new AI-driven world.

Will programming disappear?

Jevon’s Paradox states that when a technology makes something more efficient and cheaper, people often end up using more of it, not less.

A good example comes from radiology. AI was expected to replace radiologists, but instead, it expanded the use of imaging and increased demand for professionals in the field.

We are likely to see software development follow a similar path. As barriers decrease, more industries will adopt coding solutions, and digitization will accelerate.

Interfaces to the rescue

What programmers do best is build better interfaces. We’ve seen this with object-oriented programming and the shift to cloud computing, where entire infrastructures are now available at your fingertips. The same pattern will emerge in AI.

Do you really think you’ll need to manually create AI agent skills a year from now? It’s more likely that algorithms will handle much of that work automatically.

While it is important to engage with AI and learn new tools, you do not need to be at the cutting edge at all times. Interfaces will improve, and the gap will become easier to manage.

Employment: A double-edged sword

As AI enables faster feature development and creates more value for customers, it’s natural to assume that fewer people will be needed. To some extent, this is true.

However, companies must also consider competition. If your competitors are hiring more engineers and delivering more value, can you afford to stand still? Would you risk losing market share?

Juniors to the Rescue

In the short term, there may be fewer entry-level programming roles. At the same time, senior engineers are becoming more expensive as demand increases. This could push companies to hire more junior developers to balance costs.

A recent example supports this trend.

IBM announced that it is increasing its hiring of Gen Z entry-level workers after encountering limits in AI adoption.

At the same time, large tech companies continue to lay off employees, often citing AI as a factor. In reality, reasons for layoffs change, but layoff cycles do not.

My prediction is that roles will evolve, but hiring will continue to grow.

Practical Steps to Stay Ahead

The Human Factor: The Age of Knowledge

In every role I have held, I have invested time in understanding the broader system. This is not a one-time effort. It is an ongoing process.

Go beyond your immediate responsibilities. Explore the codebase. Understand how different components interact. Build a mental model that connects user interactions to backend infrastructure.

As AI improves, engineers will increasingly work across multiple stacks and services. A more generalist role will emerge. Those who can operate across the full system will stand out.

This is not a new idea. These individuals have always existed in tech. They are the people others turn to for answers. If you want to succeed in the AI era, cultivate curiosity and depth of understanding.

Do Not Miss the AI Shift

AI is not a passing trend. It is accelerating rapidly. If you have not started using AI tools, now! is the time. Even if you tried them a few years ago and were unimpressed, the landscape has changed dramatically.

Ignoring AI will have a direct impact on your daily work and future opportunities.

Maintain Your Competitive Edge

Before starting a task, ask yourself how AI can help. Apply this mindset to your entire workflow.

If you are a developer, do not limit AI to writing code. Use it for research, task planning, technical design, and understanding unfamiliar systems.

The more you integrate AI into your daily work, the more effective you will become.

What the future holds

I enjoy thought experiments, especially imagining what it was like in 1999 when the internet was just becoming a household commodity.

I could never have guessed how the internet would shape the world over the next 20 years, and I believe the same holds true for AI.

For those who have witnessed the rise of the internet, cloud computing, and now AI, it is clear that we are only scratching the surface.

Yes, the way we write code is changing, but the possibilities being unlocked thanks to AI are limitless.

Enjoy the journey.

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